tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Storm Vista produces a snowfall accumulation with the NAM model output. I thought I'd just post what it says. It just came out... Orange, Rockland, western dutchess, western putnam, and western westchester, all of eastern NJ east of I 287, all of NYC, excluding eastern Queens and eastern Brooklyn: 8-12 inches Eastern dutchess, eastern putnam, eastern westchester, western connecticut, eastern queens and eastern brooklyn, all of long island: 12-18 inches Central and eastern Connecticut: 18-24 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I've been saying all along...0.75"-1.25" total QPF. With the highest amounts north and east of the city. I like a 12-1 ratio in NJ and a 10-1 or 8-1 from the city on eastward. As far as where the best banding is going to setup, I would put my faith in the NAM and the high res short term models...and if they verify the whole area is going to be very happy. Unfortunalty for western NJ, it looks like the same areas that got crused with the boxing day event cash in again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 <br />only in reverse in type of storm...<br /><br /><br /><br />Very True.This should give us an excellent shot at 50 inches for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Pretty cool to see TSSN showing up on the 6z as this site has not updated for 12z yet. http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_kjfk.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ETA looks really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Can you take a look at the 00z nam please, and then tell me how much it shifted....you guys took the 6z nam hook line and sinker geeees. the western areas are a little sharper cutoff i understand but all in all discounting the crazy 6z run it is right on pace with previous runs. If I recall a few of the previous nam runs showed a run like the 6 z run. Overall, storm will be a solid to outstanding event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Storm Vista produces a snowfall accumulation with the NAM model output. I thought I'd just post what it says. It just came out... Orange, Rockland, western dutchess, western putnam, and western westchester, all of eastern NJ east of I 287, all of NYC, excluding eastern Queens and eastern Brooklyn: 8-12 inches Eastern dutchess, eastern putnam, eastern westchester, western connecticut, eastern queens and eastern brooklyn, all of long island: 12-18 inches Central and eastern Connecticut: 18-24 inches So the western most NAM is showing 8-12 for NYC while the GFS is closer to 4-8. Seems like 6-10 is the right number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Storm Vista produces a snowfall accumulation with the NAM model output. I thought I'd just post what it says. It just came out... Orange, Rockland, western dutchess, western putnam, and western westchester, all of eastern NJ east of I 287, all of NYC, excluding eastern Queens and eastern Brooklyn: 8-12 inches Eastern dutchess, eastern putnam, eastern westchester, western connecticut, eastern queens and eastern brooklyn, all of long island: 12-18 inches Central and eastern Connecticut: 18-24 inches That sounds like only around 10:1, or maybe 12:1 for long island, wonder if ratio's might be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Pretty cool to see TSSN showing up on the 6z as this site has not updated for 12z yet. http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_kjfk.txt Has about 14" for EWR and TEB and 14.5" for CDW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 yea, we are all in good shape... too bad a lot of it may come overnight. I was really hoping to get sleep. I wish it was all during the daytime.. but it might be worth staying up to watch these insane snowfall rates.. and I suppose it will be snowing hard in the morning too, so it's cool Jay how much of it will accumulate during the daytime tomorrow-- like, after sunrise lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That's from the 6z run Has about 14" for EWR and TEB and 14.5" for CDW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 anyone else think the snow distribution will be very February 9 1969 ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Jay how much of it will accumulate during the daytime tomorrow-- like, after sunrise lol? The NAM has pretty much most of the measurable QPF happening by 12Z.. then most of the additional QPF is extreme eastern sections like Suffolk county and Central - eastern connecticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That sounds like only around 10:1, or maybe 12:1 for long island, wonder if ratio's might be better They wont be better than 12:1 with this set up.. might even have to worry about some dry air in extreme eastern parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxClimate Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What we're gonna have to watch is just how well the coastal low develops. I think the 6Z and 12Z NAM are both entirely plausible at this stage in the game. It's going to all depend just how much convection kicks off and how rapidly things take shape. Comparing MODIS SSTs (picked the same time of day and a few days ahead of the storm to get a cloud free picture), looks like near coastal waters of NJ and LI are much colder than they were before the Boxing Day storm. This favors a track to the east of the Boxing Day storm ... HOWEVER, coastal waters off of Hatteras are WARMER! Since surface based cyclogenesis is partially based on the Laplacian of surface temperatures, I wonder if this storm might start to develop faster than the models are predicting. Interesting trade-off ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think at this point disregard the GFS qpf outputs... The Euro and and Canadian represent the basic track pretty well and the NAM shows that somewhere, probably in CT, will get 2'+ of snow. The rates with this storm might even be higher than the Boxing Day Storm which is hard to imagine, just wont last as long in the same spot for 10 hours with out moving West into NW Jers sad times... Ooo and thundersnow again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well it does look like the heaviest banding sets up over those areas...and with the rapid deepening happening, probably see a mega band putting down 3-4" per hour at times? lol the same areas that got killed with a foot plus from the norlun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hey, thanks for those graphics! Ive always been interested in obtaining SST data like that at all times of the year-- where can we access that data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Storm Vista produces a snowfall accumulation with the NAM model output. I thought I'd just post what it says. It just came out... Orange, Rockland, western dutchess, western putnam, and western westchester, all of eastern NJ east of I 287, all of NYC, excluding eastern Queens and eastern Brooklyn: 8-12 inches Very interesting, I think as someone else said really somewhere in the middle maybe the best call, say 6-10 inches, though equally I suspect the bullseye probably will be in the 12-14 inch range in those areas you mentioned. Its going to be interesting, I've never actually tracked any US snow systems before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What we're gonna have to watch is just how well the coastal low develops. I think the 6Z and 12Z NAM are both entirely plausible at this stage in the game. It's going to all depend just how much convection kicks off and how rapidly things take shape. Comparing MODIS SSTs (picked the same time of day and a few days ahead of the storm to get a cloud free picture), looks like near coastal waters of NJ and LI are much colder than they were before the Boxing Day storm. This favors a track to the east of the Boxing Day storm ... HOWEVER, coastal waters off of Hatteras are WARMER! Since surface based cyclogenesis is partially based on the Laplacian of surface temperatures, I wonder if this storm might start to develop faster than the models are predicting. Interesting trade-off ... Thanks! excellent observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxClimate Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hey, thanks for those graphics! Ive always been interested in obtaining SST data like that at all times of the year-- where can we access that data? You can get them from Rutgers .... http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_data/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Did Craig Allen call for 12-20 inches for NYC?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You can get them from Rutgers .... http://marine.rutger.../cool/sat_data/ I can tell you right now, models seem to put one heck of a tight gradient to the QPF on the west side. Someone in NJ (whether it be along the Delaware or Hudson) is going to be really screwed with 12"+ just to their east when their looking at 2-4". Its just has to be a nowcast tonight on where the heavy band makes it back to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That sounds like only around 10:1, or maybe 12:1 for long island, wonder if ratio's might be better wow, sharp gradient between manhattan and queens and brooklyn.... 6-12 in the former and 12-18 in the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z QPF JFK http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kjfk.txt 1.32 NYC http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Knyc.txt 1.13 LGA http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KLGA.txt 1.22 ISP http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kisp.txt 1.75 Did Craig Allen call for 12-20 inches for NYC?? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Very interesting, I think as someone else said really somewhere in the middle maybe the best call, say 6-10 inches, though equally I suspect the bullseye probably will be in the 12-14 inch range in those areas you mentioned. Its going to be interesting, I've never actually tracked any US snow systems before You probably got some nice experience with your winters there the past two years in the UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 <br />I can tell you right now, models seem to put one heck of a tight gradient to the QPF on the west side. Someone in NJ (whether it be along the Delaware or Hudson) is going to be really screwed with 12"+ just to their east when their looking at 2-4". <br /><br />Its just has to be a nowcast tonight on where the heavy band makes it back to...<br /><br /><br /><br />MILLER B storms are notorious for there extreme sharp western cutoffs,with the 12/30/00 storm being a textbook example of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 my boss, who is out in the Chicago suburbs, just sent me an instant message they have whiteout conditions now. He knows I used to work in weather so he'll talk weather stuff... but I think he was just buttering me up, cuz after that he is asking for me to pull some data for him for some project. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I've been saying all along...0.75"-1.25" total QPF. With the highest amounts north and east of the city. I like a 12-1 ratio in NJ and a 10-1 or 8-1 from the city on eastward. As far as where the best banding is going to setup, I would put my faith in the NAM and the high res short term models...and if they verify the whole area is going to be very happy. Unfortunalty for western NJ, it looks like the same areas that got crused with the boxing day event cash in again. Definitely having that feeling again, like 12/26, of the heaviest banding over eastern NJ and north east into SE NE as the event pushes on. Will be a nail biter for those of us further west and NW of say ~I-287. Though likely over down, the 6z NAM, does make one keep notice to a tick west with the heaviest of banding. Still expect 4-8" or so far western and NW NJ with 6-9" or so east prior to hitting the heavy banding probably from MMU east. Again, will have to watch for that closely. Regarless of that for my backyard the jackpot is still generally NYC north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z NAM totals: LGA: 1.22" JFK: 1.32" NYC: 1.12" EWR: .93" ISP: 1.75" OKX: 1.87" HPN: 1.38" BDR: 1.87" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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