tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 by hour 27, there isn't too much additional.. mostly suffolk county.. they go over 1.50 inches.. and the 1 inch line spreads a little further back west to include the eastern hudson valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 People saying oh it's east this that when in reality it's what 10miles at most?come on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 1:59 PM, stormchaser said: Its a shame you are using that 6z run of the NAM to benchmark this storm right now whatever, I was just comparing run to run, sorry for doing that i guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The overall position of the storm on the NAM isn't much different, but the heavy precip is significantly northeast when compared to 6z. Tough run for EPA/WNJ. NYC is still over 1.00" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:01 PM, gkrangers said: The overall position of the storm on the NAM isn't much different, but the heavy precip is significantly northeast when compared to 6z. Tough run for EPA/WNJ. NYC is still over 1.00" liquid. WNJ is the official screw zone especially this year.Every storm we miss out by just a few miles on the good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 sharp cutoff once you leave ct Hartford gets nearly 2" this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 interesting that channel 7 bill evans says 12-18 for long island, craig allen says 12-20 - as we know, hes usually the most conservative...but 1010 wins calling for 6-12, with higher on easter long island Craig Allen's live report at 830 called for 12-20...when he goes for these numbers, thats when i get excited... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:00 PM, weatherweather said: whatever, I was just comparing run to run, sorry for doing that i guess? You compared it too soon, saying a wild statement that it's significantly east when it was only out to 12 hrs. That easily makes people think it caved to the GFS when in reality the final product is still pretty damn good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The NAM went insane over central Connecticut.. if you can believe.. it is outputting 1.25 - 1.50 inches of precip in 3 hours... not sure what to say about it.. just telling folks what it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 its the folks west of the city that are complaining and think it went EAST. IT DIDNT...all the nam did was tighten up the precip shield... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:04 PM, ace0927 said: its the folks west of the city that are complaining and think it went EAST. IT DIDNT...all the nam did was tighten up the precip shield... Agree. It's similiar to the 0z run. I don't know why people are comparing it to the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 nam looks perhaps a shade wetter then the 00z euro.....LI gets crushed...and the rest of us do really well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 now hopefully the 12z GFS comes a bit west so we have a better consensus. No matter how much it is discounted, still would like to have the GFS in line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 well true I forgot this is the NYC thread, I was thinking about the people in Philly going from 1" qpf at 6z to barely .5 from this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The same thing happened with the 12/26 event. The last few model runs more or less held serve with the location of the low but shifted the heaviest precip offshore and well...we all know how that one turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 yea, we are all in good shape... too bad a lot of it may come overnight. I was really hoping to get sleep. I wish it was all during the daytime.. but it might be worth staying up to watch these insane snowfall rates.. and I suppose it will be snowing hard in the morning too, so it's cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z NAM ..wow..big hit here..no problems with this run..I think 6z might have given me some mixing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:03 PM, tornadojay said: The NAM went insane over central Connecticut.. if you can believe.. it is outputting 1.25 - 1.50 inches of precip in 3 hours... not sure what to say about it.. just telling folks what it has. Well it does look like the heaviest banding sets up over those areas...and with the rapid deepening happening, probably see a mega band putting down 3-4" per hour at times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:05 PM, Snow88 said: Agree. It's similiar to the 0z run. I don't know why people are comparing it to the 6z run. its fairly close to the 0Z (precip shield), except its WETTER east and north of the nassau suffolk line....and SIGHTLY drier in WNJ and E PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I want snow as much as the next guy, but cmon this is cutting it really close, especially considering how much it shifted in 1 run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Right or wrong, the GFS has been remarkably consistent so I don't anticipate a big jump either way. Although since it has been an outlier even compared to its own ensembles there is still a chance. On 1/11/2011 at 2:06 PM, easternliwx said: now hopefully the 12z GFS comes a bit west so we have a better consensus. No matter how much it is discounted, still would like to have the GFS in line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:06 PM, easternliwx said: now hopefully the 12z GFS comes a bit west so we have a better consensus. No matter how much it is discounted, still would like to have the GFS in line. I would feel much better if the 12Z GFS met us half way, and gave 0.75qpf to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The NAM 0z position is in the same spot as the Euro was from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:09 PM, CAT5ANDREW said: ZOMG I want to kill myself.I may only get 10 inches of snow in Queens when I was supposed to get 12.What a tragedy this winter sucks. 12z NAM shows 1.25"-1.50" for all of Queens with the 1.50" line on the Nassau border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:10 PM, KEITH L.I said: <br />12z NAM ..wow..big hit here..no problems with this run..I think 6z might have given me some mixing issues<br /><br /><br /><br />You are going to get buried Keith.This is similar to JAN/FEB 1978 with 2 big storms in less than 3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:14 PM, CAT5ANDREW said: <br /><br /><br /> You are going to get buried Keith.This is similar to JAN/FEB 1978 with 2 big storms in less than 3 weeks. only in reverse in type of storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:14 PM, CAT5ANDREW said: <br /><br /><br /> You are going to get buried Keith.This is similar to JAN/FEB 1978 with 2 big storms in less than 3 weeks. yep..quite a winter so far..very surprised considering it's a strong Nina and the seasonal forecasts that were issued in the fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:14 PM, algreek3 said: <br />12z NAM shows 1.25"-1.50" for all of Queens with the 1.50" line on the Nassau border.<br /><br /><br /><br />I know.That was a sarcasam post for those who are whining here.I just hope this snow is not as packed and dense as it was for the blizzard.We still have a lot of snow left over from that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:12 PM, weatherweather said: I want snow as much as the next guy, but cmon this is cutting it really close, especially considering how much it shifted in 1 run. Can you take a look at the 00z nam please, and then tell me how much it shifted....you guys took the 6z nam hook line and sinker geeees. the western areas are a little sharper cutoff i understand but all in all discounting the crazy 6z run it is right on pace with previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.