IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 FWIW, pretty big shift westward on the 23 RUC vs 22 RUC...now brings its heavier band almost to PHI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 23z RUC really ramps up those uvv's all the way up to NE jersey and central-westchester south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I know it is NWS Albany, but I thought I would share their latest AFD update: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY637 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011.SYNOPSIS...A COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH SNOW TONIGHT ANDWEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY BUT COLD WEATHERTHURSDAY AND FRIDAY.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE SURFACE LOW IS A BIT CLOSERTO THE COAST. BUOYS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND COASTAL METARSREVEAL CONVERGENT SIGNATURES NEAR BUOY 41025 /DIAMOND SHOALS/ WITHDECENT PRESSURE FALL...NOW SHARPLY RISING. IF THESE TRENDS AREINDEED FURTHER WEST...WE WILL NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LATER THISEVENING TO HEADLINES AND ACCUMULATIONS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 23z RUC really ramps up those uvv's all the way up to NE jersey and central-westchester south and east Good to hear. Again, I would not be surprised if the deform band shifts westward..always seems to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 BTW Its snowing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Things blossoming near/west of ACY: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 So much for the silly Henry Margusity theory this was going to be "pushed" east by the OV surface low. Shameful and awful meteorology. This thing is going to begin tanking--and it is still hugging the coast. Pressure falls are also hugging the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 FWIW, pretty big shift westward on the 23 RUC vs 22 RUC...now brings its heavier band almost to PHI The 3-hr pressure fall charts show that the very wrapped in solution is still in play here. That charts suggests a track maybe not even 75 miles off the NJ coast. You'd better believe almost everyone from the GSP on east gets slammed if that's the case. As baroclinic said, still a highly changeable and fluid situation. There's a TON of energy heading through WV and PA right now toward the coast ready to blow the whole powderkeg. It's literally like the string slowly igniting toward the dynamite stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I know it is NWS Albany, but I thought I would share their latest AFD update: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY637 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011.SYNOPSIS...A COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH SNOW TONIGHT ANDWEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY BUT COLD WEATHERTHURSDAY AND FRIDAY.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE SURFACE LOW IS A BIT CLOSERTO THE COAST. BUOYS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND COASTAL METARSREVEAL CONVERGENT SIGNATURES NEAR BUOY 41025 /DIAMOND SHOALS/ WITHDECENT PRESSURE FALL...NOW SHARPLY RISING. IF THESE TRENDS AREINDEED FURTHER WEST...WE WILL NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LATER THISEVENING TO HEADLINES AND ACCUMULATIONS... Fully agree with this. I have no idea why everyone was worrying when the surface low was analyzed way lower and close to the coast this whole time. Latest pressure analysis has the greatest pressure falls along the coast upstream of the surface low...tracking this along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Snow flurries in Larchmont, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The true bombing doesn't happen for another 4-6 hours until the dynamic tropopause ejects over the coast. With the low already tracking along the coast and surface pressure falls progged to keep the low on the coast, this could get quite interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The convective type nature to this system almost certainly means there are surprises in store. You can arleady see the reflectivities are blossoming with very high DBZ returns for a 1012mb surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The true bombing doesn't happen for another 4-6 hours until the dynamic tropopause ejects over the coast. With the low already tracking along the coast and surface pressure falls progged to keep the low on the coast, this could get quite interesting. BI, any ideas on where the possible deform band will setup based on the latest trends? If i remember correctly many of the hi res models had it near the Nassau/Suffolk border up through CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The convective type nature to this system almost certainly means there are surprises in store. You can arleady see the reflectivities are blossoming with very high DBZ returns for a 1012mb surface low. Many reports of Moderate to Heavy snow (down to 1/4 mile vis) in PA right now. But a lot of Sleet/Fr. Rain reports in S NJ, hopefully we dont have to worry about that up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 23z RUC really ramps up those uvv's all the way up to NE jersey and central-westchester south and east I know it is NWS Albany, but I thought I would share their latest AFD update: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY637 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011.SYNOPSIS...A COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH SNOW TONIGHT ANDWEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY BUT COLD WEATHERTHURSDAY AND FRIDAY.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE SURFACE LOW IS A BIT CLOSERTO THE COAST. BUOYS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND COASTAL METARSREVEAL CONVERGENT SIGNATURES NEAR BUOY 41025 /DIAMOND SHOALS/ WITHDECENT PRESSURE FALL...NOW SHARPLY RISING. IF THESE TRENDS AREINDEED FURTHER WEST...WE WILL NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LATER THISEVENING TO HEADLINES AND ACCUMULATIONS... The radar looks very far west to me in the early stages, and I like how the RUC rips the heavy banding onto central NJ and eventually up here. I was beginning to worry Westchester was out of the game for the heaviest snows, but the coastal tracking further west than expected, the radar, and the 23z RUC make me think otherwise. I really like the way this storm looks right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Just in from Upton AFD .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --MAJOR SNOW STORM OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTENSIFIES AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTHEAST OF MONTAUK WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAJOR SNOW EVENT OVERNIGHT. RADAR RETURNS BEGINNING TO REALLY BLOSSOM ACROSS SE PA AND S NJ AT THIS TIME. TIMING OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FORWARD BY 1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS NYC TERMINALS IN RESPONSE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A RAPID FALL IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS AS SN MOVES IN QUICKLY THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH. WINDS BACK TOWARDS AM AS LOW PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THE HEAVY SN TO BE ENDING EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS...MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS. THEN OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDS IN BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY EAST OF NYC TERMINALS. CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MAY HAMPER SNOW REMOVAL ON WED. EXPECT THUNDER SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THE BANDED PCPN AREAS (NOT IN TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF TIME AND LOCATION). SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1 INCH/HOUR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 2-3+ INCHES/HOUR IN HEAVIER BANDS. HEAVIEST BAND STILL LOOKS TO BE OVER CT AND LONG ISLAND - THOUGH THIS MAY SHIFT BACK INTO THE NYC METRO. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1.5 FT PLUS LIKELY IN BANDED REGIONS...8 TO 12 OUTSIDE TO OVER WESTERN SECTIONS. WINDS GUST...HIGHEST EAST...AS STORM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND PULL AWAY LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 There will be some memorable times between roughly 06 and 09z...these UVV's are impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The convective type nature to this system almost certainly means there are surprises in store. You can arleady see the reflectivities are blossoming with very high DBZ returns for a 1012mb surface low. This definitely is the meteo equivalent of a string igniting toward a powder keg. 6 hours from now should just be incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 So much for the silly Henry Margusity theory this was going to be "pushed" east by the OV surface low. Shameful and awful meteorology. This thing is going to begin tanking--and it is still hugging the coast. Pressure falls are also hugging the coast. When dynamics "advect to ignite", there is NO pushing....I agree. If anything, weak waves that intensify rapidly under improving divergence take an inevitable left hand wobble, before vertical alignment takes place. In this case, the "wobble" will happen quite quickly as the wave and the UL dynamics are essentially on a collision course, as opposed to the traditional vertical tilt -> stacking process, where there is more of a dance to alignment....This thing is going to explode!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 There will be some memorable times between roughly 06 and 09z...these UVV's are impressive. agreed, RUC at H7 and H85 looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Many reports of Moderate to Heavy snow (down to 1/4 mile vis) in PA right now. But a lot of Sleet/Fr. Rain reports in S NJ, hopefully we dont have to worry about that up here. The dynamics aren't really in play yet, they're still west in PA. When they get here and heights begin to crater and the storm detonate like a volcano, that should be long gone. Snow growth isn't that impressive yet either for anyone near us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 This definitely is the meteo equivalent of a string igniting toward a powder keg. 6 hours from now should just be incredible. say what you will about the miller A monsters making their way up the coast, the explosion of miller B's are just amazing to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The latest RUC is likely a slam dunk hit for most of coastal and northeast NJ..NYC..LI and similar areas. The simulated radar from the 23z run at 8 hrs is extremely impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 You guys will be in the hvy snow soon. It's coming down hard here in Villanova PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Just looked too big to be pellets that's all If it's light, they sure can. Why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 BI, any ideas on where the possible deform band will setup based on the latest trends? If i remember correctly many of the hi res models had it near the Nassau/Suffolk border up through CT Tough call. I don't think the 12Z SPC wrf was bad at all--and we need to watch trends. If this stays along the coast, 06Z NAM might not be out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Impressive forecast reflectivities off the 23z RUC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The latest RUC is likely a slam dunk hit for most of coastal and northeast NJ..NYC..LI and similar areas. The simulated radar from the 23z run at 8 hrs is extremely impressive. Maybe cancel the trip to Long Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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