Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I mentioned the radar reminds me of that event, but that secondary low was way weaker and also formed way more north off C or S NJ....the mixing was also well forecast on that event though it persisted longer...however, it only impacted the immediate coast as well...southern LI saw sleet all evening while LGA and NYC were all snow...there was also FZDZ all day leading into the event. Yeah, you're right...the events really weren't all that similar. However, in that storm, once the coastal got going, we got absolutely rocked for a short period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Remember for the RUC ever since it went past 12 hours, it consistently has winter storms further west than reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Take a look at the WV LOOP. You can see a dry slow forming in OH working its way into PA. Should help to enhance the precip on the eastern side which I think is the reason why the radar in PA has been filling in the last few hours. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Remember for the RUC ever since it went past 12 hours, it consistently has winter storms further west than reality. very true in terms of track, precip wise its always hard to tell since with the NCEP maps you can't get an 18hr total map. I could see the track being further east while the precip is less so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Seems like we are at a Crossroads with this storm some people forecasters cutting things down some still thinking it will be big even west of where the Models show the heaviest Precip. I think this is where U see who who is just a model reader and Hugger and who actually knows weather and setups. For Example a weather tool like Henry M is now saying this is just a Boston storm as Primary low is gonna push Secondary low too far East..Basically a Storm cancel for NY and NJ while others still are saying heavy bands will make it back into NJ and 8-12 inches can still be seen in parts of NJ into the City. That is 2 completely different camps even Ch 2 news already stating they may have to lower totals. Will be interesting to see who is right and how right or wrong the Models really are(ie GFS)... From my perspective 12 hrs ago I was just going to bed thinking Most of NJ into NYC would be 1-2 ft going by the Nam and a couple other short range models... It has been disappointing seeing the Guidance all going the other way with the heavy precip as My Area N-Central NJ looks like its precip is cut in half if not more. Anyway maybe a surprise or two is still in Store and will be a curious to see the evolution of this storm as we go through the night. EDIT just watched Lee G ch 7 has my area in the 6-9 band but he seems low as he has 12-18 as the jackpot LI into Conn.. Have seen Conn 18-24 in alot of other forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Take a look at the WV LOOP. You can see a dry slow forming in OH working its way into PA. Should help to enhance the precip on the eastern side which I think is the reason why the radar in PA has been filling in the last few hours. http://www.nws.noaa....age=wv&hours=24 Yes. That is the trough digging and the jet strengthening. The coastal low will start to strengthen soon as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Seems like we are at a Crossroads with this storm some people forecasters cutting things down some still thinking it will be big even west of where the Models show the heaviest Precip. I think this is where U see who who is just a model reader and Hugger and who actually knows weather and setups. For Example a weather tool like Henry M is now saying this is just a Boston storm as Primary low is gonna push Secondary low too far East..Basically a Storm cancel for NY and NJ while others still are saying heavy bands will make it back into NJ and 8-12 inches can still be seen in parts of NJ into the City. That is 2 completely different camps even Ch 2 news already stating they may have to lower totals. Will be interesting to see who is right and how right or wrong the Models really are(ie GFS)... From my perspective 12 hrs ago I was just going to bed thinking Most of NJ into NYC would be 1-2 ft going by the Nam and a couple other short range models... It has been disappointing seeing the Guidance all going the other way with the heavy precip as My Area N-Central NJ looks like its precip is cut in half if not more. Anyway maybe a surprise or two is still in Store and will be a curious to see the evolution of this storm as we go through the night. EDIT just watched Lee G ch 7 has my area in the 6-9 band but he seems low as he has 12-18 as the jackpot LI into Conn.. Have seen Conn 18-24 in alot of other forecasts. I don't understand what the worrying and sudden shifts in forecast thoughts are coming from. Henry M needs a refresher in dynamics I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I don't understand what the worrying and sudden shifts in forecast thoughts are coming from. Henry M needs a refresher in dynamics I think. Seriously. As I said before, people should not be looking at the radar until at least 8pm. Here is the simulated radar from the very wet NMM valid for 4pm and 7pm, respectively. Look at how "dry" it is for those times. http://www.nco.ncep....sw_ref_009l.gif http://www.nco.ncep....sw_ref_012l.gif The storm is really not supposed to get going until at least 7, 8, or 9pm...the radar now is really nothing to worry about. People should just relax for the next few hours, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 One of you has the WeatherTap Northeast radar....can you post it please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Seriously. As I said before, people should not be looking at the radar until at least 8pm. Here is the simulated radar from the very wet NMM valid for 4pm and 7pm, respectively. Look at how "dry" it is for those times. http://www.nco.ncep....sw_ref_009l.gif http://www.nco.ncep....sw_ref_012l.gif The storm is really not supposed to get going until at least 7, 8, or 9pm...the radar now is really nothing to worry about. People should just relax for the next few hours, IMO. And to be completely honest the radar doesn't show the storm completely together in terms of precip until probably around 03-04z this morning or around midnight. By 6z it has major banding setting up. Should be fun to watch unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What's with that band showing on Upton and Boston radar across northern CT into western MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Seriously. As I said before, people should not be looking at the radar until at least 8pm. Here is the simulated radar from the very wet NMM valid for 4pm and 7pm, respectively. Look at how "dry" it is for those times. http://www.nco.ncep....sw_ref_009l.gif http://www.nco.ncep....sw_ref_012l.gif The storm is really not supposed to get going until at least 7, 8, or 9pm...the radar now is really nothing to worry about. People should just relax for the next few hours, IMO. Right, the SUNY MM5 had a 1016 low SE of NC at 18Z, obs were as low as 1012. 21Z it has a 1015...Hatteras is reporting 1014. MM5 doesn't take off until after 0Z, just as all guidance has been suggesting since at least 2 days ago. Nothing has honestly changed. This whole idea of the OV surface low "shunting" the storm eastward is silliness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 And to be completely honest the radar doesn't show the storm completely together in terms of precip until probably around 03-04z this morning or around midnight. By 6z it has major banding setting up. Should be fun to watch unfold The SPC WRF simulated radar showed no organized precipitation until around that time as well on its 00Z run last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I mentioned the radar reminds me of that event, but that secondary low was way weaker and also formed way more north off C or S NJ....the mixing was also well forecast on that event though it persisted longer...however, it only impacted the immediate coast as well...southern LI saw sleet all evening while LGA and NYC were all snow...there was also FZDZ all day leading into the event. That was a weird but dynamic storm indeed. I was frustrated as anyone listening to sleet pinging outside my window for hours while Times Square was getting heavy snow, but when it finally changed over I had close to 10" in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I don't think I've ever seen the 70/40/10 lines so close to each other. The degree of confidence the last map expresses for where the 12"+ will be is astounding. I hope they are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Radar starting to pop in NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=OKX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes radar is startin to pop kids... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 <br />One of you has the WeatherTap Northeast radar....can you post it please <img src="http://img.amwx.us/public/style_emoticons/default/smile.gif" /><br /> I tried posting it earlier.. The upload onto tiny pic was giving me problems for some reason.. It was only letting me upload satellite pics successfully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 you'll go with a met who has a bad reputation as opposed to all of the amazing mets who post on this forum? Great move. Also if you dont have realistic expectations for this storm then it may appear to be a bust but anyone expecting more than 10 in NYC and 6 from E. Pa to western jersey is setting themselves up for a disappointment. But it not being a big deal for NYC? I would not buy that at this juncture since only 0.4to 0.5 of QPF with 12 or 13-1 ratios still yields around 7 inches which is a nothing to sneeze at. No model has this little QPF btw even the GFS which initialized WAY too far east with the coastal still brings the .75 line into queens and the bronx and gets at least .65-.7 into NYC proper. He still says 6-8 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So basically this hits hard from midnight to 8AM and then the sun's out at 9:30AM? Just an 8 hour super pounding? Do any models show at least a 12-15 hour duration? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hit refresh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Everyone should also realize this storm is convective in nature and thus it will go from zero to 100 in a blink of an eye. The precip rates are progged to be as much as .60 in a three hour time and it won't build up to that, it will just happen. This is a truly unique setup, and there is high bust potential both ways. A lot will be learned as to how the various models handle these situations and going forward we can all adjust our forecasts appropriately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes radar is startin to pop kids... intial WAA, not the show, look down to the Delmarva area, thats where the cookie jar is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 He still says 6-8 for NYC Actually not a bad call...my call (if anyone cares) for selected sites... nyc-9.3 jfk-10.5 lga-9 isp-14.6 okx-16.8 hpn-11.2 bdl-19.4 bos-17.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 is that virga?..if not snow will start very soon in the Metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 HM says the radar in VA isnt filling in which is concerning. It looks like there might be an issue with a radar site down there since on the weathertap state view theres nothing in virginia but when i zoom into the DC station I see plenty of activity in Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ratios could be the wild-card for areas that don't get into the HEAVIEST banding. You heard it here first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 IMO everything is going as planned for NYC and northeast. The storm was and is forecasted to explode after 00z tonight and really after 03z. Precip should bloom over NJ/NYC late tonight and really get cranking around 09z where a heavy band will move over or close to NYC and then towards LI..pounding LI, CT, SNE. thats it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 HM says the radar in VA isnt filling in which is concerning. It looks like there might be an issue with a radar site down there since on the weathertap state view theres nothing in virginia but when i zoom into the DC station I see plenty of activity in Virginia. Henry M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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