ArtRosen Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Jesus, if this storm just moves the smallest bit west . . . I would be HAPPY to share some of my snow with you. 25-30 inches is just... that's snow hoarding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm not sure what HPC is looking at with the sleet issues, or even FZRA I am not sure either but going to be monitoring the soundings closely tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Guys, the banter thread is for...well...banter. In this thread, replying to a huge model image with "OMG, that give me oodles of snow" isn't going to cut it. Please stick to discussion of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks reasonable.. Maybe a little conservative for the northern/Western NYC suburbs where better ratios may help with accumulations in lieu of the lower qpf... I saw somewhere on the Albany AFD, that they were going with 15:1 for the HV, and for further north, e.g. ALB, 20:1. The latest AFD is a good read. http://forecast.weat...0&highlight=off Thanks Radders.. The Albany Discussions are always a good read... I think there are some fellow alumni I went to school with at SUNY Albany who work at that office.. they're good folks up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I am not sure either but going to be monitoring the soundings closely tonight. They may have just seen strong easterly flow at some level and not liked it, but I have seen many storms where we have that and the thermal profile is well below 0C everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 will this be the obs thread as well? we cooled off a bit quicker than i expected here so far...down to 26.2 degrees out here on the north shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfreak09 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 contrary to beliefs--- staten island is part of NYC I just put these totals on my website, www.weatherjay.com... Do these look oK? NEW YORK: Rockland: 5-7 inches Westchester: 6-8 inches Orange: 4-6 inches Putnam: 6-8 inches Bronx: 6-8 inches Manhattan: 6-8 inches Queens: 8-10 inches Brooklyn: 8-10 inches Western Nassau: 10-12 inches Central Nassau: 12-16 inches Easten Nassau: 16-20 inches Suffolk: 16-20 inches NEW JERSEY: Eastern Bergen: 6-8 inches Western Bergen: 5-7 inches Hudson: 6-8 inches Eastern Passaic: 6-8 inches Western Passaic: 5-7 inches Essex: 6-8 inches Union: 6-8 inches Eastern Middlesex: 6-8 inches Central Middlesex: 5-7 inches Western Middlesx: 4-6 inches CONNECTICUT: Western Fairfield: 8-10 inches Central Fairfield: 10-12 inches Eastern Fairfield: 12-14 inches Western New Haven: 14-16 inches Eastern New Haven: 16-18 inches Middlesex: 18-20 inches New London: 20-22 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's not that simple since these aren't even close to linear processes we're dealing with. Also, throw the GFS/EC precip forecasts out at your own peril, as their verification has been pretty good this month for these lead times (particularly the EC for amounts <1 inch/24 hours). The coastal on the GFS has initialized east (mostly likely because of a scale issue combined with a lack of surface observations assimilated off the coast)...but it's consistent with other fields (mid levels)....and I'm not sure the track up the coast is going to end up that far off [just an opinion, I'm not an operational forecaster]. It will be a very close call for sure. What is your opinion on the GFS and its ability to potentially simulate such a system? Could it even manage to simulate what some of the nonhydro meso models suggest? Also, what is your opinion on the GFS op decently E wrt its mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 8 FOR EASTERN U.S. WINTER STORM NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 400 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 ...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW TO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS AR IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE OHIO VALLEY...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS...THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV AT 300 PM EST...A 1012 MB...29.89 INCH...SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED SCATTERED BANDS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION OR SNOW MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG COASTAL AREAS FROM NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB...29.92 INCHES...WAS LOCATED OVER OHIO AND MOVING EASTWARD. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAD OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING AHEAD OF THE LOW. ...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 900 AM EST SUN JAN 09 THROUGH 300 PM EST TUE JAN 11... ...IOWA... RINGSTED 12.0 FORT DODGE 5 NNW 9.8 DES MOINES 5 WNW 9.1 MURRAY 8.1 CLIVE 1 E 7.7 NEWTON AIRPORT 3 WNW 6.4 HEATH MEMORIAL CO 3 NNE 6.0 KEOSAUQUA 1 N 5.0 WHAT CHEER 4 E 4.5 DUBUQUE REGIONAL ARPT 2.4 ...ILLINOIS... MORRISONVILLE 6.0 PANA 5.5 WINCHESTER 5.0 NOKOMIS 5 NW 4.8 PEORIA 2 SW 4.7 PLAINVILLE 4.5 KNOXVILLE 4.3 WARSAW 6 SE 3.5 MOLINE QUAD-CITY ARPT 2.7 OHARE AIRPORT 1.9 ...INDIANA... MARION 4.2 ODON 3 SE 3.6 INDIANAPOLIS INTL ARPT 3.5 COVINGTON 3.3 FORT WAYNE 3.0 WASHINGTON 3.0 PERRY 2.5 DUBOIS 2.0 ...KENTUCKY... CINCINNATI - NORTHERN KY ARPT 2.7 CRITTENDON 2.5 LOUISVILLE NWS 1.9 LEXINGTON 1.8 ...MISSOURI... HARRISBURG 1 SSE 6.0 FRANKFORD 5.5 MEMPHIS 4.5 LOOSE CREEK 4.0 ...NORTH CAROLINA... BAKERSVILLE 5 N 20.0 WHITTIER 4 ESE 13.0 CASHIERS 1 NNW 12.5 WAYNESVILLE 4.7 NW 12.1 ROBBINSVILLE 1.5 NNW 11.4 ROCKINGHAM 10.0 BRYSON CITY 7 SE 9.0 CULLOWHEE 8.5 ASHEVILLE 7.0 CHARLOTTE 4.0 ...OHIO... VANDALIA 4.2 WEST ALEXANDRIA 4.0 UNION 3.7 SPENCERVILLE 3.5 FAIRFIELD 3.0 NORWOOD 3.0 TIPP CITY 2.7 BLANCHESTER 2.5 DAYTON COX ARPT 2.4 ...VIRGINIA... SPARTA 12 NW 3.0 ...WISCONSIN... UNION GROVE 1 E 4.0 BROOKFIELD 1 SW 3.5 PEWAUKEE 3.0 TWO RIVERS 2.5 MADISON 5 SW 2.3 ...SELECTED STORM TOTAL FREEZING RAIN ICE AMOUNTS IN INCHES FROM 900 AM EST SUN JAN 09 THROUGH 300 PM EST TUE JAN 11... ...KENTUCKY... THOUSANDSTICKS 0.10 ...NORTH CAROLINA... CHADBOURN 0.30 CHARLOTTE 0.25 CARY 4 E 0.20 CEDAR CREEK 5 SSW 0.10 RALEIGH 4 SW 0.10 ...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SLEET IN INCHES FROM 900 AM EST SUN JAN 09 THROUGH 300 PM EST TUE JAN 11... ...VIRGINIA... WINTERPOCK 4 N 0.50 YORKTOWN 0.50 ...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT HAS ENDED... ...ALABAMA... CENTRAL FLORENCE 11.0 KILLEN 3 ESE 10.5 ANDERSON COOP 9.8 E MADISON 9.1 HUNTSVILLE - JONES FIELD 8.9 WINCHESTER BACKYARD 8.8 ATHENS 5 N 8.2 MOULTON COOP 7.7 BIG COVE 7.0 HARTSELLE 7.0 ...ARKANSAS... ASHDOWN 8.0 MALVERN 8.0 ARKADELPHIA 7.0 DIERKS 7.0 ALEXANDER 6.0 CADDO VALLEY 6.0 GURDON 6.0 HASKELL 6.0 HOPE 6.0 MABELVALE 6.0 LITTLE ROCK 5.6 ...GEORGIA... MINERAL BLUFF 9.0 CHICKAMAUGA 8.0 DALTON 7.5 CLAYTON 8 NW 7.0 DILLARD 7.0 JASPER 4 S 6.5 WATKINSVILLE 6.2 CANTON 1 S 6.0 BOLD SPRINGS 5.5 GAINESVILLE 5.0 ATLANTA 3.0 ...MISSISSIPPI... ASHLAND 10.0 BALDWYN 10.0 LAMBERT 1 W 8.0 SENATOBIA 7.2 RIENZI 7.0 TUPELO 7.0 MARKS 6.5 SALTILLO 6.0 BATESVILLE 10 S 5.0 CLEVELAND 5.0 ...OKLAHOMA... BATTIEST 6.0 IDABEL 6.0 ...SOUTH CAROLINA... DACUSVILLE 3 NNE 9.0 DARLINGTON 2 SSW 9.0 BENNETTSVILLE 8.0 CLYDE 8.0 TAYLORS 3 NNW 7.8 BUFFALO 7.0 GREER 8 SSE 7.0 GREENVILLE 3 N 6.0 HARTSVILLE 5.5 INMAN 5 W 5.0 ...TENNESSEE... LAWRENCEBURG 12 S 11.0 PULASKI 11.0 CORNERSVILLE 3 SE 9.5 HARRISON 9.0 LYNCHBURG 8.0 SHELBYVILLE 9 S 7.3 CHATTANOOGA 7.0 SMITHVILLE 4 WSW 6.2 KNOXVILLE 4.0 NASHVILLE 3.0 ...TEXAS... NEW BOSTON 7.0 CLARKSVILLE 6.0 COOPER 6.0 PRINCETON 3 N 5.1 MINEOLA 5.0 MOUNT PLEASANT 5.0 SULPHUR SPRINGS 5.0 WINNSBORO 5.0 PARIS 4.8 DE KALB 4.5 DODD CITY 4.5 MOUNT VERNON 4.0 ...SELECTED STORM TOTAL FREEZING RAIN IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT HAS ENDED... ...ALABAMA... ASHLAND 0.75 TUSCALOOSA 0.60 SHELBY COUNTY AIRPORT 0.50 ALEXANDER CITY 0.41 SEALE 0.40 BUTLER 0.25 CLAY 0.25 IRONDALE 4 N 0.25 MONTGOMERY 2 E 0.21 ...ARKANSAS... TEXARKANA 0.50 ...GEORGIA... WRIGHTSVILLE 1.50 FORT VALLEY 0.75 ROBERTA 0.75 AGUSTA 0.50 DAWSON 0.50 EVANS 0.50 SYLVANIA 0.50 MACON 0.40 ASHBURN 0.25 ...LOUISIANA... BENTON 10 W 0.25 HAUGHTON 5 WNW 0.25 SHONGALOO 0.25 ...MISSISSIPPI... BASSFIELD 0.25 CHURCH HILL 0.25 LOYD STAR 0.25 ...SOUTH CAROLINA... AIKEN 1.00 JOHNS ISLAND 0.50 MANNING 0.50 SUMMERVILLE 0.50 WEST ASHLEY 0.40 BAMBERG 0.25 TEGA CAY 1 ESE 0.25 CHARLESTON AIRPORT 0.12 ...TEXAS... HENDERSON 0.25 ...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SLEET AMOUNTS IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT HAS ENDED... ...ALABAMA... LOWNDESBORO 4 E 3.00 MAYLENE 2.20 CHILDERSBURG 0.50 HOLT 5 W 0.30 WEDOWEE 0.10 ...ARKANSAS... EL DORADO 0.50 ...GEORGIA... GRIFFIN 1.00 CARROLLTON 0.90 BYRON 0.75 ROBERTA 0.75 CENTERVILLE 0.50 ...MISSISSIPPI... E MOORHEAD 0.80 GREENWOOD 0.80 ACKERMAN 0.50 WINONA 0.50 NEW ALBANY 0.30 THE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND MERGE WITH THE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TONIGHT. THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MAINLY SNOW...SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND BECOMING HEAVY IN COASTAL AREAS FROM NEW JERSEY NORTHWARD. AN AREA OF 8 TO 16 INCH SNOWFALL TOTALS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM THE NYC METRO AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODERATE SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER LATER TODAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MERGES WITH THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW. THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 1000 PM EST. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT. SOLTOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS total precip. Laughable compared to NAM and meso models. why is it laughable? On the western side it basically matches the NAM and its probably more realistic out east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 contrary to beliefs--- staten island is part of NYC LOL oops.. yea. I forgot about that little island... nothing personal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 HPC Heavy Snow Discussion http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/qpfhsd.html what the eff are they talking about with Sleet for NYC??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfreak09 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 np LOL oops.. yea. I forgot about that little island... nothing personal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Interesting here there is a HIGH probability of 12"+....the Heavy Snow discussion says sleet...unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm not sure what HPC is looking at with the sleet issues, or even FZRA I know your set up is way different up there, but just an FYI in case it matters. All day today in DC/Baltimore, there has been drizzle and sleet mixed in with the snow flurries and, reports of the same heading in philly. None of it was expected yesterday. It seems it has something to do with the primary over ohio being stronger.. Doubt it means much for New York once coastal gets cranking, but perhaps that is what HPC is gearing into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 here there is a HIGH probability of 12"+....the Heavy Snow discussion says sleet...unreal I just noticed that as well...god thats a sketchy pair of products coming out of there this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 HPC says freezing drizzle into SE NY/CT/RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I just noticed that as well...god thats a sketchy pair of products coming out of there this afternoon. If they start talking about the possibility of large hail and isolated tornados, I would start getting worried that a disgruntled SPC employee has invaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm not sure what HPC is looking at with the sleet issues, or even FZRA Must be using RUC soundings or some other meso or in-house model. I mean it doesn't seem all the crazy when you just look at the synoptics, but it is odd since the mixing issues seemed to come out of nowhere and even the warmest models are borderline in extreme eastern sections. They appear to be making some assumptions. The snowfall probabilities map is also more extremely unusual. Maybe they are using new tools are an inexperienced forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm not sure what HPC is looking at with the sleet issues, or even FZRA Sorry, not my thread, but there are some reports of sleet and freezing drizzle occurring in the PA thread. Not sure what it means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think the heavier precip. goes further west than the 18Z NAM because it overdoes the lifting in the heavy snow band and as a result overcompensates by having descending air surrounding it, thus limiting precip. totals in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 21z Ruc has the same track as previous runs but the banding shifted slightly eastward. The composite radar looks pretty good for NYC eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It will be a very close call for sure. What is your opinion on the GFS and its ability to potentially simulate such a system? Could it even manage to simulate what some of the nonhydro meso models suggest? Also, what is your opinion on the GFS op decently E wrt its mean? Well, to be clear, I'm not by any stretch saying hug the GFS, I think it's probably too far east as well (though, I have no idea how it's QPF depiction is going to play out relative to reality). The GFS can/should be able to simulate the development of the storm itself (I'm talking the main circulation), because even if it's fairly small spatially, it's still going to be of larger scale than the model can resolve. I guess I'm not sure which aspect of the system development you think the GFS would have difficulty simulating (outside of the obvious convective processes, mesoscale banding, etc.). As far as the op being east of the ensemble mean....I wonder if there isn't too much convective feedback going on in the ensemble (remember, these are being run at lower resolution, and utilizing the pre-July version of the GFS). I guess I would have to look at a few cases and see what is triggering so many members to be deeper/westward, but I suspect it's the old physics/parameterizations wreaking havoc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Sorry, not my thread, but there are some reports of sleet and freezing drizzle occurring in the PA thread. Not sure what it means. Some of these types of storms have started as a mixture of sleet or snow or freezing drizzle and sleet before in NYC before the coastal really gets going but most of the thermal profiles I've seen on the RUC seem to show that in this case its not warm enough for that....HPC though seems to be thinking the sleet mix occurs overnight, that I can't see...its possible on coastal NJ and S and E LI there could be some at the very beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Sorry, not my thread, but there are some reports of sleet and freezing drizzle occurring in the PA thread. Not sure what it means. Drove from virginia to edison nj today up 13. Just arrived. It was freezing rain all the way to dover where it quickly changed to all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Some of these types of storms have started as a mixture of sleet or snow or freezing drizzle and sleet before in NYC before the coastal really gets going but most of the thermal profiles I've seen on the RUC seem to show that in this case its not warm enough for that....HPC though seems to be thinking the sleet mix occurs overnight, that I can't see...its possible on coastal NJ and S and E LI there could be some at the very beginning. January 27/28, 2004, had the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THE SLEET AND SNOW MIX WILL BE MOST INTENSE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY WESTWARD TO THE PENNSYLVANIA LINE AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF DELAWARE...WITH ALL SNOW OVER EASTERN PA/SOUTHEAST NY. AS THE LOW QUICKLY DEEPENS ABOUT 10-15 MBS IN 12 HOURS BETWEEN 00Z/12Z WEDNESDAY...THE NYC METRO AREA AND LONG ISLAND WILL SEE A WINTRY MIX ALTERNATE WITH SNOW...AND SLEET AS DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT DEVELOPS WITH A LOW TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SNOW AND SLEET AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AN ISSUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NY. ??? Only if the H8-9 easterly flow cranks up to the extent that the 20Z RUC predicts. The 21Z RUC has backed off this and shows maximum 1000-850 mb wet bulb temps over 0C only over eastern Long Island. Needless to say we should be watching VAD wind profiles from OKX/DIX radars very closely overnight to see how/if this materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 January 27/28, 2004, had the same thing. I mentioned the radar reminds me of that event, but that secondary low was way weaker and also formed way more north off C or S NJ....the mixing was also well forecast on that event though it persisted longer...however, it only impacted the immediate coast as well...southern LI saw sleet all evening while LGA and NYC were all snow...there was also FZDZ all day leading into the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On a plow or escorted by a plow? They'll have to come in early and catch some winks. I'll be sleeping in the office for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The RUC doesn't really have the good UVVs developing until 1z (8pm). So I suggest for most people's sanity to hold off on looking at the radar until that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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