MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Mt Holly Based on the 18z surface analysis the WRF-nmm and can rgem are verifying the best, the low is tucked into the coast much closer than either the European model (ecmwf) and GFS have. This is based on cargo ship wdd3825 observation. Thank-you opc for the information on that moving buoy. Thus this forecast package will be leaning more toward the hi res models ways than the hemispheric ones. Of course even leaning in that direction does not mean that their precipitation processes (qpf) will come to fruition. http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=PHI&StateCode=PA&SafeCityName=Philadelphia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 exactly- that was as anomalous as Boston receiving 150" or NYC receiving 90"....they are paid up for a decade Where i live i got 93" and places 20 miles north of me got over 100" so it was a once in a lifetime winter, but i would hate to have it suck like this winter for another 9 more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Weather.com is going for 6-10 all the way out in suffolk...wtf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Mt Holly http://www.wundergro...me=Philadelphia What was the WRF-NMM showing for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Weather.com is going for 6-10 all the way out in suffolk...wtf... GFS huggers I imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So, I grabbed this from last night as an archived image. Just goes to show you the shear number of people affected by this system/these systems. 1/3 of the country in some sort of winter weather advisory or watch: PS: 18z GFS initialized waaaaay too far east with the center of low pressure. yea about 150 miles east..what's going on with the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What was the WRF-NMM showing for our area? It's several pages back. Earthlight posted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 gfs is .50+ from the parkway east......eastern LI gets .75+...rest of nj is .25+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Anyone buying into the latest Heavy Snow Discussion where HPC seems to think there be a mix of Snow and Sleet in most of NJ and the NYC Metro Area ? Just looked at ACARS column looks very cold to us with no warming indicated yet looking at the EWR soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Mt Holly http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=PHI&StateCode=PA&SafeCityName=Philadelphia Ooh, I like reading that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Ooh, I like reading that. especially considering the NMM went nuts over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Anyone buying into the latest Heavy Snow Discussion where HPC seems to think there be a mix of Snow and Sleet in most of NJ and the NYC Metro Area ? Just looked at ACARS column looks very cold to us with no warming indicated yet looking at the EWR soundings. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The GFS's initialization of the surface low is laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 gfs is .50+ from the parkway east......eastern LI gets .75+...rest of nj is .25+ GFS is way off on placemnet of the low at 18z..really should throw it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Upton Aviation... AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --MAJOR SNOW STORM OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTENSIFIES AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTHEAST OF MONTAUK WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAJOR SNOW EVENT OVERNIGHT AND IT`S TIMING. EXPECT A RAPID FALL IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS AS SN MOVES IN QUICKLY LATE THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH. WINDS BACK TOWARDS AM AS LOW PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THE MAIN ACCUMULATING SN TO BE ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS GUST...HIGHEST EAST...AS STORM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND PULL AWAY. EXPECT THUNDER SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THE BANDED PCPN AREAS (NOT IN TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF TIME AND LOCATION). SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1 INCH/HOUR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 2-3+ INCHES/HOUR IN HEAVIER BANDS. HEAVIEST BAND LOOKS TO BE OVER CT AND LONG ISLAND - THOUGH THIS MAY SHIFT BACK INTO THE NYC METRO. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1.5 FT PLUS LIKELY IN BANDED REGIONS...8 TO 12 OUTSIDE TO OVER WESTERN SECTIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS tried to track westward--still too far east with the analysis though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS is way off on placemnet of the low at 18z..really should throw it out I have been saying that since 12z lol. Any solution it spits out even if the qpf verifies really should not be considered credible or a coup by any stretch. Mesh the mesoscales and the other globals for this storm and you will probably get a more reasonable/accurate depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS total precip. Laughable compared to NAM and meso models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Weather.com is going for 6-10 all the way out in suffolk...wtf... I refuse to watch them ever since they were talking about TEAM GFS vs. TEAM EURO for the last blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 HPC Heavy Snow Discussion http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfhsd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS total precip. Laughable compared to NAM and meso models. Compared to mesosclaes definitely. It is just wrong right from the get go w/ regards to placement and really no credence can be given to its solution but even this depiction gives NYC the 9 inches Upton is advertising with just 11 to 1 or 12 to 1 ratios as NYC is closer to the .75 qpf anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm not sure what HPC is looking at with the sleet issues, or even FZRA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navvet8992 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link? http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfhsd.html THE SECOND SYSTEM...AND MORE DYNAMIC WINTER WEATHER MAKER...IS EXPECTED TO DELIVER A MIX OF SLEET...SLEET SHOWERS AND SNOWFALL TO THE COASTLINE AND I-95 CORRIDOR FROM THE DE/MD BORDER INTO THE NYC METRO AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN DEEPEN INTO A 980-ISH MB LOW BETWEEN THE ERN END OF LONG ISLAND AND CAPE COD. INTENSE PRESSURE FALLS ALONG 40N LATITUDE...WEST OF 70W SIGNAL A RUSH OF MOIST EAST/EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AND UP GLIDE INTO A COLD/DRY ATMOSPHERE. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THE SLEET AND SNOW MIX WILL BE MOST INTENSE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY WESTWARD TO THE PENNSYLVANIA LINE AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF DELAWARE...WITH ALL SNOW OVER EASTERN PA/SOUTHEAST NY. AS THE LOW QUICKLY DEEPENS ABOUT 10-15 MBS IN 12 HOURS BETWEEN 00Z/12Z WEDNESDAY...THE NYC METRO AREA AND LONG ISLAND WILL SEE A WINTRY MIX ALTERNATE WITH SNOW...AND SLEET AS DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT DEVELOPS WITH A LOW TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SNOW AND SLEET AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AN ISSUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NY...PORTIONS OF CT/NRN RI...WITH SNOW GENERALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE BERKSHIRES...CATSKILLS...EASTERN ADIRONDACKS AND POINTS NORTH...AS A BROAD AXIS OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THIS OFF SHORE SURFACE SYSTEM. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE BROAD CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MAINE...NORTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK...WITH AN ALL SNOW FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. BASED ON THE 18Z HPC QPFS AND THE NAM/ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES...A HIGH RISK OF 12+ INCHES WILL BLANKET A LARGE PORTION OF CONNECTICUT AND MASSACHUSETTS...AND THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE NYC METRO AREA ON DAY 1...WITH A PORTION OF THIS RISK AREA RECEIVING SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS IN ADDITION TO SNOWFALL. DAY 2 SNOWFALLS OF 4-8 INCHES WILL FOLLOW THE STORM TRACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF MAINE AND THE WHITE/GREEN MTNS OF VT/NH/ME WHERE WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE ENHANCING SNOW TOTALS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE DEPARTING CIRCULATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm not sure what HPC is looking at with the sleet issues, or even FZRA Man the offices are covering every possible angle to minimize bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I just put these totals on my website, www.weatherjay.com... Do these look oK? NEW YORK: Rockland: 5-7 inches Westchester: 6-8 inches Orange: 4-6 inches Putnam: 6-8 inches Bronx: 6-8 inches Manhattan: 6-8 inches Queens: 8-10 inches Brooklyn: 8-10 inches Western Nassau: 10-12 inches Central Nassau: 12-16 inches Easten Nassau: 16-20 inches Suffolk: 16-20 inches NEW JERSEY: Eastern Bergen: 6-8 inches Western Bergen: 5-7 inches Hudson: 6-8 inches Eastern Passaic: 6-8 inches Western Passaic: 5-7 inches Essex: 6-8 inches Union: 6-8 inches Eastern Middlesex: 6-8 inches Central Middlesex: 5-7 inches Western Middlesx: 4-6 inches CONNECTICUT: Western Fairfield: 8-10 inches Central Fairfield: 10-12 inches Eastern Fairfield: 12-14 inches Western New Haven: 14-16 inches Eastern New Haven: 16-18 inches Middlesex: 18-20 inches New London: 20-22 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Jesus, if this storm just moves the smallest bit west . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 yes it is and if you were to shift its precip axis west to make up the difference we would all be getting over 1" It's not that simple since these aren't even close to linear processes we're dealing with. Also, throw the GFS/EC precip forecasts out at your own peril, as their verification has been pretty good this month for these lead times (particularly the EC for amounts <1 inch/24 hours). The coastal on the GFS has initialized east (mostly likely because of a scale issue combined with a lack of surface observations assimilated off the coast)...but it's consistent with other fields (mid levels)....and I'm not sure the track up the coast is going to end up that far off [just an opinion, I'm not an operational forecaster]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I don't think I've ever seen the 70/40/10 lines so close to each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I just put these totals on my website, www.weatherjay.com... Do these look oK? NEW YORK: Rockland: 5-7 inches Westchester: 6-8 inches Orange: 4-6 inches Putnam: 6-8 inches Bronx: 6-8 inches Manhattan: 6-8 inches Queens: 8-10 inches Brooklyn: 8-10 inches Western Nassau: 10-12 inches Central Nassau: 12-16 inches Easten Nassau: 16-20 inches Suffolk: 16-20 inches NEW JERSEY: Eastern Bergen: 6-8 inches Western Bergen: 5-7 inches Hudson: 6-8 inches Eastern Passaic: 6-8 inches Western Passaic: 5-7 inches Essex: 6-8 inches Union: 6-8 inches Eastern Middlesex: 6-8 inches Central Middlesex: 5-7 inches Western Middlesx: 4-6 inches CONNECTICUT: Western Fairfield: 8-10 inches Central Fairfield: 10-12 inches Eastern Fairfield: 12-14 inches Western New Haven: 14-16 inches Eastern New Haven: 16-18 inches Middlesex: 18-20 inches New London: 20-22 inches Looks reasonable.. Maybe a little conservative for the northern/Western NYC suburbs where better ratios may help with accumulations in lieu of the lower qpf... I saw somewhere on the Albany AFD, that they were going with 15:1 for the HV, and for further north, e.g. ALB, 20:1. The latest AFD is a good read. http://forecast.weat...0&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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