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NYC Jan 11-12 Miller B Thread Part 2


am19psu

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Craig Allen WCBS 880 AM says Putnam and Westechester Counties will receive the jackpot for this storm. Odd.

This is what I like to hear....Craig Allen is one of the best in the business. thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

I do feel that models are often too far east with the heaviest banding in these situations...the storm has a tucked in track that suggests to me "north and west" for the jackpot, but the models don't seem to be showing that. I do like this track for Westchester though, especially since the system seems to be further west than the GFS.

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We'll have at least 4 people on the mid shift...one dedicated to aviation, the other 3 of us figuring out how to divvy up responsibility. Most likely I'll handle near term mesoscale updates from 8 PM through 4 AM, then someone will be coming in to relieve me so I can dream dreams of 5"/hour thundersnow, but we'll see.

It seems you are ALWAYS on shift during these big storms! :)

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We'll have at least 4 people on the mid shift...one dedicated to aviation, the other 3 of us figuring out how to divvy up responsibility. Most likely I'll handle near term mesoscale updates from 8 PM through 4 AM, then someone will be coming in to relieve me so I can dream dreams of 5"/hour thundersnow, but we'll see.

lmaosmiley.gif

Seriously though, I appreciate all the work you guys do, with over 21 million people to look after, its no easy job. Good luck with the forecast, I hope it verifies...

(with the exception of HPN, I want 24" not 10") laugh.gif

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Craig Allen WCBS 880 AM says Putnam and Westechester Counties will receive the jackpot for this storm. Odd.

"Huge glitch in these snowfall estimates. An intra-data run of the NAM squeezes the snowfall east. In otherwords, 6-12 NYC and west, lower as you head west, but at face value 16-24+ for a band across parts of L.I. and CT. Oh my head hurts already. Is it ever simple"

from craig allen

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Craig Allen WCBS 880 AM says Putnam and Westechester Counties will receive the jackpot for this storm. Odd.

It's conceivable if you stare at hourly QPF on the 12z mm5 for a few hours and fiddle with the snow to liquid ratios a bit. But I don't think that's what he's up to nor do I think he would be so bold. But I do believe that places right along the NY/CT border could give LI and all of SNE a run for their money if banding materializes favorably.

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Long time lurker.

Don't some of the hi res models have those bands running through SW CT through Danbury and into Putnam/Dutchess. Maybe he is looking at this and the higher ratios?

Or it was an old recording and he was extrapolating off 06z NAM. Doesn't matter though. He doesn't have a magic crystal ball.

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True, but having nothing on the ground has to sting. It did look like a good bet they would get at least a couple inches out of this. That doesn't look like a lock anymore. Dusting to 1" now if they are lucky.

I am going to cry :yikes::axe: , good luck to everyone in the tri-state area i hope you get hammered :snowman: .

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This is what I like to hear....Craig Allen is one of the best in the business. thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

I do feel that models are often too far east with the heaviest banding in these situations...the storm has a tucked in track that suggests to me "north and west" for the jackpot, but the models don't seem to be showing that. I do like this track for Westchester though, especially since the system seems to be further west than the GFS.

I am glad you said this. I have been thinking one of the n/s oriented bands that set up will be near/ over us, unlike 12/26 when it was west. I like HPN to verify near 12' with some favorable ratios. A 30 mile slip west and this happens easily.

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We'll have at least 4 people on the mid shift...one dedicated to aviation, the other 3 of us figuring out how to divvy up responsibility. Most likely I'll handle near term mesoscale updates from 8 PM through 4 AM, then someone will be coming in to relieve me so I can dream dreams of 5"/hour thundersnow, but we'll see.

Good luck, Bill. Will look forward to reading your updates.

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Yeah. It increased a little for NYC. 12z Run was 15-17mm.

18z appears to be closer to 20mm.

Upton's 9 inches for NYC sounds about right for now. Maybe NYC can reach a foot by the time it is all said and done but to me that was always the top end for NYC this time around.

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So, I grabbed this from last night as an archived image. Just goes to show you the shear number of people affected by this system/these systems. 1/3 of the country in some sort of winter weather advisory or watch:

PS: 18z GFS initialized waaaaay too far east with the center of low pressure.

However, the 18z made a SIGNIFICANT shift to the northwest with the track in comparison to the 12z. QPF remains slightly wetter but fairly similar.

post-1984-0-31305400-1294781591.png

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True, but having nothing on the ground has to sting. It did look like a good bet they would get at least a couple inches out of this. That doesn't look like a lock anymore. Dusting to 1" now if they are lucky.

maybe you can help- looking at the radar there is a lot of action in S NJ and, especially off the coast....why was this not on any model? What is that???

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