MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 20 Ruc is warm on eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Craig Allen WCBS 880 AM says Putnam and Westechester Counties will receive the jackpot for this storm. Odd. This is what I like to hear....Craig Allen is one of the best in the business. I do feel that models are often too far east with the heaviest banding in these situations...the storm has a tucked in track that suggests to me "north and west" for the jackpot, but the models don't seem to be showing that. I do like this track for Westchester though, especially since the system seems to be further west than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 We'll have at least 4 people on the mid shift...one dedicated to aviation, the other 3 of us figuring out how to divvy up responsibility. Most likely I'll handle near term mesoscale updates from 8 PM through 4 AM, then someone will be coming in to relieve me so I can dream dreams of 5"/hour thundersnow, but we'll see. It seems you are ALWAYS on shift during these big storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 We'll have at least 4 people on the mid shift...one dedicated to aviation, the other 3 of us figuring out how to divvy up responsibility. Most likely I'll handle near term mesoscale updates from 8 PM through 4 AM, then someone will be coming in to relieve me so I can dream dreams of 5"/hour thundersnow, but we'll see. Seriously though, I appreciate all the work you guys do, with over 21 million people to look after, its no easy job. Good luck with the forecast, I hope it verifies... (with the exception of HPN, I want 24" not 10") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The radar looks alot like it did before the 1/27/04 storm started, very showery type appearance to the echoes, that storm though formed more north on the coast basically off NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ...then someone will be coming in to relieve me ... On a plow or escorted by a plow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Craig Allen WCBS 880 AM says Putnam and Westechester Counties will receive the jackpot for this storm. Odd. "Huge glitch in these snowfall estimates. An intra-data run of the NAM squeezes the snowfall east. In otherwords, 6-12 NYC and west, lower as you head west, but at face value 16-24+ for a band across parts of L.I. and CT. Oh my head hurts already. Is it ever simple" from craig allen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Craig Allen WCBS 880 AM says Putnam and Westechester Counties will receive the jackpot for this storm. Odd. It's conceivable if you stare at hourly QPF on the 12z mm5 for a few hours and fiddle with the snow to liquid ratios a bit. But I don't think that's what he's up to nor do I think he would be so bold. But I do believe that places right along the NY/CT border could give LI and all of SNE a run for their money if banding materializes favorably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Warning Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Craig Allen WCBS 880 AM says Putnam and Westechester Counties will receive the jackpot for this storm. Odd. Long time lurker. Don't some of the hi res models have those bands running through SW CT through Danbury and into Putnam/Dutchess. Maybe he is looking at this and the higher ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Long time lurker. Don't some of the hi res models have those bands running through SW CT through Danbury and into Putnam/Dutchess. Maybe he is looking at this and the higher ratios? Or it was an old recording and he was extrapolating off 06z NAM. Doesn't matter though. He doesn't have a magic crystal ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 True, but having nothing on the ground has to sting. It did look like a good bet they would get at least a couple inches out of this. That doesn't look like a lock anymore. Dusting to 1" now if they are lucky. I am going to cry , good luck to everyone in the tri-state area i hope you get hammered . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Actually, he just said the heaviest axis wll be across LI and CT. Yea i just heard him....he said 8-16, 8 in the west, 16 east, and he said up to 24 east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This is what I like to hear....Craig Allen is one of the best in the business. I do feel that models are often too far east with the heaviest banding in these situations...the storm has a tucked in track that suggests to me "north and west" for the jackpot, but the models don't seem to be showing that. I do like this track for Westchester though, especially since the system seems to be further west than the GFS. I am glad you said this. I have been thinking one of the n/s oriented bands that set up will be near/ over us, unlike 12/26 when it was west. I like HPN to verify near 12' with some favorable ratios. A 30 mile slip west and this happens easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 18z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 We'll have at least 4 people on the mid shift...one dedicated to aviation, the other 3 of us figuring out how to divvy up responsibility. Most likely I'll handle near term mesoscale updates from 8 PM through 4 AM, then someone will be coming in to relieve me so I can dream dreams of 5"/hour thundersnow, but we'll see. Good luck, Bill. Will look forward to reading your updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Actually, he just said the heaviest axis wll be across LI and CT. About an hour ago, he said Putnam and Westerchester counties for jackpot amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabiggiu Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow that looks awesome!! 18z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Craig Allen WCBS 880 AM says Putnam and Westechester Counties will receive the jackpot for this storm. Odd. he didnt say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 18z RGEM Looks west of more qpf for NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 By the way, blizzard warnings for Boston. Craig Allen usually comes in at 4:00 P.M. so what you heard before could have been another guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks west of more qpf for NJ. RGEM looks inline with the other models for NYC proper. Probably around .70-.80" (Around 20mm total, I think), as a rough guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So nassau county seems to be the dividing line between a good storm and a historic storm...a foot or so west, up to 2 feet east...same as last storm but in the exact reverse...i guess in the end it all evens out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Didn't most areas down there have like 80 inches of snow last year? Somehow I am not feeling their pain. exactly- that was as anomalous as Boston receiving 150" or NYC receiving 90"....they are paid up for a decade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RGEM looks inline with the other models for NYC proper. Probably around .70-.80" (Around 20mm total, I think), as a rough guess. Yeah. It increased a little for NYC. 12z Run was 15-17mm. 18z appears to be closer to 20mm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RGEM looks inline with the other models for NYC proper. Probably around .70-.80" (Around 20mm total, I think), as a rough guess. i hate those canadian maps. even the color graphics are too small. canada sucks. our (american) models may have their flaws, but at least you can read the damn things easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 By the way, blizzard warnings for Boston. Craig Allen usually comes in at 4:00 P.M. so what you heard before could have been another guy. Ok, I could be wrong that Craig Allen said that. The weather person at 3:30 on 880 AM said jackpot in Westchester and Putnam Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah. It increased a little for NYC. 12z Run was 15-17mm. 18z appears to be closer to 20mm. Upton's 9 inches for NYC sounds about right for now. Maybe NYC can reach a foot by the time it is all said and done but to me that was always the top end for NYC this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks west of more qpf for NJ. Almost identical to 06z. Just a few mbs weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So, I grabbed this from last night as an archived image. Just goes to show you the shear number of people affected by this system/these systems. 1/3 of the country in some sort of winter weather advisory or watch: PS: 18z GFS initialized waaaaay too far east with the center of low pressure. However, the 18z made a SIGNIFICANT shift to the northwest with the track in comparison to the 12z. QPF remains slightly wetter but fairly similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 True, but having nothing on the ground has to sting. It did look like a good bet they would get at least a couple inches out of this. That doesn't look like a lock anymore. Dusting to 1" now if they are lucky. maybe you can help- looking at the radar there is a lot of action in S NJ and, especially off the coast....why was this not on any model? What is that??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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