green tube Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I keep looking back and forth between the NYC and Philly ones, no one ever mentions Somerset County...any ideas? We got screwed on 12/26 with only 8 inches, probably too far west for anything decent again. should I be looking for 4-8? mt. holly increased their forecast totals for your county within the last hour. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/index.php point and click forecast hasnt updated yet for somerset county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I keep looking back and forth between the NYC and Philly ones, no one ever mentions Somerset County...any ideas? We got screwed on 12/26 with only 8 inches, probably too far west for anything decent again. should I be looking for 4-8? Probably around 4-6 in Somerset, 4" to the west and closer to 6" to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's just so weird to root for a storm to come even further inside the benchmark. It's called the benchmark for a reason. Yeah you aint kiddin', usually if all I saw was the forcast low position tucked in like that, I would be hopeing to squeeze out some snow on the front and back end. Funny last 2 years you had to be right on top of the low to get any good snows/precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Sun is peaking through the clouds here..maybe we can finale get the cape building and break the cap. Oh wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 No kidding man, some of me wishes I was back at college in Hamden. But, strong bands tend to form on the western side of the heavy precip so we actually could be in a good area. For 06611 Tonight: Snow, mainly after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 23. East wind 5 to 8 mph becoming north between 14 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. Wednesday: Snow, mainly before 3pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 31. North wind between 16 and 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Poor DC/BA/NOVA guys, they are getting screwed again. They are about to commit suicide in that thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Sun is peaking through the clouds here..maybe we can finale get the cape building and break the cap. Oh wait It feels like a thunderstorm event waiting to happen. It is like waiting for convection to fire along the warm front as the cap slowly erodes as solar insolation does its work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Sun is peaking through the clouds here. The same is true in southern Westchester County. Some breaks in the clouds are visible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hope everyone is well rested and ready for a fun and nail biting night, unless your in LI. NYC will be borderline of the heavy 'mega' band that will set-up and pound LI and SNE...I expect much lower amounts to the west of it say 6-8" and the 12"+ over and east of it. Fingers crossed! But the deepening of this storm is what is keeping me excited and all the surprises in store. Radar looking fun off shore already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Poor DC/BA/NOVA guys, they are getting screwed again. They are about to commit suicide in that thread. Didn't most areas down there have like 80 inches of snow last year? Somehow I am not feeling their pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Poor DC/BA/NOVA guys, they are getting screwed again. They are about to commit suicide in that thread. Being up here in NW NJ isnt much better. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I keep looking back and forth between the NYC and Philly ones, no one ever mentions Somerset County...any ideas? We got screwed on 12/26 with only 8 inches, probably too far west for anything decent again. should I be looking for 4-8? I live in Belle Mead and we got 12-14 with the last storm. Somerset County is just not in the bullseye with this storm. I am surprised that Mt Holly bumped the totals up to 8 inches for Somerville given what the models have been spitting out for the area and how the last storm saw less totals than those to the east. I think a solid 4-6 inch snowstorm with a shot at 8 in the eastern parts if they can get into the heavier bands. Nothing wrong with this and dont know why people complain. do we really need one to two feet on our roads to shut everything down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bullfr2121 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Thanks guys, guess I just had to ask...maybe we'll get lucky and it come a little west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I hope we can spread the love to Westchester since the last storm mostly missed us with its heaviest banding, but I'm concerned that this time the heaviest mesoscale banding will be over LI. I have to question the tight gradient though; with a low tracking from near the NJ coastline to south of Montauk, I'd have to think the entire metro area into central NJ would be under heavy frontogenic forcing as the mid-level lows close off...This seems like a perfect track for huge totals here and yet the models keep cutting amounts to the west of the LI mega-band...not sure what is going on. I've seen this happen many times where you have a large mid-level circulation associated with a primary low over the Lakes or Oh valley and a new mid-level center forms along the eastern flank and rapidly deepens. The radius of circulation of the 2nd low is very small compared to the primary circulation during the transitioning phase. It is only after the primary fills and consolidates that the circulation matures and expands, but often after the system is occluded and stacked. The result is a very sharp western gradient and sometimes a pronounced snow hole between primary and 2nd centers. The situation is compounded by a bombing SLP that is wrapping moisture even more tightly than is typical. I fully believe the currently modeled gradient. I'm just hoping for a surprise or major change. IMO a modeled perfect track that yields moderate QPF is a bad sign for those on the western fringe and a great sign for those concerned with possible mixing out on the east end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RUC looks good with its 20z position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Sun is peaking through the clouds here..maybe we can finale get the cape building and break the cap. Oh wait same here... Im waiting for my dad to call me laughing and be like "what storm?" .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 For 06611 Tonight: Snow, mainly after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 23. East wind 5 to 8 mph becoming north between 14 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. Wednesday: Snow, mainly before 3pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 31. North wind between 16 and 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Also from Upton for 06611 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 245 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 ...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... CTZ005>012-120400- /O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0002.110112T0000Z-110112T2300Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON- 245 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. * HAZARDS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...18 TO 24 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. * WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS LATE TONIGHT...TURNING NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN CT. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. * TIMING...HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If Uptons latest map verifies it would make the 2 storm total (12/26 plus 1/12) totals much more consistent from west to east across the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Didn't most areas down there have like 80 inches of snow last year? Somehow I am not feeling their pain. True, but having nothing on the ground has to sting. It did look like a good bet they would get at least a couple inches out of this. That doesn't look like a lock anymore. Dusting to 1" now if they are lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 same here... Im waiting for my dad to call me laughing and be like "what storm?" .. My dad typically does the same thing...he loves snow though so it will be more like "where is my f***ing snow?". By the way, lol at my iPhone auto correcting finally to finale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Being up here in NW NJ isnt much better. LOL Yeah you guys are right on the edge. Doesn't look like the 6Z NAM will pull a coup here as pressure is not down to 1012 along the NC coast like it had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 People want what other people have. You get told you can get a foot and then you only get 6 inches and it sucks. You expect 1 to 3 and get 6 and you're in heaven. Its just life. I live in Belle Mead and we got 12-14 with the last storm. Somerset County is just not in the bullseye with this storm. I am surprised that Mt Holly bumped the totals up to 8 inches for Somerville given what the models have been spitting out for the area and how the last storm saw less totals than those to the east. I think a solid 4-6 inch snowstorm with a shot at 8 in the eastern parts if they can get into the heavier bands. Nothing wrong with this and dont know why people complain. do we really need one to two feet on our roads to shut everything down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You guys will have your hands full tonight. How do you handle it? Is everyone on call? We'll have at least 4 people on the mid shift...one dedicated to aviation, the other 3 of us figuring out how to divvy up responsibility. Most likely I'll handle near term mesoscale updates from 8 PM through 4 AM, then someone will be coming in to relieve me so I can dream dreams of 5"/hour thundersnow, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Craig Allen WCBS 880 AM says Putnam and Westechester Counties will receive the jackpot for this storm. Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah you guys are right on the edge. Doesn't look like the 6Z NAM will pull a coup here as pressure is not down to 1012 along the NC coast like it had. Looks like the 20z RUC initialized with a 1013 pressure along the NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Craig allen is usually much better than that. Its clear central li is in the sweetspot locally for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Some places approached 90 inches outside of DC, but snow is the worst drug in the world, its never enough, and unless you are willing to travel 365 days a year, you only have a chance to get it 3-4 months a year.. The weather is going to do what its going to do, we have no control over it, although I am convinced weenie prayer can work to some degree Oh, btw, for those of you seeing breaks of sun, I saw those same breaks right before February 2006. Nuff said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Craig Allen WCBS 880 AM says Putnam and Westechester Counties will receive the jackpot for this storm. Odd. Actually, he just said the heaviest axis wll be across LI and CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 We'll have at least 4 people on the mid shift...one dedicated to aviation, the other 3 of us figuring out how to divvy up responsibility. Most likely I'll handle near term mesoscale updates from 8 PM through 4 AM, then someone will be coming in to relieve me so I can dream dreams of 5"/hour thundersnow, but we'll see. Good luck with everything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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