TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 anyone know when SUNY MM5 outputs come out next? noon it will be past 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SREF is much closer to the GFS than the NAM or the ARW. It's not close to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Here are the individuals, it looks like the RSM's are skewing the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 it starts rolling at 11AM or so....takes longer than most models.... http://cheget.msrc.s...tml/alt_mm5.cgi noon it will be past 24 hours thanks guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's not close to the GFS. Looks it to me..... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_p36_036l.gif Closer then the NAM in regards at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The NAM is out to 9 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The NAM is out to 9 hours. Where do you get the NAM with 3hr intervals as opposed to 6hrs on NCEP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You seem to pop up whenever precip totals are either cut or the low center moves away from a favorable position. Well Upton seems to be going with 8-14 inches for us, so I would hope we get a compromise between the NAM and the Noreaster model They did say 15:1 ratios, so even with "just" 0.6 qpf we would get 9 inches of snow. Hence my call of 50% odds of 10" or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Here are the individuals, it looks like the RSM's are skewing the mean. ARW, NMM, and ETA all look pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ARW, NMM, and ETA all look pretty good. yes, and there are going to be fluctuations, especially when the last real sampling for the srefs was 00Z, the rest is data assimilation which is good, but not as good as they will be at 15z after the 12z obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Where do you get the NAM with 3hr intervals as opposed to 6hrs on NCEP? I have a subscription to storm vista weather models.. you get most of the guidance in 3 hours.. at least for the NAM and GFS and it comes out sooner than other places... also get the Euro several hours earlier.. the price is kinda steep though.. it's 350 bucks a year... but I like it.. it's worth it.. the model page refreshes automatically as the guidance comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well Upton seems to be going with 8-14 inches for us, so I would hope we get a compromise between the NAM and the Noreaster model They did say 15:1 ratios, so even with "just" 0.6 qpf we would get 9 inches of snow. Hence my call of 50% odds of 10" or more. I like 8-12 for our area, could be more or less depending on these mesoscale bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I have a subscription to storm vista weather models.. you get most of the guidance in 3 hours.. at least for the NAM and GFS and it comes out sooner than other places... also get the Euro several hours earlier.. the price is kinda steep though.. it's 350 bucks a year... but I like it.. it's worth it.. the model page refreshes automatically as the guidance comes out. Oh got ya. Thanks for the info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Oh got ya. Thanks for the info sure, no problem.. anytime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 nams already backin off pretty hard through 12 It's east of the 6z run so far. No surprise there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nope, if you match up the previous run its the ARW that moved east and skewed it. The RSM's were weak at 3Z also Here are the individuals, it looks like the RSM's are skewing the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the NAM at 18 looks like it may be about to hit us hard... will let you guys know in about 2 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Where do you get the NAM with 3hr intervals as opposed to 6hrs on NCEP? here you go http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/regions12z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 a tad east and a tad weaker so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 nams already backin off pretty hard through 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ok... it is a little east, but it's more that the precip shield has tightened up a bit.. it still has mega output of .75 - 1.00 in 3 hours, but it's confined to mostly long island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the low is pretty much centered at 72/40 lat and long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The NAM looks fabulous and its not siginificantly west east north or south. Can we please try to not turn this thread into mis-information and incorrect information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nam shifted little east but no where near the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 nams already backin off pretty hard through 12 This is a blatent lie. Backing off through 12? The storm isnt in this area until 18 hours, so no way you could have seen this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The NAM looks fabulous and its not siginificantly west east north or south. Can we please try to not turn this thread into mis-information and incorrect information. Id say this is a pretty big shift with the precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The NAM looks fabulous and its not siginificantly west east north or south. Can we please try to not turn this thread into mis-information and incorrect information. Agree please let the professionals do the analysis Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 alrighty.. here's what we got for totals through 24 hours.. NYC and points east still is just over that 1 inch threshold. eastern nassau and all of suffolk county has 1.25 - 1.50.. eastern NJ and lower hudson valley has .75 1.00 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 nam threw hr 12 looks good. trough digging h5 low over OH valley, you can see the coastal xfer on radar reflectivity. precip looks to get in the area by midnite, maybe before. edit: threw hr 24. looks like it ends things a bit quicker tomorrow for NJ. at 500mb, it looks really good so im not sure why it kinda scoots to the NE. but overall, its still a big hit. last i checked 6+ inches is still BIG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Id say this is a pretty big shift with the precip shield Its a shame you are using that 6z run of the NAM to benchmark this storm right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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