Alpha5 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 looks like SW CT is once again on the border of 18"+ and 6" Nailbitting here, the hi res models show over 1.5 and the globals are .7 Mesoscale features will once again be key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Answering my own question, yes..here's the image. Really awesome stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Going to be one of the more fun nowcasting events in recent memory. I personally couldn't care less if I got 2 inches...I am seriously and honestly rooting for LI and CT to get crushed. Might take a road trip to LI so I don't miss the thunder snow. If your out this way let me know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think you're spot on for Long Island, and in fact those are the exact numbers I told my family to expect. But IMO CT is going to get hammered just as badly, and NYC west could see a couple more inches than the above. See you later tonight for the near term mesoscale... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Rain snow line is dover. Just drove through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Really an extremely dynamic and compact storm system. Whenever you get systems like this, somebody who sits under the best ML frontogenesis is going to get absolutely hammered. Does the MM5 still have the impressive h5 height falls and tfold? I like OKX's idea of putting thunder in the forecast..wherever that band sets up there should be tssn without a doubt..and probably some totals closing in on 20". I am all for this system no matter who gets what. Just watching this system evolve and the amount of energy this will be releasing is truly phenomenal. This storm is what this field is all about for me. So if I get 2" or 20" I really don't care anymore. We should all forget about the snow totals and learn a whole lot about thermodynamics with this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Weird pre-storm environment...acting like a powderkeg just waiting to be lit. Morning radar looked like gravity wave city over VA/NC, and now I see that has evolved into multiple bands over Delmarva, with light precip ahead showery in nature. Was out at lunchtime and even noticed that the incoming mid level clouds had lots of embedded small gravity waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Going to be one of the more fun nowcasting events in recent memory. I personally couldn't care less if I got 2 inches...I am seriously and honestly rooting for LI and CT to get crushed. Might take a road trip to LI so I don't miss the thunder snow. Your welcome at my house if you need a place to stay. I'm 4 miles east of the Nass/Suff line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 We should all forget about the snow totals and learn a whole lot about thermodynamics with this one! Yeah..chances of that happening are about the same as Jessica Alba walking into my room with lingerie on right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah..chances of that happening are about the same as Jessica Alba walking into my room with lingerie on right now. oh I agree 100% just don't want people to lose sight of the awesomeness (i love that "word") of this storm... just mind-boggling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Weird pre-storm environment...acting like a powderkeg just waiting to be lit. Morning radar looked like gravity wave city over VA/NC, and now I see that has evolved into multiple bands over Delmarva, with light precip ahead showery in nature. Was out at lunchtime and even noticed that the incoming mid level clouds had lots of embedded small gravity waves. The hi-resolution models are indicative of that banding just exploding northwestward...it's a weird situation because we won't really be able to see it coming. Usually with our typical nor'easters you can see things blossoming before the storm gets here and then the banding sets up. This is going to be one of the "different" storms I have ever experienced. Agree re: the gravity waves...I think we will see their re-emergence tonight..and I can't wait for the frontogenic forcing to rear it's head over Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 But its definitely a pain trying to schedule interviews for our NY clients and advising if our office will be closed or not tomorrow. Now I'm thinking we'll be open since nobody lives in LI and it's looking like the city will be spared the worst. I am all for this system no matter who gets what. Just watching this system evolve and the amount of energy this will be releasing is truly phenomenal. This storm is what this field is all about for me. So if I get 2" or 20" I really don't care anymore. We should all forget about the snow totals and learn a whole lot about thermodynamics with this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Going to be one of the more fun nowcasting events in recent memory. I personally couldn't care less if I got 2 inches...I am seriously and honestly rooting for LI and CT to get crushed. Might take a road trip to LI so I don't miss the thunder snow. Now that you have said that, the snow Gods will bless your humility with a thumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You couldn't care less if you got any snow? Haha that's believable.... Dude..I got 30 inches a few weeks ago while people in various locations didn't get nearly as much. There's some room to spread the love, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The hi-resolution models are indicative of that banding just exploding northwestward...it's a weird situation because we won't really be able to see it coming. Usually with our typical nor'easters you can see things blossoming before the storm gets here and then the banding sets up. This is going to be one of the "different" storms I have ever experienced. Agree re: the gravity waves...I think we will see their re-emergence tonight..and I can't wait for the frontogenic forcing to rear it's head over Long Island. lol I could be getting nada and ill still be excited with the way you describe the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Weird pre-storm environment...acting like a powderkeg just waiting to be lit. Morning radar looked like gravity wave city over VA/NC, and now I see that has evolved into multiple bands over Delmarva, with light precip ahead showery in nature. Was out at lunchtime and even noticed that the incoming mid level clouds had lots of embedded small gravity waves. Wow, that's interesting. BTW, does the GFS "concern" you at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 looks like SW CT is once again on the border of 18"+ and 6" Nailbitting here, the hi res models show over 1.5 and the globals are .7 Mesoscale features will once again be key No kidding man, some of me wishes I was back at college in Hamden. But, strong bands tend to form on the western side of the heavy precip so we actually could be in a good area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Going to be one of the more fun nowcasting events in recent memory. I personally couldn't care less if I got 2 inches...I am seriously and honestly rooting for LI and CT to get crushed. Might take a road trip to LI so I don't miss the thunder snow. Pick me up! I don't want to either...what do you think? I'm going with the Hi-res models as they nailed the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bullfr2121 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I keep looking back and forth between the NYC and Philly ones, no one ever mentions Somerset County...any ideas? We got screwed on 12/26 with only 8 inches, probably too far west for anything decent again. should I be looking for 4-8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I keep looking back and forth between the NYC and Philly ones, no one ever mentions Somerset County...any ideas? We got screwed on 12/26 with only 8 inches, probably too far west for anything decent again. should I be looking for 4-8? Yes. Low end of that, perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Weird pre-storm environment...acting like a powderkeg just waiting to be lit. Morning radar looked like gravity wave city over VA/NC, and now I see that has evolved into multiple bands over Delmarva, with light precip ahead showery in nature. Was out at lunchtime and even noticed that the incoming mid level clouds had lots of embedded small gravity waves. A power keg indeed. I can't wait to watch this system explode as that DT starts doing its work. I have no analogs to this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I keep looking back and forth between the NYC and Philly ones, no one ever mentions Somerset County...any ideas? We got screwed on 12/26 with only 8 inches, probably too far west for anything decent again. should I be looking for 4-8? I think we'll get about 6 inches or so. Once again we miss out on the heavy amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's just so weird to root for a storm to come even further inside the benchmark. It's called the benchmark for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Weird pre-storm environment...acting like a powderkeg just waiting to be lit. Morning radar looked like gravity wave city over VA/NC, and now I see that has evolved into multiple bands over Delmarva, with light precip ahead showery in nature. Was out at lunchtime and even noticed that the incoming mid level clouds had lots of embedded small gravity waves. You guys will have your hands full tonight. How do you handle it? Is everyone on call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I like 8-12 for NYC and 10-14 for our area alex, basically I agree with upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's just so weird to root for a storm to come even further inside the benchmark. It's called the benchmark for a reason. The benchmark wasn't coined to deal with storms the size of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's just so weird to root for a storm to come even further inside the benchmark. It's called the benchmark for a reason. I am not so sure its the surface low placement vs the size and magnitude of the storm. The explosion is progged to happen at the last minute which means a very small and compact storm. The SLP placement really isn't changing anything because the NAM's slp placement didn't change at 18z, just the qpf field, and the rgems placement at 12z matches the other hi resolution models, but its qpf is slightly east of the others (not including 18z NAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Dude..I got 30 inches a few weeks ago while people in various locations didn't get nearly as much. There's some room to spread the love, no? I hope we can spread the love to Westchester since the last storm mostly missed us with its heaviest banding, but I'm concerned that this time the heaviest mesoscale banding will be over LI. I have to question the tight gradient though; with a low tracking from near the NJ coastline to south of Montauk, I'd have to think the entire metro area into central NJ would be under heavy frontogenic forcing as the mid-level lows close off...This seems like a perfect track for huge totals here and yet the models keep cutting amounts to the west of the LI mega-band...not sure what is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I hope we can spread the love to Westchester since the last storm mostly missed us with its heaviest banding, but I'm concerned that this time the heaviest mesoscale banding will be over LI. I have to question the tight gradient though; with a low tracking from near the NJ coastline to south of Montauk, I'd have to think the entire metro area into central NJ would be under heavy frontogenic forcing as the mid-level lows close off...This seems like a perfect track for huge totals here and yet the models keep cutting amounts to the west of the LI mega-band...not sure what is going on. I am thinking this is the answer per TheTrials' post above but maybe a Met can confirm if this is an accurate comment (No offense meant, TheTrials, it seems you have sound reasoning here): I am not so sure its the surface low placement vs the size and magnitude of the storm. The explosion is progged to happen at the last minute which means a very small and compact storm. The SLP placement really isn't changing anything because the NAM's slp placement didn't change at 18z, just the qpf field, and the rgems placement at 12z matches the other hi resolution models, but its qpf is slightly east of the others (not including 18z NAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The decline in forward speed forecast by the 12z MM5 from hrs 21 - 30 south of LI is particularly attention grabbing to me before the system scoots off to the NE. A result of the rapid deepening I assume? This continues precip back to SW of NYC through hour 33 (into the afternoon Wednesday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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