BxEngine Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 something tells me this isnt that type of situation...i dont know anything about the physics here but i can already see the bands stopping at the nassau/suffolk border why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ETA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Precip map Still a nice snowfall. looks like the 1" line right through nassau Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 well.. i had gone with these numbers yesterday and was about to up them last night, but decided not to change it... probably the long island numbers should come in higher, one would think... Rockland: 5-7 inches Westchester: 5-7 inches Orange: 4-6 inches Putnam: 4-6 inches Bronx: 6-8 inches Manhattan: 7-9 inches Queens: 8-10 inches Brooklyn: 8-10 inches Nassau: 10-12 inches Suffolk: 12-14 inches NEW JERSEY: Eastern Bergen: 7-9 inches Western Bergen: 5-7 inches Eastern Passaic: 7-9 inches Western Passaic: 5-7 inches Essex: 7-9 inches Eastern Morris: 5-7 inches Western Morris: 4-6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ETA Now that, is just beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 something tells me this isnt that type of situation...i dont know anything about the physics here but i can already see the bands stopping at the nassau/suffolk border You could be right, but there have been many times where the banding did set-up just west of where the heaviest QPF is progged, including two weeks ago, so I think it's definitely something to consider. Perhaps the Nassau/Suffolk border is the Union County of 12/26, while we're the Middlesex County of it? Even the NAM verbatim, without the "adjusting slightly west rule" is still a very good snow for us. Even Gibbs made a post (that was quoted here a few pages back) that the best banding is often just west of where the highest QPF is progged to be. Maybe it won't happen, maybe it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm guessing you meant Union instead of Morris? I'm pretty much in line with your thinking. Don't think anyone in NJ gets more than 8 or 9" at this point well.. i had gone with these numbers yesterday and was about to up them last night, but decided not to change it... probably the long island numbers should come in higher, one would think... Rockland: 5-7 inches Westchester: 5-7 inches Orange: 4-6 inches Putnam: 4-6 inches Bronx: 6-8 inches Manhattan: 7-9 inches Queens: 8-10 inches Brooklyn: 8-10 inches Nassau: 10-12 inches Suffolk: 12-14 inches NEW JERSEY: Eastern Bergen: 7-9 inches Western Bergen: 5-7 inches Eastern Passaic: 7-9 inches Western Passaic: 5-7 inches Essex: 7-9 inches Eastern Morris: 5-7 inches Western Morris: 4-6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So do we now dismiss the ARW, NMM, WRF entirely and favor the SREF and MM5? Still think this storm is highly unpredictable and there is much we do not know about the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That'd be OK with me .... that's pretty much where I live. The local News channel (Channel 12) which tends to be fairly accurate, if not conservative, is suggesting a pretty good change to rain in eastern Suffolk, but expecting them to get WALLOPPED later on in the storm. Yeah, I saw that too. I don't think it'll change over to rain, since this storm is a bit more compact than most and will have more significant height drops...leads to a lot of dynamic cooling with heavy precip. However, a dry slot on the east end would not surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 We couldn't have really asked for a better location/track of the low. I know that sometimes when their is very heavy banding it tends to rob areas just west and east of that isolated area and this may be one of those cases. In any event, I still think the higher res models have a better take on the QPF and the cutoff will not be as sharp as what the globals are currently indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Mt Holly is increasing the totals: Late Afternoon: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 33. East wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tonight: Snow, mainly after 7pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 28. North wind between 6 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Wednesday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Northwest wind between 13 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Would be something else if GFS has been right all along about my area getting .50 or less of QPF. Although I never completely discounted the solution. I know some people said throw it out, but I think it's never wise to throw out a model, even if it really looks off. Weather is so unpredictable and you can never be sure. Sometimes an outlier model that doesn't look right, ends up being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm guessing you meant Union instead of Morris? I'm pretty much in line with your thinking. Don't think anyone in NJ gets more than 8 or 9" at this point I forgot to include some other counties in NJ.. that was meant to be Morris county... I work there and lots of people at work who live nearby were asking me how much I thought it would snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You could be right, but there have been many times where the banding did set-up just west of where the heaviest QPF is progged, including two weeks ago, so I think it's definitely something to consider. Perhaps the Nassau/Suffolk border is the Union County of 12/26, while we're the Middlesex County of it? Even the NAM verbatim, without the "adjusting slightly west rule" is still a very good snow for us. Even Gibbs made a post (that was quoted here a few pages back) that the best banding is often just west of where the highest QPF is progged to be. Maybe it won't happen, maybe it will. i sure hope Gibbs is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 19 Ruc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i sure hope Gibbs is right Me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 19 Ruc Looks to throw precip more west than the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Would be something else if GFS has been right all along about my area getting .50 or less of QPF. Although I never completely discounted the solution. I know some people said throw it out, but I think it's never wise to throw out a model, even if it really looks off. Weather is so unpredictable and you can never be sure. Sometimes an outlier model that doesn't look right, ends up being right. right or wrong it has been very consistant...those changes they made to it seem to have work so far,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Would be something else if GFS has been right all along about my area getting .50 or less of QPF. Although I never completely discounted the solution. I know some people said throw it out, but I think it's never wise to throw out a model, even if it really looks off. Weather is so unpredictable and you can never be sure. Sometimes an outlier model that doesn't look right, ends up being right. The GFS is already wrong about the placement and strength of the storm. How can any solution it shows be acceptable if it is wrong from initialization? The other globals may be the best route to take. The mesoscale models also have to be given some consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 well.. i had gone with these numbers yesterday and was about to up them last night, but decided not to change it... probably the long island numbers should come in higher, one would think... Rockland: 5-7 inches Westchester: 5-7 inches Orange: 4-6 inches Putnam: 4-6 inches Bronx: 6-8 inches Manhattan: 7-9 inches Queens: 8-10 inches Brooklyn: 8-10 inches Nassau: 10-12 inches Suffolk: 12-14 inches NEW JERSEY: Eastern Bergen: 7-9 inches Western Bergen: 5-7 inches Eastern Passaic: 7-9 inches Western Passaic: 5-7 inches Essex: 7-9 inches Eastern Morris: 5-7 inches Western Morris: 4-6 inches why does everyone forget Staten Island.......SIGH* -Matthew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 right or wrong it has been very consistant...those changes they made to it seem to have work so far,,, I've noticed the model has performed better since the changes too. GFS was the first model to pick up on us getting hit hard by the 12/26 blizzard in the shorter range. I still think we get a nice snowfall here. I've been thinking 6 to 10 for Middlesex county for the last couple days. I wouldn't change that, although it's certainly looking more likely that we'll be towards the lower end of that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 19 Ruc Precip issues in eastern Suffolk? That 0 isotherm has been rearing its face on the RUC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Going to be one of the more fun nowcasting events in recent memory. I personally couldn't care less if I got 2 inches...I am seriously and honestly rooting for LI and CT to get crushed. Might take a road trip to LI so I don't miss the thunder snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I do think it's possible that the highest amounts will be a bit west of what it shows now. I think western and central long island are in for 15-25 inches. 12-18 inches eastern Long island. 5-8 inches for northeastern NJ and 6-10 inches NYC. VERY sharp cutoff between 6 inches and 25. This truly is a long island special, though Much of CT should see 12-20" and Boston the same I think you're spot on for Long Island, and in fact those are the exact numbers I told my family to expect. But IMO CT is going to get hammered just as badly, and NYC west could see a couple more inches than the above. See you later tonight for the near term mesoscale... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah, the 19z RUC has moved the banding about 30 miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Mt Holly is increasing the totals: Late Afternoon: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 33. East wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tonight: Snow, mainly after 7pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 28. North wind between 6 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Wednesday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Northwest wind between 13 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. it's worthless if you dont mention the location for the forecast. that's middlesex county... maybe nearby counties as well. kind of crazy they upped the total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think you're spot on for Long Island, and in fact those are the exact numbers I told my family to expect. But IMO CT is going to get hammered just as badly, and NYC west could see a couple more inches than the above. It is such an amazingly tight gradient here, I can't recall ever being on the actual fringes like this. It's very atypical for this location to be on the extreme fringes when the storm is making such a close pass to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Really an extremely dynamic and compact storm system. Whenever you get systems like this, somebody who sits under the best ML frontogenesis is going to get absolutely hammered. Does the MM5 still have the impressive h5 height falls and tfold? I like OKX's idea of putting thunder in the forecast..wherever that band sets up there should be tssn without a doubt..and probably some totals closing in on 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Perhaps we should call in HurricaneJosh.... the microcane specialist? Seriously though, John, I second your motion to have CT/LI destroyed by the same type of banding we had over us 12/26. It is such an amazingly tight gradient here, I can't recall ever being on the actual fringes like this. It's very atypical for this location to be on the extreme fringes when the storm is making such a close pass to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 it's worthless if you dont mention the location for the forecast. that's middlesex county... maybe nearby counties as well. kind of crazy they upped the total. I thought most posters knew this is the point and click for Edison, New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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