earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NYC kissing the .75 line through 18 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 yep.. NAM hits suffolk county hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm not sure what to expect where I'm at. I guess 5-10 would be about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM definitely coming in with less QPF But it's in pretty good agreement with the other non-hydrostatic models with the deform band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The western fringes of the heavy precipitation (NYC/NE NJ etc) lose about .25-.35 compared to last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM definitely coming in with less QPF lol- whats new....however, its 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So Nassau County should see about the same as last time, Suffolk a crap ton more, NJ less....thats pretty much a good summary i think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I am not sure where they are getting it, but HPC has this down to 1012 off the NC coast for the 18Z analysis. No model is close to that. http://www.hpc.ncep....rgnamsfcwbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I love being just west of where the heaviest QPF is progged to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I love being just west of where the heaviest QPF is progged to be. Cuts EWR to 0.45"-0.5"...comes in line with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I am not sure where they are getting it, but HPC has this down to 1012 off the NC coast for the 18Z analysis. No model is close to that. http://www.hpc.ncep....rgnamsfcwbg.gif WHat was the lowest progged in this area, 1018? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 lol- whats new....however, its 18Z I think we're better off being just west of where the heaviest QPF is progged. The 6z NAM actually worried me slightly, to be honest, but it seems that it over-trended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Guys the gradient is just tighter it's pretty amazing to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM spits out obscene amounts in Suffolk county. To my eyes it seems that it is focusing on one potent QPF max and squashing other potential for banding to the west which the higher resolution models have been depicting. I doubt this storm will be as compact as the NAM depicts it, either that , or its amounts are overblown, per the global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think we're better off being just west of where the heaviest QPF is progged. The 6z NAM actually worried me slightly, to be honest, but it seems that it over-trended. It seems that a lot of times, such as the blizzard, the heaviest totals were west of where the models progged...no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfreak09 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 have not heard much out of JB concerning this storm.. has anyone else heard anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Cuts EWR to 0.45"-0.5"...comes in line with the GFS Yeah, pretty disappointing run in my specific backyard. Not complaining though, I'll take .5 QPF if that's what the snow gods giveth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Cuts EWR to 0.45"-0.5"...comes in line with the GFS Not something anyone should accept hook, line and sinker. The GFS is already wrong about the placement and strength of the storm. Not sure if the NAM depicts something similar, perhaps a met can elaborate. Just because qpf changes to something another model has been showing means little if the storm is incorrectly initalized to begin with by said models. However if the NAM is in agreement with the other models besides the GFS and they are all correct all across the board as far as where this storm is developing and how strong it is that's another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It now seems like Nassau County is pretty much where E NJ was with respect to the 12/26 QPF progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 500mb looks better but the precip is further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It seems that a lot of times, such as the blizzard, the heaviest totals were west of where the models progged...no? Yes. That doesn't mean that it has to be the case this time around, but normally that is the case. 2/12/06 is a classic example of that, as is the 12/26 storm. I like where we sit. I think the bullseye will be in the Nassau/Suffolk border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NYC is barely on the .75" on NAM. In line now with GFS, EURO, GGEM, RGEM, JMA and UKIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think we're better off being just west of where the heaviest QPF is progged. The 6z NAM actually worried me slightly, to be honest, but it seems that it over-trended. something tells me this isnt that type of situation...i dont know anything about the physics here but i can already see the bands stopping at the nassau/suffolk border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 can someone post the precip map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 looks like this is a quick 4-6 hour thump of heavy snow then a rapid shutoff for NYC and W. In and out overnight. The morning commute might not be that bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yes. That doesn't mean that it has to be the case this time around, but normally that is the case. 2/12/06 is a classic example of that, as is the 12/26 storm. I like where we sit. I think the bullseye will be in the Nassau/Suffolk border. that's me!..it was a pain in the boxer day blizzard to see Long Island not in the heavy bands..we would keep going from light to moderate to heavy snow every hour..sometimes it would change to sleet..maybe the Island will get more this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Precip map Still a nice snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I like where we sit. I think the bullseye will be in the Nassau/Suffolk border. That'd be OK with me .... that's pretty much where I live. The local News channel (Channel 12) which tends to be fairly accurate, if not conservative, is suggesting a pretty good change to rain in eastern Suffolk, but expecting them to get WALLOPPED later on in the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 that's me!..it was a pain in the boxer day blizzard to see Long Island not in the heavy bands..we would keep going from light to moderate to heavy snow every hour..sometimes it would change to sleet..maybe the Island will get more this time i concur... would be nice to catch up with the seasonal totals of our brethren out west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The NAM SLP track has changed very little since 06z, but the westward extent of the QPF has decreased significantly. I buy it. Nothing wrong with the track for those of us on the western fringe... just a very compact storm in terms of the heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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