earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 OKX going with 9-11 here..but they put 8 on the map. Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I don't think I can remember seeing anything look like that before. lets move it all 25-30 miles WEST.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 There's going to be wind. Question is how strong they gust consistently for a 3 hour duration. They actually might have to for Suffolk County at some point. I was reading that the wind gusts will be peaking in the 30mph range over NYC, 40mph over Nassau and 50 mph over Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 upton has me 6-12" about 9.5" according to the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SREF means from 15z are out. Old data from the 12z runs, but they did bump the 1" line west about 25-50 miles..now nearing NYC. Very tight gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 14 to 20 has high bust potential when 2 global models, GFS and Euro both have under .75" of QPF in NYC. I know people say discount the GFS in this type of storm and all that but when you have that kind of sharp gradient theres always someone who is going to get screwed I'm just using this particular post as an example, but it appears that most of the non-Met predictions here are disregarding the high resolution models in favor of the Euro/GFS...most seem to be forecasting between 6 and 10" for NYC, what is the reasoning behind this? I'm actually quite bullish going with 14-20" for the boroughs from west to east respectively. I'm not criticizing anyone just curious as to people's reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 One thing's for sure..they are still showing the big QPF development at 18 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 lol upton lowers totals west, but really amped up on totals north and east. Mean while most models WHERE trending a bit wetter for nyc and NENJ Further north and west here near KSWF, they have upped the totals by a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Seems the NWS always goes conservative and then raises totals as the storm is already ongoing. With the Boxing day storm, Oakland went from 16.0" to 27.0" in less than a 12 hr period. I don't see the point in always underforecasting the totals and always playing things conservative. I wish some of the NWS mets that frequent this site would comment on here as to how they arrived with these forecast totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 New upton discussion. They even mention lightning strikes as a possibility http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Remember, blizzard does not mean obscene amounts of snowfall. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NMM Clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 There's going to be wind. Question is how strong they gust consistently for a 3 hour duration. Well that and the visibility and can they verify it. Do you agree with their decision to get rid of heavy snow warnings? I think there is a difference in inconveniences between 6 inches of snow and a foot of snow.... let alone two feet lol. The latter can be life threatening. There was a bit of a watch/warning/advisory consolidation several years ago, so the heavy snow warning ultimately didn't last very long, but it was by no means the only one they got rid of. From the NWS perspective it's probably confusing to the public as a lot of them do sound similar. I'm not sure heavy snow warning conveyed any more useful information to the public than a winter storm warning since you still need to read the forecast or warning to see what kind of snow was coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hmmmm.... wow go nmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I don't think I can remember seeing anything look like that before. they've had higher forecasted totals before but usually once the storm develops and they see where the banding takes place.. they will probably update this map 4 or 5 more times from now through midday tomorrow.. but this is the highest ive evern seen upton forecast before the storm starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 New upton discussion. They even mention lightning strikes as a possibility http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off 18-24 for CT. This does scare me-we had a similar forecast Last Feb 10th and ended up with 5. This is a different animal, but that is still in the back of my head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NMM ftw LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I don't think I can remember seeing anything look like that before. It makes perfect sense because my house is right under that 19.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Upton WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS TO 18-24" ACROSS CT AND MAINLY SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND. NASSAU COUNTY LOOKS TO STAY IN A 12-18" INCH RANGE...BUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY TIGHT... AND EVEN A 30 MILE SHIFT WEST IN THE BANDS COULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW NOSING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF NYC. wowzers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Updated WSW for NE NJ and the 5 boroughs URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 245 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 ...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ072>075-176-178-120400- /O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0002.110112T0000Z-110112T2300Z/ WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN- EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION- EASTERN UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN QUEENS- 245 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. * HAZARDS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. * WINDS...GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. * TIMING...HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 srefs way east. barely .5 into nj shore and up into NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM appears to be southeast of it's 12z run through 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 They actually might have to for Suffolk County at some point. I was reading that the wind gusts will be peaking in the 30mph range over NYC, 40mph over Nassau and 50 mph over Suffolk. I forecast for a hockey forum-- and I mentioned the possibility. It sure seems like it...especially for parts of Suffolk county and points east. A lot depends on how close the LP gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM hour 12 sim radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Upton lowers NYC snow totals which seems like the right move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ugh keep lowering totals here went from 10-15", 8-14", now 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM definitely coming in with less QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Upton WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS TO 18-24" ACROSS CT AND MAINLY SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND. NASSAU COUNTY LOOKS TO STAY IN A 12-18" INCH RANGE...BUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY TIGHT... AND EVEN A 30 MILE SHIFT WEST IN THE BANDS COULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW NOSING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM precip thru hour 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I don't see much wrong with the NAM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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