CAT5ANDREW Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 <br />over / under 10 for NYC central park, what do u guys think?<br /><br /><br /><br />I am going with 6 for NYC,8 for Queens and 18+ for LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I take it that it's predicting 35 dBz reflections at the Jersey shore. That's like 2" an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This really seems like a more compactified version of the Millenium Storm. If you remember, with that one, NJ was the jackpot and the low tracked over Central Suffolk County. The two storms I'm thinking of with this are that one and Feb 10, 2010..... both intensified rapidly and had sharp gradients. I remember you mentioned another one yesterday-- but I forget which storm that was. what about March 2001.....would that be similar too?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 over / under 10 for NYC central park, what do u guys think? For those who dont know, NYC central park snow has been trading all day from 9 - 10 Yep-- I told you this morning, 50% odds NYC sees 10 inches... Im sticking with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yep-- I told you this morning, 50% odds NYC sees 10 inches... Im sticking with that. 50% is a coin flip, i need better confidence to put real money on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 what about March 2001.....would that be similar too?? Meh, if it busts and only hits new england. Although, come to think of it, that was another storm where Long Island got around a foot of snow and there was a sharp cut off to the west, but that was only because they got the backlash effect. We actually had some midlevel warm air come in when the storm started and I remember that was a rain/ice mix and only changed over to snow for the backlash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 50% is a coin flip, i need better confidence to put real money on it. I'll say 9 inches is over 50% then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Upton's new map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'll say 9 inches is over 50% then. humm im not so sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Upton's new map holy smokes@some of those totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 humm im not so sure Upton thinks 9 inches is 50% as per the new map. Looks like it has 20 inches painted right over Ed's house. William's too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Seems too high to me for CT unless the storm bombs earlier than expected- I think over 18" amounts will be isolated. Upton's new map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It looks as if Upton lowered everyone's totals a bit to the west of Nassau county despite the recent 12 hours of more bullish model runs for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Upton's new map holy fook...!! gotta clear the yard now of old snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 wow-19 inches at BDR--blizzard warnings at 4pm anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 oh yeah oh yeah, look at the forecast!! Tonight: Snow, mainly after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 27. Blustery, with a east wind 7 to 10 mph becoming north between 17 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 To me, the new map indicates that they have chosen to take the strength that the high res models are indicating and blend it with the location of the low that the ec is showing. I think they went very conservative for areas in NJ and the city which could easily see over 1" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 lol upton lowers totals west, but really amped up on totals north and east. Mean while most models WHERE trending a bit wetter for nyc and NENJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 wow-19 inches at BDR--blizzard warnings at 4pm anyone? Remember, blizzard does not mean obscene amounts of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 wow-19 inches at BDR--blizzard warnings at 4pm anyone? No, why would they? We could get 50 inches of snow but if there's no wind, it's just a regular old winter storm warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 No, why would they? We could get 50 inches of snow but if there's no wind, it's just a regular old winter storm warning. Agree, but I think we get some decent winds as the some bombs, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 lol upton lowers totals west, but really amped up on totals north and east. Mean while most models WHERE trending a bit wetter for nyc and NENJ Hi-res models are wetter. ALL globals are .50"-.75" range for NYC. They took a blend it appears and went 9" range for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 No, why would they? We could get 50 inches of snow but if there's no wind, it's just a regular old winter storm warning. There's going to be wind. Question is how strong they gust consistently for a 3 hour duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 As someone posted in the Philly thread, HPC lowered the QPF to the .5-.75 for NYC and just west. West of I-95 is into the .25-5 Hi-res models are wetter. ALL globals are .50"-.75" range for NYC. They took a blend it appears and went 9" range for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 No, why would they? We could get 50 inches of snow but if there's no wind, it's just a regular old winter storm warning. Do you agree with their decision to get rid of heavy snow warnings? I think there is a difference in inconveniences between 6 inches of snow and a foot of snow.... let alone two feet lol. The latter can be life threatening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Upton's new map I don't think I can remember seeing anything look like that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> I am going with 6 for NYC,8 for Queens and 18+ for LI I'm just using this particular post as an example, but it appears that most of the non-Met predictions here are disregarding the high resolution models in favor of the Euro/GFS...most seem to be forecasting between 6 and 10" for NYC, what is the reasoning behind this? I'm actually quite bullish going with 14-20" for the boroughs from west to east respectively. I'm not criticizing anyone just curious as to people's reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hi-res models are wetter. ALL globals are .50"-.75" range for NYC. They took a blend it appears and went 9" range for NYC. wow, it looks like on that map that the south fork is the only one that will have mixing issues.. meanwhile, News 12 thinking 8-15" with mixing possibly east of R 111 (i'm east of that )... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SNowing in Skillman NJ NOW well, flurries anyway, but ZERO radar reflectivity at the moment. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hi-res models are wetter. ALL globals are .50"-.75" range for NYC. They took a blend it appears and went 9" range for NYC. It makes sense even if we dont like it (I dont like it either.... Im on your side of the fence lol.) Anyway, Ive heard the NAM and some of the other hi res models are guilty of "smoothing"-- meaning they paint a broader area of high qpf than what occurs during storms which have banding. They probably think the globals will do better in areas that see less banding and the hi res models will do better in areas which get on the really good stuff. Makes sense, sadly enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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