Zelocita Weather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The problem with NYC getting big snow totals is the track of the H5 low, ideally we would want the H5 to pass south of us, like the 6z NAM was showing, however the latest runs are showing the H5 low basically tracking on top of us, which won't allow heavy precipitation to really "hook" and and wrap around to give NYC 12+. SNE looks to be the sweet-spot with this storm. 17z RUC has the western edge of the 'HEAVY BANDING' (1"+/hr) reaching about 5-10 miles W of the parkway in N NJ. It has this consistent for about 5-7 hours where it does not move at all. Showing an EXTREME cutoff somehwere in N NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SIM radar SPC WRF http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 17z RUC has the western edge of the 'HEAVY BANDING' (1"+/hr) reaching about 5-10 miles W of the parkway in N NJ. It has this consistent for about 5-7 hours where it does not move at all. Showing an EXTREME cutoff somehwere in N NJ. 18z RUC will be interesting since it will have new observations with the 18z data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 any of the echoes actually reaching the ground in nj? I don't want to radar hallucinate, but looks like they will be reaching the metro area by 4pm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 we have yet to have a bust this year and we all know that there have been quite a few busts in the past 5 years. I wish someone would keep a thread with all the busted storms with info on what was suppose to happen and what did happen. Not saying that we will bust but there is precidence for things not going to plan especially with Miller Bs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 any of the echoes actually reaching the ground in nj? I don't want to radar hallucinate, but looks like they will be reaching the metro area by 4pm.... Radar shows something over me now and I have milky sun instead. I dont think we see any real stuff in Central Jersey until at least 6 which would mean later for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Here is the linkt to the website http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/12/ Looks like the deform band sets up along the west Ct. and east NY border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 looks like some noticeable differences at 500mb between 18z ruc init and 17z ruc 1. 540 ht is farther south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 WRF-NMM shows a similar dual banding structure to the Dec 26 event, with the western band similarly oriented north-south. However, the western band is about 50 miles further east than Dec 26, from western LI to the Berkshires. The eastern band between PVD and BOS is very similar to Dec 26. Eh, I guess I'll take it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Hammer Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Would be surprised if someone doesn't get a blizzard warning in the next NWS update. With a closer track and the storm not any weaker than it's been looking, someone will definitely experience near-blizzard to blizzard conditions on Long Island. At least my opinion. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 any of the echoes actually reaching the ground in nj? I don't want to radar hallucinate, but looks like they will be reaching the metro area by 4pm.... All virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Would be surprised if someone doesn't get a blizzard warning in the next NWS update. With a closer track and the storm not any weaker than it's been looking, someone will definitely experience near-blizzard to blizzard conditions on Long Island. At least my opinion. Thoughts? Not likely. There needs to be sustained 3 hour period of 1/4 visibility and that doesn't seem to be in th cards anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SPC WRF is insane...a bit west of the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Heres to hoping the SPC WRF scores on this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 nyc .75 western li .75-1 central 1 eastern 1.25 sw ct .75-1 but lean more towards like .8-.9 Thanks Tombo-- what a weird gradient lol. You could have west of NYC with 6 inches, NYC with 10 and eastern LI with 18! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That gradient scares me, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Heres to hoping the SPC WRF scores on this one! Yet another meso-model that jackpots me. If I recall with the boxing day blizzard, the meso's were very accurate with both the band over NJ and the drylot over Eastern NE, while the globals weren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Thanks Tombo-- what a weird gradient lol. You could have west of NYC with 6 inches, NYC with 10 and eastern LI with 18! It happens with these dynamic, banded setups. I actually like where we sit for this one. I'd rather be on the western end of the high QPF than even right in the middle of it. That's where the best deformation banding sets up, and indeed we get absolutely annihilated on some of the hi-res models for several hours or more early tomorrow AM. Someone could see 20" if the kind of banding being displayed actually happens, and not far from us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That gradient scares me, lol. Consider it a challenging test..... global models vs hi res "local" models-- let's see who wins the atmospheric tug of war Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It happens with these dynamic, banded setups. I actually like where we sit for this one. I'd rather be on the western end of the high QPF than even right in the middle of it. That's where the best deformation banding sets up, and indeed we get absolutely annihilated on some of the hi-res models for several hours or more early tomorrow AM. Someone could see 20" if the kind of banding being displayed actually happens, and not far from us. Same lol. I actually think we should name this the JM Birthday Storm lol.... and it would be perfect if you jackpotted because it would have to be one hell of a gradient for you to jackpot and me not to lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 18z Ruc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SPC WRF is insane...a bit west of the NAM Every time you post a model run it looks awesome lol. When you leave they all suck for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 18z Ruc About 10-20 miles east with the band... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 19z SLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Awesome band over NYC, eastern Jersey and LI at 2am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It happens with these dynamic, banded setups. I actually like where we sit for this one. I'd rather be on the western end of the high QPF than even right in the middle of it. That's where the best deformation banding sets up, and indeed we get absolutely annihilated on some of the hi-res models for several hours or more early tomorrow AM. Someone could see 20" if the kind of banding being displayed actually happens, and not far from us. This really seems like a more compactified version of the Millenium Storm. If you remember, with that one, NJ was the jackpot and the low tracked over Central Suffolk County. The two storms I'm thinking of with this are that one and Feb 10, 2010..... both intensified rapidly and had sharp gradients. I remember you mentioned another one yesterday-- but I forget which storm that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 over / under 10 for NYC central park, what do u guys think? For those who dont know, NYC central park snow has been trading all day from 9 - 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Lol at the RUC...just straight up hammering everybody through 3am this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 151 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JAN 12/0000 UTC THRU JAN 13/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR ...NERN U.S.... MDLS CONT TO SHOW THE OH VLY/GRT LKS MID/UPR VORTEX HANGING ON A LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER RUNS...WITH SOME GUID SHOWG THE CSTL LOW DVLPMENT A LITTLE SLOWER/FARTHER N. HIER RESOLUTION GUID...INCLUDING EXPERIMENTAL NAM...CONTS TO FAVOR A LOW SLGTLY CLOSER TO THE CST. OPERATION GLOBAL GUID IS SHOWG THE LOW LIFTG TWD THE NE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE HIER RESOLUTION GUID. THE LONGER THE MORE INLAND MIDLVL LOW HANGS ON...THE BETTER CHC FOR MORE DRY SLOT DVLPMENT INTO THE MID ATLC...WITH THE ASSOCD BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD LIFTG NEWD FASTER. 12Z EC JUST ARRIVED AND HAS LIFTED THE AREA OF PCPN NEWD. MSTR IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS SYS...BUT THERE IS A PLUME OF DEEPER ATLC/TRPCL MSTR LIFTG NWD ALNG THE SERN U.S. CST THAT SHLD EVENTUALLY GET DRAWN INTO THE SYS LATER TNGT/WED. MDLS SHOW STG UPR JET DYNAMICS DVLPG LATER THIS EVE OVR THE MID ATLC THAT QUICKLY LIFTS NEWD ON WED. IMPRVS UPR LVL DVRG/DIFL/HGT FALLS AND ASSOCD DEEP LYRD ASCENT THAT WL RESULT IN RAPID PCPN DVLPMENT LATER THIS EVE ALNG THE MID ATLC CST THAT WL EXPAND INTO SRN NEW ENG AND ALNG THE NEW ENG CST ON WED. VRY STG WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ALRDY UNDERWAY OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND WL CONT TO INTENSIFY INTO TNGT AS THE SFC/8H LOW BEGINS TO DVLP WITH A SRLY LLJ PROVIDG STGR MSTR FLUX/WAA INTO THE REGION. MANUAL QPF LEANED ON THE GLOBAL GUID...BUT DID PULL SOME HVIER PCPN WWD ASSOCD WITH THE STGR E/NE FLOW THAT WL SUPPORT UPSLOPE ALNG THE N/S ELEVS. MOST GUID...INCLUDING ALL THE SREF/GEFS/EC ENSEMBLES...ARE SHOWG SUPPORT FOR A BROAD REGION OF ONE INCH LIQ ACRS SERN NEW ENG WITH LGTR AMTS WWD INTO THE OH VLY AND GRT LKS. DVLPG NRLY FLOW OVR THE GRT LKS WL SUPPORT LK EFFECT SNOWS TO THE S OF THE GRT LKS...WITH SOME UPSLOPE ALNG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APLCHNS CONTRIBUTING TO LCLLY HVIER ACCUMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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