Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I have a feeling that the SUNY MM5 is going to be the way to go, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 it looks like around 100 or so miles ese of morehead city Yeah, to me it looked like the Euro was too far east at 6 hours compared to what we're seeing now. Not as off as the GFS, but still kind of off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I have a feeling that the SUNY MM5 is going to be the way to go, here. Sign me up. I'm in the same boat. Don't go against seasonal trends. As many have said before, it's not time to go conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I have a feeling that the SUNY MM5 is going to be the way to go, here. It has been in the past, no reason to doubt it now. Its just killer under 30 hours and lines up well with the other Hi Res' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 don't worry guys the 18z RUC should be running soon, then the 18z models might shift west again. Congrats, I wish I was getting 12-24 instead of 3 inches last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The Philly thread is going into suicide mode. They were never modeled to hit the big time with this one and are attacking anyone that mentions how well the NYC area is going to fare when some of the Mt. Holly zones are located that far NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Most of the globals including the GGEM/GFS totally dun goofed in the short-term with the boxing day blizzard. Even the Euro did not correctly predict that the best dynamics/qpf would be in NJ. The Hi-Res models did very well, so I would give them extra weight in this situation, NJ Total Forecast: TTN: 5" SMQ: 6" MMU: 7.5" EWR: 9" SANDY HK: 10" TEB: 11" JRSY CITY: 11" NYC: 11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS and Euro basically same QPF for NYC, around .50 - .60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It has been in the past, no reason to doubt it now. Its just killer under 30 hours and lines up well with the other Hi Res' Yeah, the fact that the hi-res models are shifting west seems to be an indicator that they are seeing more dynamics as the storm gets closer. It looks like the Global Models are too far east compared to what we're seeing now. I think in this case, it's actually better to see the hi-res models shift west than the globals. Had the hi-res models shifted east, that could be an indicator that the dynamics--which they are supposed to pick up on--are less than previously indicated. Since they are west, I'm content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS and Euro basically same QPF for NYC, around .50 - .60 Euro is .75 on the dot for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The Philly thread is going into suicide mode. They were never modeled to hit the big time with this one and are attacking anyone that mentions how well the NYC area is going to fare when some of the Mt. Holly zones are located that far NE. again, its the reason im over here, it gets on my nerves, they will still see snow, just be happy with that. We were never progged to get anying more than 8 inches in the mt holly cwa, except up by middlesex co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z Euro when it started http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=800x600&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=ln&ft=h00&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=ecmwf≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=&cu=latest Current radar depiction http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.php Euro is too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Why are they so bitter.They will never experience a 2/6/10 like we did up here?My suggestion is to just watch the storm unfold and radar nowcast.Enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah, the fact that the hi-res models are shifting west seems to be an indicator that they are seeing more dynamics as the storm gets closer. It looks like the Global Models are too far east compared to what we're seeing now. I think in this case, it's actually better to see the hi-res models shift west than the globals. Had the hi-res models shifted east, that could be an indicator that the dynamics--which they are supposed to pick up on--are less than previously indicated. Since they are west, I'm content. Go with the hot hand. Hi Res ARW and NMM did fantastic in the last storm, as did the MM5. Euro was too east with the best banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Im not trying to be a downer here but dont the MM5, ARW and NMM all get their data from 12z NAM sheme? I believe they do. Not saying they are wrong because of that but it could be skewing all of them. Curious to see if 18z NAM will hold its big totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z Euro when it started http://vortex.plymou...n&ft=&cu=latest Current radar depiction http://weather.unisy...fc_map_loop.php Euro is too far east. That isn't just a little bit either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z Euro when it started http://vortex.plymou...n&ft=&cu=latest Current radar depiction http://weather.unisy...fc_map_loop.php Euro is too far east. 12z euro start is at 12z. That is 7am this morning. You need 12z euro hour 6 to compare to current sattelite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Im not trying to be a downer here but dont the MM5, ARW and NMM all get their data from 12z NAM sheme? I believe they do. Not saying they are wrong because of that but it could be skewing all of them. Curious to see if 18z NAM will hold its big totals. I swore the mm5 was it's own model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the RUC is promising, wish I had total qpf maps, but its showing 1-2" hour rates for NYC for 5-6 hrs, maybe longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 posted in SNE thread but still holds some keys to how areas just west do i think a blend of 15z sref+euro+meso modeling will be answer key this afternoon. still supports widespread 10-20 with locally 24 possible. All we are really figuring out is exactly when and where the mid level circ closes off over the coastal in order to create the anomalous U wind jet and setup deformation band. Sooner it does it, more western track, and more moisture on anomalous -U wind throws heavier precip farther west..later...its a bit east. All just details at this point for exactly where the centroid of max snow is. I still always shade northwest of 700mb low track as my best area, which is typically also northwest of qpf max in model world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 In all fairness, its not just the Philly area that commits suicide when things don't go their way. We all do in one way or another. The real cryers should be the DC area which have had miss after miss so far this year. Last year was a two or three time a century winter for them and this year is just typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I swore the mm5 was it's own model It is but I believe it initializes off 12z NAM data. I know ARW and NMM definitely do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 17 Ruc is closer to the Nam than the GFS and Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It is but I believe it initializes off 12z NAM data. I know ARW and NMM definitely do. Here you go http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/html/info.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS and Euro basically same QPF for NYC, around .50 - .60 to me this is a bad sign...i know i have heard from mets that the mesoscale models are the way to go but we know that isnt true...no one ever quotes the ARW/NMM or even the MM5...nothing wrong with a 5-8" snowfall....east of Nassau cty can see 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z Euro when it started http://vortex.plymou...n&ft=&cu=latest Current radar depiction http://weather.unisy...fc_map_loop.php Euro is too far east. that is 12Z.....6 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 to me this is a bad sign...i know i have heard from mets that the mesoscale models are the way to go but we know that isnt true...no one ever quotes the ARW/NMM or even the MM5...nothing wrong with a 5-8" snowfall....east of Nassau cty can see 12" Nothing is set in stone just yet. Euro does not show .50-.75 for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SPC WRF 21 HOURS Here is the linkt to the website http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The problem with NYC getting big snow totals is the track of the H5 low, ideally we would want the H5 to pass south of us, like the 6z NAM was showing, however the latest runs are showing the H5 low basically tracking on top of us, which won't allow heavy precipitation to really "hook" and and wrap around to give NYC 12+. SNE looks to be the sweet-spot with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nothing is set in stone just yet. Euro does not show .50-.75 for the area. I have the maps ant....it does not look close to .75 for the park.....prob between .55-60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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