MikeS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Based on radar and obs, I would say some people may be surprised at 6pm, yes. Mike, looks like the best banding this time will be painfully east of us, according to the NAM, MM5, etc.... I hope those people get to experience what we did 12/26. Well, that's going to make for an interesting commute home then. Yeah, I agree. It's about 20-25 miles due east of us but like you said, we were in the jackpot on 12/26 so it's only appropriate we share the wealth (occasionally).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I know I am in ABE but baro I have aquestion,.... with the storm already stronger than the models even from 6z, how much further west do you think the SLP can come, I know that the precip shield may be more wound, but I am curious what you think in your expert opinion, of course I won't hold you to it! You are a valuable asset thank you for your contributions. Yeah we were discussing this last night. I don't really think it can come much farther W the 06Z NAM since it still needs to draw off the Gulf Stream for such intensification. 6Z NAM would be as ridiculous as it came. If it were to come in more intense, I honestly don't know what it would do. With such a tight and compact system, it could dry slot earlier on parts of eastern LI, but I don't think that will happen. At its most intense, I think the 6Z NAM is as good as it would get with the time window we have and the track of the upper S/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The new RUC brings mixing issues to eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If we do accept 12Z NAM winds as halfway accurate, Suffolk should be in a blizzard warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Any word on the 12z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If we do accept 12Z NAM winds as halfway accurate, Suffolk should be in a blizzard warning. wouldnt be surprised to see some blizzard warnings on Upton's next package... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Western suffolk eastern nassua is gonna see one hell of a deform band with 2-3"/hr. Rates and thundersnow looks like, may even be as intense as the 12/26 deform over ne nj and nyc. Any thought about my prediction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like euro cuts our totals now also. .75"-1" for NYC now...Down from 1.25" last night. Global models are reducing while Hi-res are increasing. Globals for NYC: GFS: .50"-.75" GGEM: .50"-.75" Regional RGEM: .50"-.75" SREFS: .50"-.75" Hi-res Models 1.25"-1.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Any word on the 12z Euro? Tombo is reading it off in the PHL thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Any word on the 12z Euro? Per Tombo, low is weaker and a little drier (at least in the PHL area) but low is in same spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like euro cuts our totals now also. .75"-1" for NYC now...Down from 1.25" last night. Global models are reducing while Hi-res are increasing. Globals for NYC: GFS: .50"-.75" GGEM: .50"-.75" Regional RGEM: .50"-.75" SREFS: .50"-.75" Hi-res Models 1.25"-1.50" Don't look at the GFS. Doesn't make sense. Mesoscale models are in line with the current depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like euro cuts our totals now also. .75"-1" for NYC now...Down from 1.25" last night. Global models are reducing while Hi-res are increasing. Globals for NYC: GFS: .50"-.75" GGEM: .50"-.75" Regional RGEM: .50"-.75" SREFS: .50"-.75" Hi-res Models 1.25"-1.50" maybe tightening the gradient? How is LI and SW CT on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The Euro is kind of dry. NYC gets .75" of QPF, which gradually increases as you head east. The 1" line is in Eastern Suffolk, and Montauk gets 1.25" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 WTF?! Only 3" of snow for Huntington?? MAKER OF ALL CREATURES LARGE AND SMALL!!! That bright red dot over MBY would make my decade. Getting goose bumps thinking about the potential size of the jackpot. It could move, of course, and QPF may be exagerrated, but this is gonna be a whopper for central LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 maybe tightening the gradient? How is LI and SW CT on the euro? nyc .75 western li .75-1 central 1 eastern 1.25 sw ct .75-1 but lean more towards like .8-.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 nyc .75 western li .75-1 central 1 eastern 1.25 sw ct .75-1 but lean more towards like .8-.9 Tombo, where does the 0.5" line bisect? Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 tombo, is the gradient much tighter as you head west? what does ewr look like? nyc .75 western li .75-1 central 1 eastern 1.25 sw ct .75-1 but lean more towards like .8-.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Honestly imo I am not too worried what the ECM/GFS do. I would stick more with obs and non-hydrostatic models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Man, the euro is waffling all over the place. At least gfs has been consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Also, the Philly thread is about to head into anarchy, beware if you go over lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Honestly imo I am not too worried what the ECM/GFS do. I would stick more with obs and non-hydrostatic models. Agree-now cast time-the models have done the best that they are going to do (GFS EURO AND NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Man, the euro is waffling all over the place. At least gfs has been consistent. A for effort from the GFS, F for results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Euro initialized further east than the actual Low placement. Compare this To actual reality. Looks a good 75-100 miles east of the Low Pressure. And algreek- no it is not. It is the 12Z Euro that just came in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 FWIW, lowest buoy corrected pressure is just off the NC coast at sub 1015 hpa now for 18Z. Also, not sure how accurate some of these buoys are--if anyone has input let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Tombo, where does the 0.5" line bisect? Thx the .5 line goes from central/northern ocean to bout new brunswick to sussex co tombo, is the gradient much tighter as you head west? what does ewr look like? its not ridiculous. nyc is .75 while tip of LI is 1.25 Also, the Philly thread is about to head into anarchy, beware if you go over lol. hence, why im here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the .5 line goes from central/northern ocean to bout new brunswick to sussex co its not ridiculous. nyc is .75 while tip of LI is 1.25 hence, why im here Hey Tombo, where is the 18Z ECM surface low and at what pressure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Euro initialized further east than the actual Low placement. Compare this To actual reality. Looks a good 75-100 miles east of the Low Pressure. Isn't that euro frame from 7am this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Also, the Philly thread is about to head into anarchy, beware if you go over lol. What, the 3 20+" storms of last year wasnt enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Most of the globals including the GGEM/GFS totally dun goofed in the short-term with the boxing day blizzard. Even the Euro did not correctly predict that the best dynamics/qpf would be in NJ. The Hi-Res models did very well, so I would give them extra weight in this situation, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hey Tombo, where is the 18Z ECM surface low and at what pressure? it looks like around 100 or so miles ese of morehead city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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