Alpha5 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hi res models agree on putting nassua and SW CT under the deform band and area of best forcing and lifting SNE still does well with WAA, but the hi res's agree that the best forcing will not be near over hartford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Even if those numbers are slighly overdone... consider ~1.65" QPF for western LI on average with a 10-1 ratio. That's 16.5" in twelve hours. Take that map as is and get 20-30" with locally higher amounts. Take the same ~1.65" QPF and shift in ten miles to the west over Bergen County where ratios are probably more like 12-1 or 14-1 and get 20-24" with locally higher amounts. Quite incredible for such a fast moving system. Exactly what I was thinking about due to the elevation around that region of New Jersey. I'd like to stand at Twombly Landing (most NE area of NJ marked by a location name on a map) and then go to Alpine and do a comparison of conditions. Hmm, road trip per the NMM, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ndbc.noaa.gov. I like the old fashioned http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/rmd.shtml for buoy data... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What is Upton doing. I am 20 miles due west of NYC and this is my local forecast: Tonight: Snow, mainly after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. East wind 5 to 13 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Wednesday: Snow, mainly before 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. Northwest wind between 11 and 13 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. And we have a WSW for 8 to 14. How does that make any sense? Yeah I don't quite understand what Mt. Holly or Upton is doing. They played it up yesterday then played it down after the 00z globals didn't do so great. IMO some of their forecasted totals atm could be doubled. The conservative nature of the forecast is almost mind blowing and the general public is going to be quite suprised when the area recieves close to 30" in some spots that currently say 8-14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah,you can see that the GFS initialization and forecast is too far east for where the low is now. The GFS with its notorious SE bias. Even at this range, crazy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What is Upton doing. I am 20 miles due west of NYC and this is my local forecast: Tonight: Snow, mainly after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. East wind 5 to 13 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Wednesday: Snow, mainly before 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. Northwest wind between 11 and 13 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. And we have a WSW for 8 to 14. How does that make any sense? You might be in a snowhole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Upton seems to give a general area wide accumulation in their WSW writeups. Not sure why they do that when it totally contradicts their zone forecasts. Mt holly does the split based on snowfall amount variations. What is Upton doing. I am 20 miles due west of NYC and this is my local forecast: Tonight: Snow, mainly after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. East wind 5 to 13 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Wednesday: Snow, mainly before 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. Northwest wind between 11 and 13 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. And we have a WSW for 8 to 14. How does that make any sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loadletterpaper Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Thanks for posting that link for BI. Agreed - I've been irritated by the new fashioned version. Hadn't noticed the "classic" link. ndbc.noaa.gov. I like the old fashioned http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/rmd.shtml for buoy data... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ndbc.noaa.gov. I like the old fashioned http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/rmd.shtml for buoy data... Thanks. http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=hcgn7 That buoy is already down to 1015.5 hpa at 1700z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 But the bigger issue is if you read the Winter storm warning it says 8 to 14" for all counties. Then you go to your local zone forecast, so for me Union county, and it says 4 to 10" (3 to 7 tonight, 1 to 3 tomorrow). Its been saying that since last night. so which one do you listen to if you are just the average person trying to figure out what the forecast is? Yeah I don't quite understand what Mt. Holly or Upton is doing. They played it up yesterday then played it down after the 00z globals didn't do so great. IMO some of their forecasted totals atm could be doubled. The conservative nature of the forecast is almost mind blowing and the general public is going to be quite suprised when the area recieves close to 30" in some spots that currently say 8-14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Don't laugh, first time with new program, but the NAM looks almost spot on (maybe a tad slower) vs. current sat image. The center of cirulation is JUST SW of the 1016 low dipicted on NAM at 6hrs (valid 18z) No laughing, would like to see more of this with the main models in use for verification purposes. Good work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah I don't quite understand what Mt. Holly or Upton is doing. They played it up yesterday then played it down after the 00z globals didn't do so great. IMO some of their forecasted totals atm could be doubled. The conservative nature of the forecast is almost mind blowing and the general public is going to be quite suprised when the area recieves close to 30" in some spots that currently say 8-14". Its unfortunate how they have to play to the media and public hysterics instead of just forecasting the weather.. And its ironic they don't overdo the forecast to be better safe than sorry. 30" though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like an amazing amount of qpf for such a short time, it will be horrendously impossible to commute tomorrow. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The storm is about as strong as what was modeled 6 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hi res models agree on putting nassua and SW CT under the deform band and area of best forcing and lifting SNE still does well with WAA, but the hi res's agree that the best forcing will not be near over hartford Agree, every hi-res model is putting a heavy band over us. I think we do better with this storm than we did with the 12/26 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Some storms to consider.... Feb 1961... NYC 16 inches JFK 24 inches.... Feb 1969... NYC 15 inches JFK 24 inches.... Feb 1983... NYC 18 inches JFK 22 inches.... Feb 2003... NYC 20 inches JFK 26 inches there is some resemblance to feb 1969 with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 By 21Z we will already know if the 6Z NAM intensification will be completely out to lunch since it has a 1012 right along the NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Its unfortunate how they have to play to the media and public hysterics instead of just forecasting the weather.. And its ironic they don't overdo the forecast to be better safe than sorry. 30" though? Some of the high res models have western LI getting well over 2" QPF. You do the math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The precipitation is also 6 hours ahead of schedule. The storm is about as strong as what was modeled 6 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 By 21Z we will already know if the 6Z NAM intensification will be completely out to lunch since it has a 1012 right along the NC coast. I know I am in ABE but baro I have aquestion,.... with the storm already stronger than the models even from 6z, how much further west do you think the SLP can come, I know that the precip shield may be more wound, but I am curious what you think in your expert opinion, of course I won't hold you to it! You are a valuable asset thank you for your contributions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The precipitation is also 6 hours ahead of schedule. Does that mean shift 6 hours forward or 6 hours longer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The precipitation is also 6 hours ahead of schedule. That much? So are we looking at a 6-7pm start time in the NYC metro area then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Agree, every hi-res model is putting a heavy band over us. I think we do better with this storm than we did with the 12/26 blizzard. Fellow SW CT snow lover...I think were going to get crushed. The hi-res models are hinting at a deform band like the one in NNJ on 12/26 right over us..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ...any long island guys worried about a changeover ?? i'm in eastport (just W of gabreski)..hearing high accum... but i'm also hearing changeover issues..?? ..what will the temps be during the event?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It is really not that it is stronger, it is just that the model is 6 hours behind. I know I am in ABE but baro I have aquestion,.... with the storm already stronger than the models even from 6z, how much further west do you think the SLP can come, I know that the precip shield may be more wound, but I am curious what you think in your expert opinion, of course I won't hold you to it! You are a valuable asset thank you for your contributions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Based on radar and obs, I would say some people may be surprised at 6pm, yes. Mike, looks like the best banding this time will be painfully east of us, according to the NAM, MM5, etc.... I hope those people get to experience what we did 12/26. That much? So are we looking at a 6-7pm start time in the NYC metro area then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z MM5, 12Z ARW, 12Z NMM all put the heaviest band over Nassau and Western Suffolk tonight through tomorrow. Better resolution on those models vs. the NAM, but a blend would center the band right on the Nassau/Suffolk border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Absolutely. That much? So are we looking at a 6-7pm start time in the NYC metro area then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Fellow SW CT snow lover...I think were going to get crushed. The hi-res models are hinting at a deform band like the one in NNJ on 12/26 right over us..... Lovin' that!!! It seems that they never end up where they are modeled though. Here is to hoping!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What is Upton doing. I am 20 miles due west of NYC and this is my local forecast: Tonight: Snow, mainly after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. East wind 5 to 13 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Wednesday: Snow, mainly before 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. Northwest wind between 11 and 13 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. And we have a WSW for 8 to 14. How does that make any sense? The snow accumulation part is probably auto generated from model output or a rough composite they create. Disregard it in favor of their forecast discussions and warning write ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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