Ridingtime Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The high res models are absolutely mind blowing. This just doesn't happen normally. What a freakin epic winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 what time does this thing wrap up tomorrow? Seems like it might go into early afternoon no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Don't laugh, first time with new program, but the NAM looks almost spot on (maybe a tad slower) vs. current sat image. The center of cirulation is JUST SW of the 1016 low dipicted on NAM at 6hrs (valid 18z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Good morning Jason.... hope you got enough sleep lol. This is going to be a fascinating day and night! Hey Alex! Good enough, haha. Excited to watch this storm blossom. Less than 24 hours until this thing is bombing. Quite a dynamic event, and there will be surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z GFS ensemble mean is west of the op and gives the NYC area 0.75-1.00 QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC EVOLUTION TUE ONWARD...PREFERENCE: NAM/00Z ECMWF/09Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE WITH SOMEINPUT FROM LATEST RUC RUNSWITH THE WAVE OFF THE SERN COAST THE NAM/GFS SFC ANALYSES AREABOUT 2 MB WEAKER THAN OBSERVED. BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER WINDANALYSES... THE NAM MAY BE A LITTLE SSE OF THE OBSERVED SFC LOWPOSN AND TO A GREATER EXTENT THE GFS APPEARS TO BE INITIALIZED TOOFAR EWD. CONTINUING FROM INITIALIZATION TIME THE GFS REMAINS EWDOF THE NAM FOR THE DURATION OF TIME THAT THE SYSTEM AFFECTS THEEAST COAST. THE 09Z SREF MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF FCSTS VALID AT 12ZVERIFY CLOSEST TO OBSERVED AMONG RECENT GUIDANCE AND THE 12ZCANADIAN REG GEM OFFERS REASONABLE SUPPORT FOR THE NAM SCENARIO. 14Z-15Z RUC RUNS MAY BE A LITTLE WEAK BUT DO OFFER A TRACK WWD OFTHE GFS. AFOREMENTIONED CONSIDERATIONS RECOMMEND A COMPROMISEAMONG THE NAM/00Z ECMWF/09Z SREF MEAN WITH SOME IDEAS FROM LATESTRUC RUNS ALSO LIKELY PROVING TO BE HELPFUL. THE COMPROMISE OF THESREF MEAN/ECMWF WITH THE NAM ACCOUNTS FOR THE FACT THAT THE NAMLEANS TO THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE NON-GFS GUIDANCE SPREAD DURING WEDINTO WED NIGHT AND SOMETIMES HAS SLOW BIASES....MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML2.SHTML......500 MB FORECASTS ATWWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...RAUSCH http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This time my area is the one who's only getting 6" while 30-40 miles to my east and northeast, they're getting 20-24"+ amounts. I'm fine with that considering I was near the jackpot of the Boxing Day Storm. I think you'll get a bit more than 6 though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 3 hour pressure change, you can clearly see why the GFS is wrong right out of the gate. The RSM at 9Z and the members of the SREF are doing the same thing, too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Eh, I guess I'll take it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Eh, I guess I'll take it: incredible for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Eh, I guess I'll take it: Wow, that's incredible for LI. The selfish part of me wants to see that bullseye shift like 30 miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC EVOLUTION TUE ONWARD...PREFERENCE: NAM/00Z ECMWF/09Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE WITH SOMEINPUT FROM LATEST RUC RUNSWITH THE WAVE OFF THE SERN COAST THE NAM/GFS SFC ANALYSES AREABOUT 2 MB WEAKER THAN OBSERVED. BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER WINDANALYSES... THE NAM MAY BE A LITTLE SSE OF THE OBSERVED SFC LOWPOSN AND TO A GREATER EXTENT THE GFS APPEARS TO BE INITIALIZED TOOFAR EWD. CONTINUING FROM INITIALIZATION TIME THE GFS REMAINS EWDOF THE NAM FOR THE DURATION OF TIME THAT THE SYSTEM AFFECTS THEEAST COAST. THE 09Z SREF MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF FCSTS VALID AT 12ZVERIFY CLOSEST TO OBSERVED AMONG RECENT GUIDANCE AND THE 12ZCANADIAN REG GEM OFFERS REASONABLE SUPPORT FOR THE NAM SCENARIO. 14Z-15Z RUC RUNS MAY BE A LITTLE WEAK BUT DO OFFER A TRACK WWD OFTHE GFS. AFOREMENTIONED CONSIDERATIONS RECOMMEND A COMPROMISEAMONG THE NAM/00Z ECMWF/09Z SREF MEAN WITH SOME IDEAS FROM LATESTRUC RUNS ALSO LIKELY PROVING TO BE HELPFUL. THE COMPROMISE OF THESREF MEAN/ECMWF WITH THE NAM ACCOUNTS FOR THE FACT THAT THE NAMLEANS TO THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE NON-GFS GUIDANCE SPREAD DURING WEDINTO WED NIGHT AND SOMETIMES HAS SLOW BIASES....MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML2.SHTML......500 MB FORECASTS ATWWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...RAUSCH http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/pmdhmd.html Looks like he completely discounted the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hey Alex! Good enough, haha. Excited to watch this storm blossom. Less than 24 hours until this thing is bombing. Quite a dynamic event, and there will be surprises. In the office now and I'm already exhausted after the marathon session last night. GFS is off with the coastal already. We're going with a NAM/ECMWF blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Eh, I guess I'll take it: WTF?! Only 3" of snow for Huntington?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like he completely discounted the GFS. Yeah,you can see that the GFS initialization and forecast is too far east for where the low is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 In the office now and I'm already exhausted after the marathon session last night. GFS is off with the coastal already. We're going with a NAM/ECMWF blend. Looks like an amazing amount of qpf for such a short time, it will be a horrendous if not impossible commute tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Eh, I guess I'll take it: Nah, not enough, it would be nicer if the QPF was in the yellow shading instead, lol. Incredible how close those purples are to the eastern most tip of NE NJ. 5 miles may actually make a significant difference. What an incredible storm this is going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If this storm has so much potential with QPF and snow depths, why are the NYC media outletsdownplaying it as not comparable to 12/26? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like an amazing amount of qpf for such a short time, it will be a horrendous if not impossible commute tomorrow. going to be interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 In the office now and I'm already exhausted after the marathon session last night. GFS is off with the coastal already. We're going with a NAM/ECMWF blend. I think that is a good bet. The fact the GFS ensemble is W of its own op is a head scratcher--surprised the GFS still can't catch on. I guess I shouldn't be surprised though since the GFS has lagged since day 5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah,you can see that the GFS initialization and forecast is too far east for where the low is now. The GFS is awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nah, not enough, it would be nicer if the QPF was in the yellow shading instead, lol. Incredible how close those purples are to the eastern most tip of NE NJ. 5 miles may actually make a significant difference. What an incredible storm this is going to be. dbc, I hope we can get in it, I believe we will. Reminds me of February 2006 on the ARW/NMM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If this storm has so much potential with QPF and snow depths, why are the NYC media outletsdownplaying it as not comparable to 12/26? I think a lot of folks discounted the mesoscale non-hydrostatic threats and went more inline with global guidance a couple days ago which was way E and weaker--and now they are catching up. Folks meaning media outlets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak22 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like an amazing amount of qpf for such a short time, it will be a horrendous if not impossible commute tomorrow. Will also be an absolutely horrendous day at the airports. Most airlines started letting people switch flights with no penalties yesterday - I was able to move mine to today instead of tomorrow - thankfully! This is the 2nd bomb I will miss. I was in VT over the Boxing Day storm, I'll be in Dallas as of tonight. My next trip is Feb 5 - pencil that in for another big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nah, not enough, it would be nicer if the QPF was in the yellow shading instead, lol. Incredible how close those purples are to the eastern most tip of NE NJ. 5 miles may actually make a significant difference. What an incredible storm this is going to be. Even if those numbers are slighly overdone... consider ~1.65" QPF for western LI on average with a 10-1 ratio. That's 16.5" in twelve hours. Take that map as is and get 20-30" with locally higher amounts. Take the same ~1.65" QPF and shift in ten miles to the west over Bergen County where ratios are probably more like 12-1 or 14-1 and get 20-24" with locally higher amounts. Quite incredible for such a fast moving system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 How is the arw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Anyone know where to get access to the buoy data off the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 dbc, I hope we can get in it, I believe we will. Reminds me of February 2006 on the ARW/NMM. Perhaps, with the biggest QPF numbers just a tad east of that storm. We shall see. If that map verifies, it would be interesting to stand at Twombly Landing which is the most NE spot of NJ marked by a name on a map and then go over to Alpine just west of there and see what the differences would be, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow, that's incredible for LI. The selfish part of me wants to see that bullseye shift like 30 miles west. me too;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What is Upton doing. I am 20 miles due west of NYC and this is my local forecast: Tonight: Snow, mainly after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. East wind 5 to 13 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Wednesday: Snow, mainly before 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. Northwest wind between 11 and 13 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. And we have a WSW for 8 to 14. How does that make any sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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