tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 by 06Z.. .10 - .25 region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:33 PM, algreek3 said: <br />Nope.<br /><br />Thats only 15mm for NYC from hour 12-24. With maybe 1-2 mm after, at most.<br /><br />15mm is only .60" of QPF for NYC.<br /><br /><br /><br />If that verified it is still a significant 8 inches for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS through 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 06z - 09z..... .25 - .50 additional area-wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:33 PM, algreek3 said: Nope. Thats only 15mm for NYC from hour 12-24. With maybe 1-2 mm after, at most. 15mm is only .60" of QPF for NYC. After seeing the NAM tighten up the QPF gradient, I expect the GFS to hold serve. I don't think it's right with the track per say, but this has always been a LI/New England Storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 close to .50 for all of us through hr 21 on the gfs....heavy preciep east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:36 PM, tornadojay said: 06z - 09z..... .25 - .50 additional area-wide That's a west jump. 6z valid for that same time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ditto that from 09z - 12z... so prety much an average of .50 - .75 total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 nice curveball thrown by the GFS. A bit deeper on the coastal and much wetter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 total preciep about .50 from nyc west.....also .50+ on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the GFS more or less gives the entire region similar QPF amounts... whereas, obviously the NAM has an extreme gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:38 PM, Dosh said: nice curveball thrown by the GFS. A bit deeper on the coastal and much wetter! Not really, looks about exactly the same to me and east of the other models. Track goes about over the B/M. Either the NAM or GFS are going down hard later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Stop worrying about model output QPF...this is now a nowcasting event. This is a repeat of 12/26 in terms of the models shifting slightly eastward as the storm approached. NE NJ on northeastward is going to get in on the banding and do very well. Those of you wishing for 2'+ need to realize those events are extremely rare and 6-12" are the norm with miller B's. I still like 10-16" from 287 to Western LI and 16-24" from suffolk county on north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:40 PM, tornadojay said: the GFS more or less gives the entire region similar QPF amounts... whereas, obviously the NAM has an extreme gradient everyone gets like .50-.75 on the gfs? Where is the jackpot, Jay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's only slightly wetter. we're talking less than .1 change On 1/11/2011 at 3:38 PM, Dosh said: nice curveball thrown by the GFS. A bit deeper on the coastal and much wetter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If the GFS depiction at 24hrs came to fruition even 6hrs earlier...we would all get crushed and after reading what some of the mets on here have said, it seems as though that a faster intensification than forecast may be on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS is wetter from central LI eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:41 PM, A-L-E-X said: everyone gets like .50-.75 on the gfs? Where is the jackpot, Jay? We get .75" qpf on the GFS, Alex. The GFS made a little jump west, but it's still nowhere near the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS is lower resolution it will NOT pick up on banding like the mesoscale models will...which is kinda why you see an area wide qpf without a big bullseye. so you can use the GFS for sfc low placement, xfer of energy and stuff like that....but dont take its qpf with you to bed tonite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS looks like it holds serve to me. I would be very uncomfortable betting on more than 12 inches of snow for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:41 PM, Noreaster85 said: Stop worrying about model output QPF...this is now a nowcasting event. This is a repeat of 12/26 in terms of the models shifting slightly eastward as the storm approached. NE NJ on northeastward is going to get in on the banding and do very well. Those of you wishing for 2'+ need to realize those events are extremely rare and 6-12" are the norm with miller B's. I still like 10-16" from 287 to Western LI and 16-24" from suffolk county on north and east. It would be hilarious if the storm went east but the heaviest banding was to the west like with the last storm. It would mean that the storm center going east doesnt necessarily mean less precip in areas just to the west of the progged jackpot zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:45 PM, Dsnowx53 said: We get .75" qpf on the GFS, Alex. The GFS made a little jump west, but it's still nowhere near the NAM. The problem is that the GFS now has support from RGEM and SREFS with regards to QPF amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:46 PM, NorEaster27 said: GFS looks like it holds serve to me. I would be very uncomfortable betting on more than 12 inches of snow for NYC. but you like 10-16"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 HPC says that the Nam had feedback errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:47 PM, algreek3 said: The problem is that the GFS now has support from RGEM and SREFS with regards to QPF amounts. Not really. The RGEM has 37mm in 12-hour period in West/Central LI. The GFS has nothing like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:45 PM, Dsnowx53 said: We get .75" qpf on the GFS, Alex. The GFS made a little jump west, but it's still nowhere near the NAM. Well, with 12:1 ratios that'd be 9 inches.... if we somehow got 15:1 ratios, that would be 11 inches. I know its too soon to tell how much qpf we're going to get but .75 has been a pretty consistent number for us on the GFS. 1.25 on the euro and nam. The funny thing is we demand so much precision of our models during snowstorms-- and yet in a rainstorm .75 and 1.25 dont seem like that wide of a spread. In snowstorms, of course, it means much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:47 PM, algreek3 said: The problem is that the GFS now has support from RGEM and SREFS with regards to QPF amounts. In terms of track, RGEM looks a lot like the NAM and would likely be a similar solution. It's not all about the QPF which is often smoothed, and doesn't reflect very small scale banding/mesoscale aspects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 With the track the RGEM has, weird that it throws so little back to NYC (relatively). As for GFS, definitely a small shift west. 0z on left, 12z on right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:46 PM, NorEaster27 said: GFS looks like it holds serve to me. I would be very uncomfortable betting on more than 12 inches of snow for NYC. Note how artfully worded this is to be completely meaningless, since you don't define what the theshold of "comfort" is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 HPC says the 12z nam is 2mb weaker and possibly SSE with the surface low compared to obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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