am19psu Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just starting up the new thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Craig is usually all tight lipped your right this time he crowing ...! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm thinking this event is going to bust one way or the other...its going to either be something crazy like 10-20 inches or 4-8 with a GFS type track....this could turn into what February 83 was for some inland places forecast to get 3-6 or 4-8 and getting 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm thinking this event is going to bust one way or the other...its going to either be something crazy like 10-20 inches or 4-8 with a GFS type track....this could turn into what February 83 was for some inland places forecast to get 3-6 or 4-8 and getting 20. Wow, Ch.11 WPIX said 'looking at the newest model data'...going with highest accums in inland C NJ/N NJ/NYC/SW CT, rain/sleet mix will hold accums down significantly Ocean, E Manmouth, Long Island... 10-15" NYC and NJ, 4-8" near shore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow, Ch.11 WPIX said 'looking at the newest model data'...going with highest accums in inland C NJ/N NJ/NYC/SW CT, rain/sleet mix will hold accums down significantly Ocean, E Manmouth, Long Island... 10-15" NYC and NJ, 4-8" near shore... What model shows central li west mixing...gotta love tv mets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow, Ch.11 WPIX said 'looking at the newest model data'...going with highest accums in inland C NJ/N NJ/NYC/SW CT, rain/sleet mix will hold accums down significantly Ocean, E Manmouth, Long Island... 10-15" NYC and NJ, 4-8" near shore... Does any data suggest rain for that many locales? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Does any data suggest rain for that many locales? No, the worst case scenario I could see in this event is that the system tracks close enough for sleet or a dryslot into E CT and E LI..otherwise it probably tracks far enough east for all snow everywhere...its a strong enough system or will be that I don't think rain will be an issue outside of Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Good morning... Wow at 6z nam. That run destroyed us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 No, the worst case scenario I could see in this event is that the system tracks close enough for sleet or a dryslot into E CT and E LI..otherwise it probably tracks far enough east for all snow everywhere...its a strong enough system or will be that I don't think rain will be an issue outside of Cape Cod. Just read Upton's AFD-only talks about mixing over the twin forks if 06Z NAM is to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm thinking this event is going to bust one way or the other...its going to either be something crazy like 10-20 inches or 4-8 with a GFS type track....this could turn into what February 83 was for some inland places forecast to get 3-6 or 4-8 and getting 20. If the earlier models hold at 12z, almost no doubt that GFS will cave at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Upton If the GFS is correct with a track right over the benchmark...would expect Li and southeastern CT to observe heaviest quantitative precipitation forecast. I still believe GFS does not deepen the low quite enough as compared to some of the other global models though...so its quantitative precipitation forecast could be underdone. GFS main 800 mb-700 mb frontogenesis just to the east. However...it outputs about an inch of quantitative precipitation forecast east...with around 1/2 inch west. The 00z NAM in contrast outputs over 2 inches east...and 1/2 to 1 inch west. This would translate to over 2 feet of snow east. Op European model (ecmwf) produces 1 1/2 to 2 inch bullseye over Li/southern CT. Always a very difficult job pinpointing exact snow amounts given expected banding...but I can say that the potential exists for well over a foot of snow in spots. Best guess would be at least a foot of snow across southern CT and Li...and 8 to 14 inches from NYC metropolitan/NE New Jersey and lower Hudson Valley. This backed up by sref snow plumes. http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=OKX&StateCode=NY&SafeCityName=Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This storm seems to have a 1983 type of bombastic type of look on the models w/ 8-10 hours of insane precip rates... We shall see.. I really liked being on the western edge of lastnight's models but i guess we'll see what happens.. If NYC/ENJ score a coup again, they will be officially known as the snow capital of the US this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This storm seems to have a 1983 type of bombastic type of look on the models w/ 8-10 hours of insane precip rates... We shall see.. I really liked being on the western edge of lastnight's models but i guess we'll see what happens.. If NYC/ENJ score a coup again, they will be officially known as the snow capital of the US this winter... I like that comparison in terms of its quick and heavy hitting. Obviously a little different setup being a nino and Miller A instead of a hybrid, but once that storm hit it didnt let up until it was over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Fwiw, the Euro ensembles are slightly west and stronger than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Fwiw, the Euro ensembles are slightly west and stronger than the op. Good, so more like the nam. Do you have any qpf output for the ensemble mean, Ant? BTW-- there was someone who was worried earlier that JFK would mix or change over, and I can say that history is on our side with double digit events.... the only 2 double digit snowfall events that I can remember which mixed with sleet or rain were Feb 94 and Jan 96-- and the mixing wasnt significant enough to hold accumulations down any lower than maybe 5 - 10 %-- it was like an inch lower than what NYC got. Mar 93 was just under 10 inches at JFK and just over 10 inches at NYC, so the same rule applied with that one-- mixing doesnt affect us much in the big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Good morning... Wow at 6z nam. That run destroyed us So do the Hi Res models especially the ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 just some more eye candy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If the earlier models hold at 12z, almost no doubt that GFS will cave at 12z. This will be a nail biter if it doesn't. Hard to believe having two significantly different solutions just 12-18 hours before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This will be a nail biter if it doesn't. Hard to believe having two significantly different solutions just 12-18 hours before the storm. It has happened before. Extremely delicate situation here, but with the Hi-Res models going bonkers, the Euro agreeing in full, the ggem, rgem coming on board, and the NAM not backing down, all signs as of now point to a really nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Fwiw, the Euro ensembles are slightly west and stronger than the op. Any word on how the higher res models are doing this morning in regards to strength and location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Any word on how the higher res models are doing this morning in regards to strength and location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SREF shifted slightly east. 1 QPF bubble doesn't get over the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 sref's east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 09z sref backs off with qpf amts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 arw increased qpf for NYC, but made sig changes tot he cut-off west. much closer to delaware river than yesterday. which makes sense given deeper low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 anyone know when SUNY MM5 outputs come out next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SREF is much closer to the GFS than the NAM or the ARW. ironically, the SREF are made up of ARW and NAM members... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 anyone know when SUNY MM5 outputs come out next? it starts rolling at 11AM or so....takes longer than most models.... http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/html/alt_mm5.cgi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 09z sref backs off with qpf amts That's a pretty significant shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SREF is much closer to the GFS than the NAM or the ARW. You seem to pop up whenever precip totals are either cut or the low center moves away from a favorable position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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