SouthCoastMA Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I just don't understand how the GFS/UK and to some Extent the EURO could be this off 24 hours out. I'm skeptical of the western solutions right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 No because ultimately I think it's a red herring right now unless you live at HSE. It's a hit here regardless on ALL models. The only difference is the epic NAM hit or the GFS/Euro compromise. The westward track right now has to do with the gradient offshore, no the dynamics in question off Jersey in 25-35 hours. When I was younger I spent a ton of time watching storms at this stage instead of looking aloft. I figured out 2-3 mb pressure differences, 20 miles here or there at this stage based LOOSELY on buoy obs...meant nothing in the end aside of the rare 1/25 type event. Later on tonight if we have a low curling towards Wall Street I'll care, the NAM does what it does not because it's further west with the surface low when we know it should be a bit further west. It's how it's handling the energy around TN/OH that matters for us from this being the great blizzard of 2011, to a great snowstorm of 2011 excellent, thanks. i thought as much, activity/location at 500mb more relevant than anything for SNE at this point, but wanted to see what others thought because at least the Philly office nudged up snowfall totals in favor of the ETA after taking the low position of SC into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 After seeing the euro, I feel confident in my final call of 11-17" IMBY. Tommorows snow day is a lock but the greedy part of me wonders if we get one off the "lollis" and pull of a 20+ amount and it doesnt stop till tommorow night... Thursday Snow Day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i'll puke.....with the coastal LP tucked in tight to NC coast and argued to go northerly for a while and the 500mb vort a little stronger/ slower could this low just keep riding north a lil longer almost until it over central long island.....that is the worst case scenario in my mind for alot of us in E MA because that would warm the BL the most and have QPF max over GC/WCT /SNY . but others have said a stronger ULL could lead to a later caputure and further east track....so i guess it would depend on 1. track of said coastal (N or NNE) and 2. where mid level low closes off over coastal. but i really don't know if this makes sense messenger....perhaps you could make sense of it. I was mainly illustrating the variability. I'm pretty sure the EC/GFS are right on at 500mb at 24 hours or very very close. Their surface depictions being different - well that's just the GFS doing what it does. That said models all ticked east slowly but consistently just a few days ago from this point onward. With that said I'd say a track now just west of the BM by 20-50 miles up to SE of ACK about 10-40 miles is likely but really that matters a lot less than what happens aloft for most of you. Once the meso models get a good ingest of data they'll be very useful IMO in nailing down finer details. Look at the ARW at 6 hours, it's trying to ride the energy pretty far into TN when it appears that's not the case. Same thing the NAM did too. This appears to be the pivotal point that probably leads to the difference later...the NAM/MM5/WRF/clones wanted to place more energy right into TN vs the GFS/UK/EC deflecting it northeast already. That's the big split at 18z and it'll be interesting to see if the NAM catches it, or just pushes it back another 6 hours. It seems to take steps backward from solutions vs just the quick leap lately. Take the Euro/GFS combo track and sprinkle in meso effects which may make the low do funny things. The Euro isn't the final say, it ticked east late in the game last time right up to the end. But I wouldn't rule out an adjustment/wobble either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Could be a fun 10 days coming up here if the Euro is correct....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Clipper snows over the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If I get 12" and 30 minutes to my east or west gets 18" tomorrow, should I be angry? Nahh. I'm looking forward to a classic New England winter's day tomorrow. Just give me one clap of thunder, that's all I ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 yes but look where it has the low a few hours from now....i.e the low is tucked close to Nc coast and uncle ukie takes it almost NE (from where it is now) in the short term .....that doesn't appear feasible from anything i've read. yeah i don't know that it's right or wrong... you can see in the isobars that it tries to tug nw. it has the same trough connecting back to the ULL that we see on most guidance right now. it just never allows that inside area to get established. that's kind of the theme with the globals vs. the meso models. we'll know by a little after 00z i think. as it will either be making a b-line for ACY or heading NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NH wow, thanks for the info. sounds good for my area, since i am SE of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 it's definitely tougher the further SE you are. You should have been a politician. Lol. Thanks for letting me down gently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hadn't even noticed but BOX updated their map as of 1:05 PM. They seem to be hedging a little colder than than the NAM. More SREF-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I just don't understand how the GFS/UK and to some Extent the EURO could be this off 24 hours out. I'm skeptical of the western solutions right now. They're not. Look at this animation at 6 hours. The first panel is the 18z 500mb 0h Ruc, the second is the 6h 12z NAM. panel 3 is the ruc again, panel 4 the GFS. Notice the "little" problem with vorticity near TN? Which causes the NAM to be more aggressive with heights. The ball started rolling this early on. There's really no question the GFS was much better even 6 hours in. The fact that the GFS/Euro are very similar later....tells me that's the right school of thought at 500. EDIT: I need to stress....there are many ways to get to the same destination. I think this points to the NAM's lack of credibility in the shorter term which is 100% backed up by NCEP verifications as of late, but it could be that it just gets to the same solution later. Reserved thoughts until post 18z and really post 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Could be a fun 10 days coming up here if the Euro is correct....... Scott the met alluded to this yesterday. Pattern relaxing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hadn't even noticed but BOX updated their map as of 1:05 PM. 'S been like that for hours, actually; doesn't appear to be an update of any sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Thanks Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hadn't even noticed but BOX updated their map as of 1:05 PM. They seem to be hedging a little colder than than the NAM. More SREF-ish. 9" for Otis AFB, that's a ballsy call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 'S been like that for hours, actually; doesn't appear to be an update of any sort. Graphic last modified: Tuesday, 11th January, 2011 @ 1:05PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Chucked them high and chucked them far on my final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Could be a fun 10 days coming up here if the Euro is correct....... snowbowl for Pats/Jets game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 As far as the Euro goes, it's clear to me that it initialized the SLP quite a bit east of the actual. High res models NAM/RGEM are the way to go in this situation vs GFS/Crazy Uncle I just don't understand how the GFS/UK and to some Extent the EURO could be this off 24 hours out. I'm skeptical of the western solutions right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rboarderi Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Graphic last modified: Tuesday, 11th January, 2011 @ 1:05PM They did that yesterday too, updated the time but not the graphic. It is the exact same graphic as earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 'S been like that for hours, actually; doesn't appear to be an update of any sort. it's the same as earlier. They haven't changed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Graphic last modified: Tuesday, 11th January, 2011 @ 1:05PM I can read, my little cabbage. Nonetheless, I've been checking that map the way Dustin Hoffman watched People's Court in Rainman, and I'm here to tell ya, that was the way it currently looks well prior to 1:05. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 snowbowl for Pats/Jets game Lt snow possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Clipper snows over the weekend Around the 16th, Maybe something bigger miller b'ish around the 19th........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 I can read, my little cabbage. Nonetheless, I've been checking that map the way Dustin Hoffman watched People's Court in Rainman, and I'm here to tell ya, that was the way it currently looks well prior to 1:05. It's sleet for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 LEt's worry about this event first sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Around the 16th, Maybe something bigger miller b'ish around the 19th........ I'm flying out of Logan on the 19th so it's a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 You guys want a new thread for the 18z suite? We're hitting the 1000 post threshold. My moo is working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's sleet for you! How much change over do you expect in PVD metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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