dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Thanks for the update! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 "changes over" to rain? Wow, that sucks. I don't want to see this track any tighter, and a risk of rain in my neck of the woods. RUC is always a bit too far N and W with coastals...like clockwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I dunno about 2" for BOS...I think that is too much...it looks more like 1.6 or 1.7" or so to me. They definitely get absolutely hammered though. Its still a fantastic run for anyone east of the CT Valley....its west of there where this makes a difference. Gun to head if you had to choose the NAM/RGEM vs Euro/GFS/UK thought train which way would you go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Didn't the MM5 nail the 12/26 banding? Did not follow it but i thought i heard it did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Next time go east of the rotary and check out downtown. It's actually a pretty cool little town that still isn't polluted by too many chain retailers etc. Yup--up and coming place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Gun to head if you had to choose the NAM/RGEM vs Euro/GFS/UK thought train which way would you go? I want my gun to head question answered first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Did not follow it but i thought i heard it did Yeah, it hit the dry slot very hard I think and ended up being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Whats the euro do for me to you to Bob? Cold enough? QPF? If we're following the same pattern as 3 days ago there will be a minor correction again tonight. It would be a wet snowbomb for a while. I think you may mix, but it could be a 33F snow for you..lol. Bob gets hammered. We'll see what the 18z suite does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I want my gun to head question answered first. I would like a gun to head on ratios, if possible . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Gun to head if you had to choose the NAM/RGEM vs Euro/GFS/UK thought train which way would you go? Well the Euro is in between the NAM and GFS/UK...so I'd probably go with the Euro. I think the Euro is split right between the two camps and that's probably the way to go right now. The whole time I've been leaning 70% mesoscale models and 30% globals. I think this storm tracks inside of ACK...so I guess I might go a bit NW of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I want my gun to head question answered first. In light of the situation out west bad choice of words on my part. Can we get a breakdown on the QPF/Temps? It looks cold, and a little less impressive than the GFS at 24hs based on 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 wow nmm has about 3" QPF for our area I'd favor the ARW...it's a more advanced physics package and looks more reasonable with the QPF distibution and amounts. The NMM is going nuts...it's printing out qpf of over an inch in 3 hours near Cumberland, RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Good trends but can't do cartwheels yet. Well, maybe a somersault or two. It gives me quite a bit of confidence. Dryslot, how much does Lebanon, NH get roughly? My buddy lives there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I thought we wuz brothas I think the initial geography was presented as I described. But, the spirit of GC is really a state of mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i think a blend of 15z sref+euro+meso modeling will be answer key this afternoon. still supports widespread 10-20 with locally 24 possible. All we are really figuring out is exactly when and where the mid level circ closes off over the coastal in order to create the anomalous U wind jet and setup deformation band. Sooner it does it, more western track, and more moisture on anomalous -U wind throws heavier precip farther west..later...its a bit east. All just details at this point for exactly where the centroid of max snow is. I still always shade northwest of 700mb low track as my best area, which is typically also northwest of qpf max in model world. here it is folks..Read it and remember it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Getting better! It is getting better. Even tamarack up there in New Sharon might get a decent dump. My 4-6 call yesterday is beginning to look foolish. Guess I'll keep my day job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 still a lot of guidance pointing toward a bit of hang-back/comma head precip across a good chunk of E MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 . . . Maybe angry guy up in N. Maine will pull a win out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 okay so it comes down to where the mid level circulation closes off...over the coastal.....for the track and big totals.......either way i like where i am in w. framingham. looks like solid foot+ either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well the Euro is in between the NAM and GFS/UK...so I'd probably go with the Euro. I think the Euro is split right between the two camps and that's probably the way to go right now. The whole time I've been leaning 70% mesoscale models and 30% globals. I think this storm tracks inside of ACK...so I guess I might go a bit NW of the Euro. That's kind of how I feel too. I think the euro is a hair too far east, but perhaps it's on to something. My guess would be near ACK, or something like near MVY-ACK and on to the ene from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 here it folks..Read it and remember it i don't think you have any reason to be nervous. i still don't think folks should be chucking 20-30" totals too much but you'll do fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Blend the meso models/ NAM and Euro..blend them.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i don't think you have any reason to be nervous. i still don't think folks should be chucking 20-30" totals too much but you'll do fine. I'm not . i'm good for 14 or so..Nothing has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm chucking up a 20" for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That's kind of how I feel too. I think the euro is a hair too far east, but perhaps it's on to something. My guess would be near ACK, or something like near MVY-ACK and on to the ene from there. I think the slight tick E of the GFS ens mean, 12z NAM (still amped but ticked E from 06z), and 12z Euro might be hinting that a Buzzards Bay or Narragansett Bay track was a little too amped up. But I've learned never to discount anything in a setup like this...all we have to do is look back to a little over 5 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 It would be a wet snowbomb for a while. I think you may mix, but it could be a 33F snow for you..lol. Bob gets hammered. We'll see what the 18z suite does. I'm miffed right now, honestly. I'm going to drill the SREF's into my head. They seem to be more inline with the Euro at this point so I like that blend right now. The NAM is still the outlier along with the rest of the Mesoscale Models (MM5, RGEM, etc...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 My daughter's school just got canceled for tomorrow Bridgewater-Raynham. Kind of sucks now with the automated phone calls...Takes to excitement out of waking up and listening to the radio or watch tv and hoping to see/hear your town. I wonder if Thursday's school is in danger too with the precip hanging around into Wed. night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm chucking up a 20" for me. See you and raise you 21" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It gives me quite a bit of confidence. Dryslot, how much does Lebanon, NH get roughly? My buddy lives there. 1.25"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It would be a wet snowbomb for a while. I think you may mix, but it could be a 33F snow for you..lol. Bob gets hammered. We'll see what the 18z suite does. Yep. The heights on the NAM are probably a draw with the GFS but it's again the vorticity placement that seems to give it trouble. It looks off pretty bad to me around TN. The max seems to have scooted a little bit NE which is what the GFS and now the RUC show. Well the Euro is in between the NAM and GFS/UK...so I'd probably go with the Euro. I think the Euro is split right between the two camps and that's probably the way to go right now. The whole time I've been leaning 70% mesoscale models and 30% globals. I think this storm tracks inside of ACK...so I guess I might go a bit NW of the Euro. What concerns me about the meso models is they're smoking the same dope as the NAM at 500 in many cases. (I've never bothered to verify a 6h ARW forecast...but it looks like it was brutal aloft) If at 18z we seem the NAM adjust at 5h towards the GFS/Euro we can put the NAM out to pasture 12z. The euro/uk/gfs are all pretty much lock step at 500mb h24. it's only the NAM/RGEM that go bezerk with the speedmax and like I said red flags on that earlier. In the end the other day all models, global and regional/meso shifted east inside of 24 hours. What's different here is the overall trajectory, this one is not getting shot out E regardless, so what we are seeing is slight timing adjustments that effect the track/CCB (with regards to the 5h vorticity centers). So far everything I see at 18z WV/RUC points to the NAM being OTL, but let's see. What the meso's may more correctly pick up on is a later tendency for this to hook in for a bit as it develops vs a smoother track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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