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The day has come, January 11-12 Snowstorm


Baroclinic Zone

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Lundberg AWT

The 850mb low tracking eastward across the Ohio Valley this afternoon and early tonight quickly redevelops along and off the New Jersey coast by early tomorrow morning, then it slows down as it moves northeastward from there in tandem with the surface storm and upper-level low. This enhances the surface inflow to the storm, extends it longer across Long Island and New England and explains why they could be looking at 20 to maybe 30 inches in a few select spots with the storm. I bet winds gust over 50 miles per hour somewhere in that box for a time, which would likely blow the snow about sufficiently to reduce the visibility to a few hundred yards, hence the concern for this to become a blizzard in time.

There will likely be a transition to ice and rain from the eastern tip of Long Island to southeastern Massachusetts, cutting down amounts there. However, just inland from there, it's game on, and it will be brutal for much of tomorrow there.

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Just looking at guidance and still worried about rather pedestrian snow numbers region wide considering the rest of the output. Taken literally a foot is the ceiling for anyone. I don't buy it exactly bit this is a good test of the use of this as a flag.

Check out the Global GEM then talk to me!

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Based on the nam, mm5, arw, and nmm, I'd say about 18" for our back yards, assuming the euro holds serve from 0z.

That is my thinking. If we get it will be most snow on ground I've seen around here since 93/94 - I think that was correct year - no melt with snow every week.

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After reading these posts on this pending storm for the last couple days, several observations:

1) There doesn't seem to be as much conversation on where the R/S gets to as I would've suspected. I imagine all the way up to 128 has some taint if we get the NAM solution.

2) There seems to be a very sharp QPF gradient to the north which if the GFS is correct, may negatively impact many ski areas. I don't expect much from this one in RGC (real God's country, western Mass hills don't count as far as I'm concerned :whistle:)

3) A number of meteorologists on this sight are brilliant and collectively give the most vivid and up to date (and educated) window possible into what could happen. I appreciate all that you do and the ability for me to observe and learn. Thank you.

4) There are a few people on here who don't have Met tags but sound brilliant as well. However, I can't but help but see through some of their obvious biases (i.e., something tells me Messenger would be the most please person in the world if this storm exits hard right and we get a dusting, I believe he's a contrarian at heart!) Perhaps more important than all the models and experience education mets get, they seem to be better at checking their emotions at the door (for the most part).

5) Lastly, I am fortunate that I am in the Boston metro area for this storm. Barring major taint or the messenger scenario, tomorrow should be an epic situation to witness. My humble non-met opinion is that an area from about +/- 15 miles from a putnam, ct to smithfield, ri to woburn, ma line (with perhaps the exception of the immediate coastal plain around boston) all get 16"+ with some 20"-24" bonus areas.

Enjoy all, I'll go back to reading now. :snowman:

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Do you know if the government pay the private sector for that day off?

Ha!

But businesses have to balance a day's work vs lawsuits if someone is hurt on the way to/from work...

At my old job, our company had an incident where a secretary was killed driving home in an ice storm after her boss wouldn't let her leave early. He later became the regional VP for health and safety. Big settlement $$$

We always closed for snow/ice after that

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I bet none of the kids want to do anything in school today :lol:

I remember being in school and on a day before a storm nobody would feel like doing anything...everyone was too excited.

My students are working quite well and don't seem to care about the snow... weird. I show a few of them some of the maps and send them to my vice principal...

Right now they are building homemade spring scales and triple beam balances. Quite fun!!!

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My students are working quite well and don't seem to care about the snow... weird. I show a few of them some of the maps and send them to my vice principal...

Right now they are building homemade spring scales and triple beam balances. Quite fun!!!

wow...usually kids get real excited about this sort of stuff...mainly b/c it cancels school :lol:

I used to love playing around with triple beam balances! were so much fun.

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i mentioned this on a previous post

any thought that a stronger OV low/UL could result in things taking off a little slower along the coast?

just a thought.

i heard that a stronger ULL system could cause the coastal low to take a TAD Further east path.......because the stronger ull may be slower and thus the capture would be a tad futher east....and then sorta turn the coastal NNW or so for a time.

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