Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Some models gave a little oes before it came in, so yeah a little -sn is possible tonight. thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Can someone decipher the MM5 for me imby at TAN? I'm too busy to rifle through all the maps. Quick glance, it looks pretty damn sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Speaking of precursor signs... pretty interesting visible loop going on right now off the Carolina coast....talk about vorticity. http://aviationweath...tiple&itype=vis Any lightning? That is always a good thing... or is it when it is near FL... I forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Here's the GEFS...it's supporting the OP pretty hardcore now. even you would get plastered with 18" in that scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Here's the GEFS...it's supporting the OP pretty hardcore now with the apparent shift towards a litte later close off, which is great news for NNE. It is? looks much wetter than the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Lots of moderate to heavy snow obs coming out of Ohio with that upper air system. That's almost always a good sign...especially when they weren't modeled to get all that much. Strong vort.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Lots of moderate to heavy snow obs coming out of Ohio with that upper air system. That's almost always a good sign...especially when they weren't modeled to get all that much. i mentioned this on a previous post any thought that a stronger OV low/UL could result in things taking off a little slower along the coast? just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GGEM - remember we've been told a million times even CMC doesn't use it inside of 48 but fair is fair...RGEM mirror. Not saying much with the GEFS either they're lower res...just trying to pull a fox news - fair and balanced LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 even you would get plastered with 18" in that scenario Somebody needs a cache cleansing, Thats not the right map......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Any lightning? That is always a good thing... or is it when it is near FL... I forget Only lightning right now is way down in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Somebody needs a cache cleansing, Thats not the right map......... 72 hours would be friday 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 some of the products out there have a really nasty comma head on this thing sweeping across the area behind the main thrust of snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I know we are still trying to figure this one out. but on the 12z gfs look at the 192 hours another coastal bomb? shaping up to be a good January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Here's the GEFS...it's supporting the OP pretty hardcore now with the apparent shift towards a litte later close off, which is great news for NNE. Clubbed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 lol I don't think it's even important. It's not related to bombing or anything like that. Just the thought of something like that again makes me want to put my head through a window I never want to go through another bandy system again...unless it's a tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 72 hours would be friday 12z... Thats better..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What site do you guys typically use for radar imagery? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 72 hours would be friday 12z... the ensembles don't support the operational...they are NW of it...which at this range is pretty ridiculous. Hence the precip max is also NW of the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Here's the GEFS...it's supporting the OP pretty hardcore now with the apparent shift towards a litte later close off, which is great news for NNE. Looks like a nice little increase in my area. Like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I've said a bunch of times I'd ride the euro regardless of what it said at 12z. I think the NAM/RGEM have demonstrated just recently they'll be too far NW or I should say they could be too far NW. That may be totally wrong this time, but that was a decent shift at 12z and although it's not enough yet to rock the apple cart, if it continued again in the next runs you've got a solution much closer to the Euro/GFS. I understand the thought that the meso's should be better here and again they may well be, but I've not shoveled many feet of snow the NMM and ARW have delivered. I think we had all largely discarded them in SNE and up until this event they're rarely mentioned for a reason. Same goes with the MM5 although it has had its moments this year just like the ARW. I'm kind of done making the point for now because I don't know it'll continue at 18z. If it does then we have something to talk about if the NAM is still the NW outlier. In posting the maps earlier right or wrong later, the thought was there. All of those models absolutely nailed the Boxing Day storm this year... they all had that deform band out in eastern NY and heavy QPF along E.MA with a dry area in CT and central MA. I could post the images if anyone wants to be reminded. IMO that event gave me a bit more respect for those models and cweat you even said they nailed it...I remember your praise for the MM5 after that storm. You bashed the GFS endlessly during that storm IIRC, lol, but now its got the right idea with this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What is the Boxing Day storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Ekster..you never answered Scooter before...do you agree with his jackpot area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Lots of moderate to heavy snow obs coming out of Ohio with that upper air system. That's almost always a good sign...especially when they weren't modeled to get all that much. Nice. . . . BTW, thanks for the feedback regarding the QPF line movement yesterday. The margin of error that you mentioned makes sense. I meant to say thanks lastnight, but the posts were coming hard and heavy, so things got lost in the shuffle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Lots of moderate to heavy snow obs coming out of Ohio with that upper air system. That's almost always a good sign...especially when they weren't modeled to get all that much. I remember the Taunton AFD the day before the Blizzard of 05, referencing the 6" to 12"+ amounts falling across the Ohio Valley as a sign of big things to come in New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It is? looks much wetter than the op Yeah it is in terms of QPF which is what OSU etc said should have been the case anyway. It's a moot point anyway Kev and NCEP is using your favorite model, the RUC. Will would say correctly that the RUC ALWAYS displaces lows too close to shore, he's probably said it correctly a bundle of tiems and I'd agree but this is all very interesting from NCEP and really speaks to the fact that we need Dr. Feelgood to deliver a semi-final verdict. I think the GFS trajectory won't be bad, the max QPF should be over Bob's head/ri/will not mine though as it will adjust west. EDIT: BTW the latest Ruc is well south or southeast of earlier Rucs after 5-6 hours...it sucks with low placement.. ...ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC EVOLUTION TUE ONWARD... PREFERENCE: NAM/00Z ECMWF/09Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE WITH SOME INPUT FROM LATEST RUC RUNS WITH THE WAVE OFF THE SERN COAST THE NAM/GFS SFC ANALYSES ARE ABOUT 2 MB WEAKER THAN OBSERVED. BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER WIND ANALYSES... THE NAM MAY BE A LITTLE SSE OF THE OBSERVED SFC LOW POSN AND TO A GREATER EXTENT THE GFS APPEARS TO BE INITIALIZED TOO FAR EWD. CONTINUING FROM INITIALIZATION TIME THE GFS REMAINS EWD OF THE NAM FOR THE DURATION OF TIME THAT THE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST. THE 09Z SREF MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF FCSTS VALID AT 12Z VERIFY CLOSEST TO OBSERVED AMONG RECENT GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z CANADIAN REG GEM OFFERS REASONABLE SUPPORT FOR THE NAM SCENARIO. 14Z-15Z RUC RUNS MAY BE A LITTLE WEAK BUT DO OFFER A TRACK WWD OF THE GFS. AFOREMENTIONED CONSIDERATIONS RECOMMEND A COMPROMISE AMONG THE NAM/00Z ECMWF/09Z SREF MEAN WITH SOME IDEAS FROM LATEST RUC RUNS ALSO LIKELY PROVING TO BE HELPFUL. THE COMPROMISE OF THE SREF MEAN/ECMWF WITH THE NAM ACCOUNTS FOR THE FACT THAT THE NAM LEANS TO THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE NON-GFS GUIDANCE SPREAD DURING WED INTO WED NIGHT AND SOMETIMES HAS SLOW BIASES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What is the Boxing Day storm? Last months Blizzard - post Christmas Storm. I think Boxing Day is a Canadian holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What is the Boxing Day storm? 2 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 monster 12Z GGEM hit over ACK...looks even a bit juicier than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Ekster..you never answered Scooter before...do you agree with his jackpot area? The jackpot area is anywhere but your BY...040 winds aren't going to cut it for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just the thought of something like that again makes me want to put my head through a window I never want to go through another bandy system again...unless it's a tropical system. I am just mildly concerned that the MM5 map has that bulge of much lower qpf that essentially stretches from the Monadnocks down through N. ORH Co. and out towards GC. We saw that during the blizzard and it just kept expanding rather than shrinking. It's weird that it's placed E. of the Ct Riv Valley. My hope is that the dynamics of this system are much different than the blizzard and that qpf hole is just an anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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