moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well boys I'm ready to chuck 'em.... 12"-20" statewide. The Euro's track sold me on it. You've made Kevin's day. For the fun of it, drop a "spot 2'" dot on his head in your map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This should make Kevin happy. Yeah I thought even last night conservative was still the way to go... especially until the globals (i.e. Euro) ticked west. Still think we're going to have some issues with where the best banding sets up but based on the tracks that seem to be setting up we seem to be in a near perfect spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Kevin will finally beat 14" I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Morning there hungover Weenies. Man Jerry you rocked the party last night, Snoop and you, hope you remember the hot broad you were banging think her name was GOA. Some chick named AO has taken over the party and man does she shake that thang. Tonight through tomorrow is going to be the bomb, an electrifying thunderous surreal visual experience. Get your rest weenies. NNE crew arriving enmasse tomorrow, crank it up, some morning music provided by your own master of spin Rev KeV, hit it Rev Trivia Memory lane for the nonbelievers and party Ginx Now that the Warministas have abandoned the hot January idea instead they are saying cold and dry. We finished Dec well over normal precip, expect the same, that supposedly dead STJ seems to keep coming at us. I can not believe some are STILL bitching about the neg NAO, good god almighty. I am beginning to think that some people are insatiable. Ginx, on 30 November 2010 - 11:44 AM, said: As we thought, you got to give the AO negative state lots of respect, even when it rises after the precipitous drop there is a bounce back drop. All hail the AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Kevin will finally beat 14" I think. you mean 14.1".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cannae Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Air Force MM5 also anti-GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The NAM would bury GC. Perfect H7 track for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well boys I'm ready to chuck 'em.... 12"-20" statewide. The Euro's track sold me on it. Cool, when are you on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I would love to see a shift 10 to15 miles east so I don't have to worry about any mixing. As of now I am very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah I thought even last night conservative was still the way to go... especially until the globals (i.e. Euro) ticked west. Still think we're going to have some issues with where the best banding sets up but based on the tracks that seem to be setting up we seem to be in a near perfect spot. I definitely see what you meant by going towards the more conservative side of things until there was better support and consensus. It's still kind of hard to judge exactly where the best banding may set itself up but it does look like we may see most of N. CT (perhaps much of CT) get into this band...the question though becomes where does the band sort of sit...I could see that occurring from NE MA (up near Ray) down through NE CT...possibly just to the east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Even for BOS it could be 10" then dryslot or 18". We are right on the line. yeah. all of e ma is in a weird position. the thermal structure is unique in this event. after checking over everything...i think the range for MBY right now is about 2 to 12" and i can see merit in any number in that range. awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well boys I'm ready to chuck 'em.... 12"-20" statewide. The Euro's track sold me on it. Hey wow. Now I'm ready to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 HPC even after the overnight guidance not hitting it that hard.....says 8-16 along the I95 corridor as the heavy snow area. That seems surprising to me given the Euro numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I definitely see what you meant by going towards the more conservative side of things until there was better support and consensus. It's still kind of hard to judge exactly where the best banding may set itself up but it does look like we may see most of N. CT (perhaps much of CT) get into this band...the question though becomes where does the band sort of sit...I could see that occurring from NE MA (up near Ray) down through NE CT...possibly just to the east of us. As I mentioned just before the lock in the other thread, the Euro and WRF ARW pcp shields through 48hrs look EXTREMELY similar.... Once the rgem started coming west I was really hopefully but it honestly looks like my backyard is going to get buried in snow. CT looks fabulous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well boys I'm ready to chuck 'em.... 12"-20" statewide. The Euro's track sold me on it. YEAH >>>balls in hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Maybe Ekster should camp out at his parents, instead of Attlehole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millpondwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm not at work, but it looks like maybe near ACK or ACK sound?? The euro has the center approaching the eastern tip of LI to maybe about 30 miles off the southeast tip, while at the time bombing from around 1002mb down to 987 in 6hrs ending at 12z. It then bears off to the left tracking between ACK and MVY and ends up about 30 miles east of Welfleet. Whats interesting is that it only has the low deepening an additional 4-5mb to 984 or so between 12z-18z. I wonder if thats right or if rapid deepending continues? If so look out Cape and islands for the winds! Here's hoping Middlesex valley and SNH finally gets back intot he bullseye. Bare ground everywhere around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 CT looks to be in a great spot. How come you won't post snowfall totals...juist ignoring all request for them lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomWH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 HPC even after the overnight guidance not hitting it that hard.....says 8-16 along the I95 corridor as the heavy snow area. That seems surprising to me given the Euro numbers. seems reasonable, would it be wise to use any one model verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 How come you won't post snowfall totals...juist ignoring all request for them lol 30"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 As I mentioned just before the lock in the other thread, the Euro and WRF ARW pcp shields through 48hrs look EXTREMELY similar.... Once the rgem started coming west I was really hopefully but it honestly looks like my backyard is going to get buried in snow. CT looks fabulous... Definitely a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So the Operational GFS has been stuck furthest southeast, and the weakest, why? After the post Christmas storm, anything is on the table. I have my money on the Eurp/NAM solution but I cannot help but be warry. Plus, Gray is being very conservative on amounts for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Clouds have moved in....glad to see it as it keeps it colder but didn't expect. 17.4/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 How come you won't post snowfall totals...juist ignoring all request for them lol As of now, I think 12-18 for you, with a lolli of 20 possible. There are still some important questions of track and various low placements. I thought the 06z NAM might actually favor west of you, but I don't know how correct it will be. It is still the western outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Can't believe how terrible the GFS is...pretty much over 1.25" on the NAM,SREFs, RGEM, and EURO for MBY. GFS barely has 0.75". Really don't want to see NAM tick any further west or eastern CT may have dryslot issues while western CT jackpots yet again. Anyone suspect convective feedback issues or anything of that nature onthe 6z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just a gorgeous sunrise this morning, lots of pinks, reds Red Sky in morning... er something... GFS is boring, NAM means take warning? I forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The 06z NAM also introduces the idea of possible meso screw zones for some. Another thing to complicate. GC would probably be buried with the 06z NAM track, but the forcing with this is so incredible. BOS could have most of their snow in a 4-6 hr period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I can't wait to see the number of thundersnow reports with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Can't believe how terrible the GFS is...pretty much over 1.25" on the NAM,SREFs, RGEM, and EURO for MBY. GFS barely has 0.75". Really don't want to see NAM tick any further west or eastern CT may have dryslot issues while western CT jackpots yet again. Anyone suspect convective feedback issues or anything of that nature onthe 6z NAM? I think the 6z GFS ramped up QPF a bit for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think the 6z GFS ramped up QPF a bit for you. It totally blew for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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