MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 West is best, Mike. I'm going to be very interested in knowing where this low eventually goes. Feeling good about the small westward ticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 BDL reported 3.3'' of snow Saturday night I find that hard to believe considering when I woke up to go to work Sunday AM I didn't really have to shovel anything, there couldn't have been more than 1/2'' or 3/4'' of an inch...the next highest in the PNS was Manchester with 1.9'' BDL also reported 13'' of snow in the blizzard...we got 7.5'' here. And 6.5 on Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Interesting tweet from Matt Noyes "Interesting Boston area low clouds not directly w/storm but important. Rapid blossom indicates strong instability" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 MM5 tracks it over MVY and then the Cape. You beyond 30?, can you post a qpf map. I only have to 27 on the 12Z, is that 12km? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 And 6.5 on Friday night Well that I don't think is impossible, I got 4'' here...Southington ended up with 9''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 MM5 has a nice area of low level forcing over se mass and the Cape. It looks like it tries to hang a band of snow over ern mass through aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You beyond 30?, can you post a qpf map. I only have to 27 on the 12Z, is that 12km? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You beyond 30?, can you post a qpf map. I only have to 27 on the 12Z, is that 12km? If you loop it, it goes beyond hr 27 by a few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That's just a crushing hit from the MM5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Also looks like the GFS has a MUCH weaker LLJ than the NAM does and winds are more ENE rather than from the SE which is what the NAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You beyond 30?, can you post a qpf map. I only have to 27 on the 12Z, is that 12km? Cancel that just updated, the bomb band then goes through Central Mass up through NE Mass to Maine coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 it uses the NAM for boundary conditions...that isn't that surprising. The WRF-NAM is in some respects the "MM6." As do many of the other higher res models. It's like expecting a different ending to the same movie. Bombogenesis, that tick slower you speak of is minor and inconsequential in the final scheme. One can easily make cases for either camp to be the final outcome but until Bombo starts its foolish to try to explain away either But the trajectory change probably wasn't, nor was the delay. I understand what you are saying but I'm asking you as a reasonable guy - the worst verifying model 24-48 is the NAM. Euro then GFS/UK have been very good recently. Isn't it a little foolish to just assume the NAM is right because it's a higher res model? Look at the 24-36 hour recent 500mb verifications...the Euro looks like a carbon copy it was so accurate. The other two trailed noticeably with the GFS being better. Anyway, I'm done with this until post 18z, all I'm saying is the Euro is probably still the way to go across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Cancel that just updated, the bomb band then goes through Central Mass up through NE Mass to Maine coast Ah, Baby steps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That's just a crushing hit from the MM5 I really have no idea how to read the mm5 output. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Dry slot gets up to PVD or so then collapses back southeast. Works for me Mekster's Attleborough snowhole is modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrokenASOS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Win. Easy 1-2in/hr, maybe more if that works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Pretty nice run. That big arc of lower pressure pivoting n and nw tries to save the day for ern mass in terms of dryslot. It looks like the convergence from that keeps the band going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 http://atmos.msrc.sunysb.edu/loop/12km.pcp3.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Pretty nice run. That big arc of lower pressure pivoting n and nw tries to save the day for ern mass in terms of dryslot. It looks like the convergence from that keeps the band going. I like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The American WRF which is coming out in a few hours uses the GFS boundary conditions...it will be interesting to see what that will do with the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 BDL reported 3.3'' of snow Saturday night I find that hard to believe considering when I woke up to go to work Sunday AM I didn't really have to shovel anything, there couldn't have been more than 1/2'' or 3/4'' of an inch...the next highest in the PNS was Manchester with 1.9'' BDL also reported 13'' of snow in the blizzard...we got 7.5'' here. NO WAY! I work right down the road in Bloomfield and maybe 2" and thats being liberal. Also I saw that the CTDOT had 13" for mby...I only measured 11" from Fri night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 As do many of the other higher res models. It's like expecting a different ending to the same movie. But the trajectory change probably wasn't, nor was the delay. I understand what you are saying but I'm asking you as a reasonable guy - the worst verifying model 24-48 is the NAM. Euro then GFS/UK have been very good recently. Isn't it a little foolish to just assume the NAM is right because it's a higher res model? Look at the 24-36 hour recent 500mb verifications...the Euro looks like a carbon copy it was so accurate. The other two trailed noticeably with the GFS being better. Anyway, I'm done with this until post 18z, all I'm saying is the Euro is probably still the way to go across the board. All I am saying is both camps have credibility , the MM5 fits my thinking , pretty locked in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Noyes is right, I have some oe clouds coming in from the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Holy 20 inch megabomb and the mm5 can be underdone on spatial distribution of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Noyes is right, I have some oe clouds coming in from the east. yeah i have some floating around here as well. moving n/s pretty good actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 crippling storm on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What site do you guys typically use for radar imagery? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Holy 20 inch megabomb and the mm5 can be underdone on spatial distribution of QPF AWT?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.