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The day has come, January 11-12 Snowstorm


Baroclinic Zone

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WOW! Just saw the NAM 2-2.5" for eastern 2/3 of CT. Normally I would say the NAM is just overdoing it and to go with the GFS/Euro. But I expected the NAM would start to cave overnight and instead it increased another .5" for me. And the GFS started to bump the qpf max up and shift it west. Still think the NAM is overdoing it (esp the 12z) but now I would consider taking a NAM/Euro/GFS blend. 14-20+ widespread.

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I posted the maps last night where the NAM (rgem did the same thing) at 24/36 hours when we had a mid-level in PA, jumping to the coast spun up phantom vorticity east of Jersey and delivered a blizzard to parts of SNE. They busted terribly. The GFS/Euro/UK stayed away from that, but did tick west inside of 24.

Here is the NAM from 0z last night vs the 12z today same time. Do you notice the mega vorticity the 0z was spinning off Jersey that became weaker this run and maybe sheared/nudged east a little? Look at the height lines, look how they shifted east in 1 single main run.

This is EXACTLY what it did in close last time, and kept shifting every run (mainly the 0z/12z) until it came to the other guidance. I am not saying this is a lock to happen this time, I'm just saying the overall thought I've had for 2-3 days on this model - well it's happening. How much it effects sensible weather we'll see. One more adjustment on that scale and you'll be much closer to the GFS/euro.

The RGEM/NAM hands down were the absolute worst with a similar situation just a few days ago.

EDIT I should add in terms of sensible weather this ISN'T like the other day where it's warning vs mostly a bust. This is huge snows vs GFS snows, some rain vs no rain, etc etc. But whenever I see a model go from uber vorticity and start pushing that down and later...IMO red flag. I may be wrong, but we are here to speak our minds. This was a significant shift at 500 on the NAM in a single run.

What should stick out is it's actually a smidge quicker with the main m/l but it shifted the uber vorticity slower and south while pointing the entire speedmax more east of the earlier trajectory. Just saying...what that means later I don't know but I see this same bias replaying.

Doesn't look like the NAM has any "phantom" vorticity there. It's pretty well conserved, just distributed differently from 00z to 12z. Differences are as simple as a little less digging, and thus stronger zonal flow further north, knocking heights down more over the northeast, and letting the mid level low slide further east.

Also, I don't think you can group the GFS and Euro together here. Euro is NW and notably more QPF. The GFS is alone. I think we'll see the NAM trim down the QPF, as it always does, but otherwise, I think it should verify alright

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Exactly , right now all we can do is watch, you of all people know the drill. Radar watching, WV watching, wonder if we get the wall effect. What are your thoughts on timing s to n

Gin couldnt read your response just saw the top. When people post/repost 5 foot wide images it sometimes screws up the viewing...I can only see you quoted me, mind repeating?

All I'm saying is the NAM/RGEM had an issue a few days ago with the same thing and at 12z there was a clear red flag it was at it again. It may well adjust back the other way but there's no denying the bend east at 500, and change in trajectory/vorticity. they may be 100% right this time.

My thought is we'll see a bigger shift at 18z with the american guidance with one folding in the direction of another. Happened around this time last time too.

On a broader note, per the NCEP stuff, at 48 hours it's no contest lately, the GFS kills the NAM at 500mb verification.

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The radar should start lightning up really quickly around 06z in S CT...I'll bet most of SNE is ripping by 09z. It could be one of the most impressive radars around here since 12/9/05

I don't have much memory for banding except for a few storms in the past 5 years. Would you say it would be similar to the band last year on 12/19 that set up on LI/ SE CT? The models have a huge area of 1.25+ qpf but I don't see how the band can be that big. Seems like the heaviest snowfall and banding is usually confined to a smaller area. 12/19 basically just stalled on LI/ SE CT with that band. With a track that close to the coast I'm afraid the banding will be more like over New Haven than SE CT.

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Cool ... on my hand-held but I went over to my office PC and checked ... looks like a winner. I'd even be satisfied with the lower range at this point. :lol:

Basically thats what i posted expect the lower on the 2 zones further north but higher south lower north in our area.......... :snowman:

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Gin couldnt read your response just saw the top. When people post/repost 5 foot wide images it sometimes screws up the viewing...I can only see you quoted me, mind repeating?

All I'm saying is the NAM/RGEM had an issue a few days ago with the same thing and at 12z there was a clear red flag it was at it again. It may well adjust back the other way but there's no denying the bend east at 500, and change in trajectory/vorticity. they may be 100% right this time.

My thought is we'll see a bigger shift at 18z with the american guidance with one folding in the direction of another. Happened around this time last time too.

On a broader note, per the NCEP stuff, at 48 hours it's no contest lately, the GFS kills the NAM at 500mb verification.

Bombogenesis, that tick slower you speak of is minor and inconsequential in the final scheme. One can easily make cases for either camp to be the final outcome but until Bombo starts its foolish to try to explain away either

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Doesn't look like the NAM has any "phantom" vorticity there. It's pretty well conserved, just distributed differently from 00z to 12z. Differences are as simple as a little less digging, and thus stronger zonal flow further north, knocking heights down more over the northeast, and letting the mid level low slide further east.

Also, I don't think you can group the GFS and Euro together here. Euro is NW and notably more QPF. The GFS is alone. I think we'll see the NAM trim down the QPF, as it always does, but otherwise, I think it should verify alright

I've said a bunch of times I'd ride the euro regardless of what it said at 12z. I think the NAM/RGEM have demonstrated just recently they'll be too far NW or I should say they could be too far NW. That may be totally wrong this time, but that was a decent shift at 12z and although it's not enough yet to rock the apple cart, if it continued again in the next runs you've got a solution much closer to the Euro/GFS. I understand the thought that the meso's should be better here and again they may well be, but I've not shoveled many feet of snow the NMM and ARW have delivered. I think we had all largely discarded them in SNE and up until this event they're rarely mentioned for a reason. Same goes with the MM5 although it has had its moments this year just like the ARW.

I'm kind of done making the point for now because I don't know it'll continue at 18z. If it does then we have something to talk about if the NAM is still the NW outlier. In posting the maps earlier right or wrong later, the thought was there.

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well it gives me .75 here in the manchester nh region although the 1 inch line just to my south so as of now any one know what my ratios will be 12 to 1? if so I guess I could expect 6-10" nam gives me 10-15 " ! hopefully 18z gfs comes around a little more so If I go middle of the road I would say 8-12 is a safe bet. I will take it and run!Snowman.gif

Yep, looks like BOX give you a little bit more but seems reasonable to me. GYX gives me 8-12" and that's what I was thinking too.

I am still holding out some hope for things to get NAM juicy or better up here, but that's probably wishful thinking. This is a hard call with the sharp drop in qpf heading north I think, small change could mean much more.. At least it seems like 6"+ is pretty much locked.

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Yeah I know...I work in Windsor..and there's no way they got over 9 inches of snow here over the weekend. There's about 4-5 on the ground

BDL reported 3.3'' of snow Saturday night :lol:

I find that hard to believe considering when I woke up to go to work Sunday AM I didn't really have to shovel anything, there couldn't have been more than 1/2'' or 3/4'' of an inch...the next highest in the PNS was Manchester with 1.9''

BDL also reported 13'' of snow in the blizzard...we got 7.5'' here.

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