Mr Torchey Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think its pretty dangerous to pin expectations off the nam. I like a gefs/euro combo, region wide 6-12, less west more east, with lollis to 13-17 from central ct, northern ri up to and including Boston metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Not really, GFS is a eastern Outlier, Nam Western, Euro, MM5 right down the middle i hear ya, but im always hesitant to dismiss an outlier which has been consistent. that said, my number 2 rule is that when the NAM/RGEM agree, ride'em, esp in la nina (though this is not a normal la nina). my number 1 rule is when the GFS/euro agree, ride'em. goes without saying, euro is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's not excitement, it's everything vs. the eastern outlier that is the GFS that is not nearly as equipped to handle this as the NAM as Tip has beaten into us. This sounds like you wanting the GFS solution, actually. What do you find wrong with them in the last week? They've done a very good job, actually, as opposed to much of the season before. I posted the maps last night where the NAM (rgem did the same thing) at 24/36 hours when we had a mid-level in PA, jumping to the coast spun up phantom vorticity east of Jersey and delivered a blizzard to parts of SNE. They busted terribly. The GFS/Euro/UK stayed away from that, but did tick west inside of 24. Here is the NAM from 0z last night vs the 12z today same time. Do you notice the mega vorticity the 0z was spinning off Jersey that became weaker this run and maybe sheared/nudged east a little? Look at the height lines, look how they shifted east in 1 single main run. This is EXACTLY what it did in close last time, and kept shifting every run (mainly the 0z/12z) until it came to the other guidance. I am not saying this is a lock to happen this time, I'm just saying the overall thought I've had for 2-3 days on this model - well it's happening. How much it effects sensible weather we'll see. One more adjustment on that scale and you'll be much closer to the GFS/euro. The RGEM/NAM hands down were the absolute worst with a similar situation just a few days ago. EDIT I should add in terms of sensible weather this ISN'T like the other day where it's warning vs mostly a bust. This is huge snows vs GFS snows, some rain vs no rain, etc etc. But whenever I see a model go from uber vorticity and start pushing that down and later...IMO red flag. I may be wrong, but we are here to speak our minds. This was a significant shift at 500 on the NAM in a single run. What should stick out is it's actually a smidge quicker with the main m/l but it shifted the uber vorticity slower and south while pointing the entire speedmax more east of the earlier trajectory. Just saying...what that means later I don't know but I see this same bias replaying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Think I got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You may be right but I'm asking...why is the NAM and the RGEM spinning up so much vorticity right off the Jersey coast out of the blue? Ironically at the same time they're both driving insane UVVs. If that were the GFS we'd scream feedback. Again just asking from a weather standpoint, what's causing it and did anyone notice the vorticity spin-up on this run of the NAM was a few ticks slower than last time? -- Crazy uncle ukie...goes with the GFS. Bombogenesis, that tick slower you speak of is minor and inconsequential in the final scheme. One can easily make cases for either camp to be the final outcome but until Bombo starts its foolish to try to explain away either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm leaning towards 8-12 for us. Just told a co-worker 5-8 (with emphasis on 8) and now am thinking that is too low. Around 10" seems like a good number, imo. Well now, at this point, I would be dissapointed if I only got 8. I like the 8-14 forecast. That way, if the NAM was right, it would somewhat fit in. I wonder if Gray is going to raise amounts at 3 pm... I am eagerly awaiting the Euro though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Cantore's last chance shot at being in boston for this event rests in a 5:15 AirTran out of Atlanta...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Think I got it LOL 98% of the state gets over 20 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Think I got it Yup, you done good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm leaning towards 8-12 for us. Just told a co-worker 5-8 (with emphasis on 8) and now am thinking that is too low. Around 10" seems like a good number, imo. Those are reasonable, Sent you a PM...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think its pretty dangerous to pin expectations off the nam. I like a gefs/euro combo, region wide 6-12, less west more east, with lollis to 13-17 from central ct, northern ri up to and including Boston metro. It's a widespread 12-18 inches across the state. No need to try to get cute about narrowing it down any further than that. The impact of 12 inches for most folks will be the same as 15 or 18 inches. The storm will be moving too fast, so I wouldn't go much above that. At some point you have to apply some logic even if the NAM printed out 4 inches of liquid equivalent. Some NYC stations calling for 12-20 in the city which seems a bit high in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 LOL 98% of the state gets over 20 inches I wonder what the chances are of this being a top 5 storm for the state of CT...this certainly has potential be a widespread 12''+ with perhaps close to 18'' in quite a few towns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah--the qpf is clearly more generous than the 00z run. ALY is/was riding the GFS in their a.m. AFD. Their reasoning for doing this is sound: The GFS ens have had the most consistency compared to every other models ens. spread. That does not mean it's correct of course. I do think it's something to consider when combined with Messengers comments about how poorly the NAM and RGEM did with the previous storm. Either way no model really screws anyone in SNE at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nice to see gfs tick west a bit. Like my 12-20.... It's definitely higher than what I'd usually go but this will be impressive. It's going to absolutely rip for a period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This system is really going to be amazing to watch later tonight as it begins to organize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I wonder what the chances are of this being a top 5 storm for the state of CT...this certainly has potential be a widespread 12''+ with perhaps close to 18'' in quite a few towns. Let's remember the nam is the nam. For most of ct 18" will be the exception rather than the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nice to see gfs tick west a bit. Like my 12-20.... It's definitely higher than what I'd usually go but this will be impressive. It's going to absolutely rip for a period of time. Too bad it's mostly in the wee hours though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Those are reasonable, Sent you a PM...... Cool ... on my hand-held but I went over to my office PC and checked ... looks like a winner. I'd even be satisfied with the lower range at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmj16725 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12 Z SUNY MM5 has the low at 986 mb just south of Montauk at 24 hours (12 Z Wens). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Too bad it's mostly in the wee hours though Go to bed early and set the alarm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This system is really going to be amazing to watch later tonight as it begins to organize. Exactly , right now all we can do is watch, you of all people know the drill. Radar watching, WV watching, wonder if we get the wall effect. What are your thoughts on timing s to n Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I wonder what the chances are of this being a top 5 storm for the state of CT...this certainly has potential be a widespread 12''+ with perhaps close to 18'' in quite a few towns. Probably not, but for parts of northern Fairfield and New Haven counties, they have the potential to tally 2 1/2-3 feet of snow in a span of five days. That's impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Let's remember the nam is the nam. For most of ct 18" will be the exception rather than the rule. That's a good point. When was the last time just about the entire state had over 12'' of snow? Did that happen with Feb '06? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Probably not, but for parts of northern Fairfield and New Haven counties, they have the potential to tally 2 1/2-3 feet of snow in a span of five days. That's impressive. That's more snow than I got all of last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Think I got it It cuts the snow amounts in some places because its 32.5, silly clown map when all layers are -2 and way below cept for the 30 meters at the surface, show me some bufkit numbers not the psychedelic bar charts either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Let's remember the nam is the nam. For most of ct 18" will be the exception rather than the rule. I fear the total from BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Too bad it's mostly in the wee hours though Up here it'll be largely a daylight storm. FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Still going with NAM being a tick to west prefer a blend of NAM/GFS. GFS been a little to consistant to totally ignore, CT still going to get pounded RI will get those totals up there as well. move the totals 10-20 miles east and there might be your solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Exactly , right now all we can do is watch, you of all people know the drill. Radar watching, WV watching, wonder if we get the wall effect. What are your thoughts on timing s to n The radar should start lightning up really quickly around 06z in S CT...I'll bet most of SNE is ripping by 09z. It could be one of the most impressive radars around here since 12/9/05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nice to see gfs tick west a bit. Like my 12-20.... It's definitely higher than what I'd usually go but this will be impressive. It's going to absolutely rip for a period of time. You going 12-20 statewide? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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