Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah I still like his area to near ORH and Kev for now. Gibbs does too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The fact the best lift in North of the system makes this atypical for SNE as it is s to n moving band correct? Woulndt be shocked if radar looked like 12/19/09 at the start with a very intense nwd moving band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 N. Ct/RI border perhaps? I'd say my area if the cf would make it near rt 128, but since it maybe along the immediate coast.......immediate N shore near KBEV and Foxboro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think it goes right near ACK. It destroys you. God, the NAM is like 0.5C from all snow for me verbatim. Come on, can a brother catch a break. Still dumps a foot plus but its the difference between that and 18-20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 22 yrs old --- cmon - even Jerry gets out there and shovels like a man. This is a great problem to have and a good bit of enjoyable exercise. I love shoving a massive >10" snow storm. Be happy you don't have back trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12Z GFS is running, please come northwest.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hey, Ginx. Not to be an alarmist but I can see our new Governor declaring a state of emergency with this thing. Any thoughts? I-95 will have to close for a period if we get those snowfall rates. Not saying we do, but if............................................................. If by tonight this holds serve I would ban non essential travel, but thats just me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 well if we going to get models painting 1.5+ qpf, then defintely someone can hang a 30 if a band becomes quasi-stationary the RGEM appears to be upping the qpf ante from what i saw at 6z and now 12z....with NAM in agreement less than 24 hours, thats a big signal....+ SREFs inclination defintely to think 20-30 amounts as the upper end, rather than a previous 24 max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Its early, But it looks like wagons west on the Goofus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Someone is gonna hang a 30-spot.....folks laugh, but when Rev and I shake hands, sh** happens. Noone believed us yesterday..Today tunes are changjng..weenies are popping,,and slapping like swords Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I wonder how many people are looking at the surface on the 12h GFS and worrying when in reality it's just timing again? Strange to see it keep flipping around but the starting position at h12 means nothing...deep breaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 THIS IS FOOKING SICK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z NAM bufkit at BDL has 1.8'' of QPF 1.998" at HVN (http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=CT&stn=KHVN&model=nam&time=2011011112&field=prec) just over 2" at GON. 1.944" at BDR. And of course, the 2.34" bullseye over my house on the ewall graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrokenASOS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I've seen great dendrites in 60mph winds. While they can break up in stronger winds, I don't really think that happens all that often. Where it does hurt, is how the wind can compact the snow at the surface. Duly noted. I also stumbled upon this site: http://sanders.math.uwm.edu/cgi-bin-snowratio/sr_map_main.pl during the December storm. It seems to basically average out vertical motions through each layer in the model and computes probabilities of particular snow ratios. Seemed to do very well with the December coastal, but I don't know how this algorithm has done overall. It's giving PWM High probs of 9:1 kind of stuff, which I don't really buy at this point, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Oh I'm getting destroyed, regardless......no complaints; just semantics range. I think Mike is right..the CF may set up just to my west for a few hours, but then collapse se towards 15z. Pressure falls will be enormous. The reason why I think it may penetrate a little farther inland then 12/26, is because that parent low in the OH valley will help induce a little more erly flow early on. As that low bombs, the CF should come se, but how fast is key. Banding with the mid level low placement is great for you..up to nrn orh country and towards Kevin....even through GC. It's possible the DS may get close to you on the NAM, but the bombing nature of this storm will probably prevent the DS from rocketing nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS actually more amplified early in the process vs NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 so what time is everyone getting up? at least in MA.. those that are doing to sleep/ 2-3 am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Still looks to be east of the Nam..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I got 4 inches of snow from that Norlun on .18 melted qpf... hopefully ratios are that good lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 so what time is everyone getting up? at least in MA.. those that are doing to sleep/ 2-3 am? 3:00 after an 8:00 bed time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 1.998" at HVN (http://coolwx.com/cg...1112&field=prec) just over 2" at GON. 1.944" at BDR. And of course, the 2.34" bullseye over my house on the ewall graphics I love how the NAM has been to increase totals as we get closer, not decrease! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrokenASOS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 THIS IS FOOKING SICK Are my eyes deceiving me, or is that 60 microbars/s at 11K and 12Z wed?????! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 BOW DOWN TO THE NAM. BOW DOWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think Mike is right..the CF may set up just to my west for a few hours, but then collapse se towards 15z. Pressure falls will be enormous. The reason why I think it may penetrate a little farther inland then 12/26, is because that parent low in the OH valley will help induce a little more erly flow early on. As that low bombs, the CF should come se, but how fast is key. Banding with the mid level low placement is great for you..up to nrn orh country and towards Kevin....even through GC. It's possible the DS may get close to you on the NAM, but the bombing nature of this storm will probably prevent the DS from rocketing nw. I'll take my chances on the nw end of the dryslot....I just don't like that the NAM is centering everything firther sw and curtailing the translation of higher mounts to the ne, faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS very stubborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I love how the NAM has been to increase totals as we get closer, not decrease! Still 2 runs left for that to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Very few changes from the 06z run through hr12. Whole thing is shifted east a little, but looks a little more amplified. Heights are lower on the east coast, but 850mb temps are warmer, so we should have lower pressures on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If by tonight this holds serve I would ban non essential travel, but thats just me I agree...if anything close to the NAM comes to fruition, it needs to be strongly urged for people to stay off the roads. This is not the type of storm you can just take it slow and expect to be okay...this is the type of storm where you may not be able to see the road...period. BTW...my weenie isn't showing is it? I'm kind of amped up right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 At 24 it looks to track a tick west of the BM......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I got 4 inches of snow from that Norlun on .18 melted qpf... hopefully ratios are that good lol bufkit shows probably like 13:1 to 15:1 ratios! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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