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The day has come, January 11-12 Snowstorm


Baroclinic Zone

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Hey, Ginx. Not to be an alarmist but I can see our new Governor declaring a state of emergency with this thing. Any thoughts? I-95 will have to close for a period if we get those snowfall rates. Not saying we do, but if.............................................................

If by tonight this holds serve I would ban non essential travel, but thats just me

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well if we going to get models painting 1.5+ qpf, then defintely someone can hang a 30 if a band becomes quasi-stationary

the RGEM appears to be upping the qpf ante from what i saw at 6z and now 12z....with NAM in agreement less than 24 hours, thats a big signal....+ SREFs

inclination defintely to think 20-30 amounts as the upper end, rather than a previous 24 max.

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I've seen great dendrites in 60mph winds. While they can break up in stronger winds, I don't really think that happens all that often. Where it does hurt, is how the wind can compact the snow at the surface.

Duly noted. I also stumbled upon this site: http://sanders.math.uwm.edu/cgi-bin-snowratio/sr_map_main.pl during the December storm.

It seems to basically average out vertical motions through each layer in the model and computes probabilities of particular snow ratios. Seemed to do very well with the December coastal, but I don't know how this algorithm has done overall. It's giving PWM High probs of 9:1 kind of stuff, which I don't really buy at this point, but we'll see.

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Oh I'm getting destroyed, regardless......no complaints; just semantics range.

I think Mike is right..the CF may set up just to my west for a few hours, but then collapse se towards 15z. Pressure falls will be enormous. The reason why I think it may penetrate a little farther inland then 12/26, is because that parent low in the OH valley will help induce a little more erly flow early on. As that low bombs, the CF should come se, but how fast is key. Banding with the mid level low placement is great for you..up to nrn orh country and towards Kevin....even through GC. It's possible the DS may get close to you on the NAM, but the bombing nature of this storm will probably prevent the DS from rocketing nw.

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I think Mike is right..the CF may set up just to my west for a few hours, but then collapse se towards 15z. Pressure falls will be enormous. The reason why I think it may penetrate a little farther inland then 12/26, is because that parent low in the OH valley will help induce a little more erly flow early on. As that low bombs, the CF should come se, but how fast is key. Banding with the mid level low placement is great for you..up to nrn orh country and towards Kevin....even through GC. It's possible the DS may get close to you on the NAM, but the bombing nature of this storm will probably prevent the DS from rocketing nw.

I'll take my chances on the nw end of the dryslot....I just don't like that the NAM is centering everything firther sw and curtailing the translation of higher mounts to the ne, faster.

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If by tonight this holds serve I would ban non essential travel, but thats just me

I agree...if anything close to the NAM comes to fruition, it needs to be strongly urged for people to stay off the roads. This is not the type of storm you can just take it slow and expect to be okay...this is the type of storm where you may not be able to see the road...period.

BTW...my weenie isn't showing is it? I'm kind of amped up right now

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