dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I see the NAM backed s a little from s from 006z....looks like sw of Boston jackpot wins. What did the SREFs do Slightly SE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It tracked it very close to ACK. It gave you over an inch of qpf, but half of that could be rain. I think 2-4" is the best call for here right now. It'd be a pretty quick change. RGEM is west a bit. The GFS will come west to ACK if not more. IMO the RGEM/NAM may be warmer than people think face value but it's not relevant for anyone NW of maybe a Quincy to Bob line It's hard to see on this map but the RGEM sprouted the NAM vorticity just east of NYC...which drives the bus. The jump is already well underway at this point. This is IMO total/100% support for the NAM. Only caution being these two models "supported" one another the other day multiple times too. GFS/Euro will complete the deal one way or the other I think and reduce anxiety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SREFs went a hair se, but NAM is still better for you. It really did not have a difference for your hood. Crap....I figured......I think E CT-N RI to Norwood is the goldmine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 High cirrus starting to move in here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM still my model of choice for good reasons ...covered multiple times, surrounding mesoscale feedback processes and discrete/finite thermal field analysis bearing on physics in coastal frontogen/PP/baroclinic axis. NAM superior convective handling in slantwise CSI related lift is also troubling more accurate to this meteorologist, as well. BOS FRH data: 24075999830 43309 960536 35009796 30094986713 -2008 853631 29009792 First bolded field sums to almost 1.7" liq equiv and there is more coming, but this interval achieves all that in 12 hours. At 13:1 ratio outside of I-95 that's 21" and counting in just 12 hours.. pushing extremeness undertstood. This can be done folks. This systme has some unique dynamical concerns as outlined, again ... I cannot emphasize enough that the NAM is superior in handling these types of finite scale physics. 2nd bolded column is wind: 36 kts at 900mb level is a sinch to sink down in heavier precipitation columns and dynamic mixing. That's your 6-hourly mean middle BL flow and there is your frequent gusts to 35mph at the surface. This is a blizzard folks, period. Great post! Sick winds being brought down. Blizzard for whom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Glad to see the REGM N a hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 updated now Wiz , holy crap http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/ Last time I saw a huge signal like this was in the Snow bomb Baltimore received last year and that was progressive too, potential is off the charts. Not saying I would forecast it but isolated 5-7 per hour stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Love the anticipation of a big storm. The process has begun clouding over now! they will thicken throughout the afternoon. Will be very fun to watch the evolution this afternoon around this storm to see it develop!. I know here in southern nh won't be where the heaviest lines up but hey I can not complain about a foot of snow! Enjoy this one everyone! I don't see any more storms in the future. am I wrong? hope so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 CoastalWX do you think the Carver Middleboro area is going to have mixing issues with the 12Z NAM track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Crap....I figured......I think E CT-N RI to Norwood is the goldmine. Keep in mind that oftentimes mesoscale banding sets up to the w/nw of where the models think it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Heaviest at dawn on? heaviest looks to be overnight and lingering perhaps just a bit after dawn? not saying this is gonna happen, just throwing it out there.... any concerns from any of the mets that the primary/ULL in the OV holds on a bit longer and delays things on the EC and hurts the southern areas, and even places along the SNE south coast/LI region? i dont think it happens since we already have a dual low structure, rather than a single strong primary pending transfer. from my perspective, it will be very interesting to watch the snow as it gets into Toronto and how much further north it can push, or if it doesnt really get to Toronto, compared to what the models have for Toronto.....that will be a good indicator of the OV low strength and upper level support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Messenger, the RGEM is actually s from 06z......this run has the jackpot near E LI and that one had it near Norwood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 updated now Wiz , holy crap http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/ Dude this is just EPIC! WOW N CT gets DESTROYED and then up towards Ray area...insane thundersnow with rates probably 3-5''/HR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Keep in mind that oftentimes mesoscale banding sets up to the w/nw of where the models think it will. Right, but they have it to my southwest.....where do you thk the cf sets up.....gun-to-chubby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 CoastalWX do you think the Carver Middleboro area is going to have mixing issues with the 12Z NAM track? Yes. We'll be lucky to get 2-4" if the NAM/RGEM is right. Disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Last time I saw a huge signal like this was in the Snow bomb Baltimore received last year and that was progressive too, potential is off the charts. Not saying I would forecast it but isolated 5-7 per hour stuff I think there's no doubt about it...but visibilities will be near zero for a period around the pre-dawn hours in spots in CT. True white-out conditions incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Keep in mind that oftentimes mesoscale banding sets up to the w/nw of where the models think it will. Yeah I still like his area to near ORH and Kev for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hey, Ginx. Not to be an alarmist but I can see our new Governor declaring a state of emergency with this thing. Any thoughts? I-95 will have to close for a period if we get those snowfall rates. Not saying we do, but if............................................................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z NAM bufkit at BDL has 1.8'' of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Someone is gonna hang a 30-spot.....folks laugh, but when Rev and I shake hands, sh** happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 CoastalWX do you think the Carver Middleboro area is going to have mixing issues with the 12Z NAM track? Yeah they would mix and dryslot. The dryslot gets to BOS area on the NAM, but it may be brief near BOS. If it's more towards ACK, that would be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 CSI not impressive here but fronto literally rots over my head with a megaband on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Messenger, the RGEM is actually s from 06z......this run has the jackpot near E LI and that one had it near Norwood. I think it goes right near ACK. It destroys you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Keep in mind that oftentimes mesoscale banding sets up to the w/nw of where the models think it will. The fact the best lift in North of the system makes this atypical for SNE as it is s to n moving band correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Keep in mind that oftentimes mesoscale banding sets up to the w/nw of where the models think it will. Hi! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Right, but they have it to my southwest.....where do you thk the cf sets up.....gun-to-chubby You and your coastal front, lol. I think it may sit over jerrys house for an hr or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hey, Ginx. Not to be an alarmist but I can see our new Governor declaring a state of emergency with this thing. Any thoughts? I-95 will have to close for a period if we get those snowfall rates. Not saying we do, but if............................................................. I wouldn't be surprised. I honestly think somewhere in the state gets absolutely dumped on to the point of paralysis sometime pre-dawn. Just a question of where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Someone is gonna hang a 30-spot.....folks laugh, but when Rev and I shake hands, sh** happens. N. Ct/RI border perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think it goes right near ACK. It destroys you. Oh I'm getting destroyed, regardless......no complaints; just semantics range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Messenger, the RGEM is actually s from 06z......this run has the jackpot near E LI and that one had it near Norwood. Ok never looked at the 6z was comparing the 12z because there's no easy way (unless there's another site) to compare the off hour due to the 12 hour windows. I'd still ride the Euro over these two, I know Tip disagrees and the euro will probably drift west but I'm betting these are the most west solutions and we see the general shift back to putting the jackpot in SNE from Jerry to Bob to Kev to Will (and extended obviously NW/SE up to you. If the NAM/RGEM are right people will be measuring in feet not inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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