hooralph Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS 30 minutes. The GFS will play the role of Barbara Hershey in Hoosiers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Very cold this morning here. Horrible migraine to add. Feeling horrible. Must be a big one coming. I think we do better then 6-12", or someone around us outperforms that. Our ratios should be pretty outstanding and we are in the prime band zone. However, we have already discussed that plenty. Big nowcast event for us. P.S. My first official visit being taken this weekend. Orono, UMaine Black Bear Football. Nice, I think we will do ok with this storm, It may even hold some surprises, Being that it going to be amped up that usually favors people that are further north and west, We shall see over the next 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrokenASOS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS 30 minutes. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Movie gets better with age i tell ya. Way OT, but consistent with the posts.....Ivan Reitman just approved the screenplay for GB III. Clouds streaming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS will probably nudge west a little, I would think. It's pretty far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yep ride the euro. Not much time this morning haven't really looked at anything will check back in after lunch. Amazing dynamic processes on the NAM. It's initially a little less robust, not tearing a hole in the atmosphere off NJ like it did earlier which makes it more believable in terms of outcome. But time to watch the rest. I really think thats the way to go qpf wise as well, It seemed reasonable..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Way OT, but consistent with the posts.....Ivan Reitman just approved the screenplay for GB III. Clouds streaming in. About damn time! (for both GB III and the clouds streaming in. I can't wait for this storm to start.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Almost time for the GFS to hold serve. Actually, it has to budge at this point in light of all other guidance. I say it moves the low to a position 20 Miles SE of Nantucket. I don't think it holds serve. BUT the NAM did shove the vorticity east a smidge and was a step weaker/slower. It had no real effect at the surface yet but I "think" based on a very limited look this might be the tick east beginning to the other guidance. Listen for most it's pointless it's going to be what it is which is a widespread 6-12/8-16 with spot higher amounts. Where it matters is well NW and down here...so for most...who cares either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That might not be that far off in the end. SREF runs have pumped out between 0.7 and just shy of 1" for the past day and a half with most of the members in line, NAM just about the same, GEM and RGEM definitely trending back west, etc etc. I think even if we don't get the 1" of QPF (okay maybe that is a bit high), looks like we'll be getting some awesome snow-growth Wednesday afternoon. The map below is from last night's NAM run, but we've got 12-20 microbar/s vvs moving through the dendritic layer at 18Z and swinging through the Midcoast. I wasn't that excited about this thing two days ago, but things are definitely looking good for a respectable 8-12 inches IMHO. With good ratios, that's what I am expecting at this time. Still a chance for a little more, but am not pushing it. I'll be happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Craig Allen just said on 880 NYC, 20 plus inches from New haven CT River East. Fairfield County 15-20 Nice! What'd he say for the big apple? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS will probably nudge west a little, I would think. It's pretty far east. It's the GFS, it won't budge To think I go "aw" when I read calls for "only" 15-20 here. I love it. What are the odds we would have a chance to beat the blizzard snowfall just over 2 weeks later? 1 in 100,000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Don't want to hear about dry slot problems in my neck of the woods this time around. Dude the dryslot is east of us and even with that we are in the goods on basically every model, west or east, who the heck cares if we jackpot, non issue really for anyone West of CC East of the Hudson. Anybody who moans in SNE should be b**ch slapped and put on a five day diet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS will probably nudge west a little, I would think. It's pretty far east. What did the euro do to me down here Scott? I'm puckering the cheeks right now. I really think thats the way to go qpf wise as well, It seemed reasonable..... Agreed. Only because it's been stable not because I think it's going to be 100% right which is normal....this will be a nowcast, dry slots, etc. I think Scott is right the GFS is coming west. The NAM did shift the vorticity east but just barely. It's going to likely keep doing that but again it's an outlier so we shouldnt be surprised. What's the difference anyway, 6-12/8-16 versus 12-20...now it's just greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrokenASOS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I don't think it holds serve. BUT the NAM did shove the vorticity east a smidge and was a step weaker/slower. It had no real effect at the surface yet but I "think" based on a very limited look this might be the tick east beginning to the other guidance. Listen for most it's pointless it's going to be what it is which is a widespread 6-12/8-16 with spot higher amounts. Where it matters is well NW and down here...so for most...who cares either way. Any tick east would be magnified for the Mainers..just as we've been worried about..since the low never really turns northward after ACK, but instead just drifts NE. Either way, I think we can still bet on a good thumping up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the other part is i`d like to be following the board at the height and seeing all the reports from CT (i used to live there), but not at those hours lol somewhat disappointing as a former resident. im sure you guys will be pulling an all-nighter though, Heaviest at dawn on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I could care less what the GFS does..Whether it comes east or west hundreds of miles doesn't matter.It's still crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS will probably nudge west a little, I would think. It's pretty far east. At this point i think it has to cave in, Every other guidance for the most part is west of it...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nice! What'd he say for the big apple? 12-20" generally for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ? I'm not expecting the GFS to cave to the NAM if that's what you're asking. I figure it might shift slightly west to come in line with Doc. Seems a safe assumption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 About how long after the NAM finishes does this page update? http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/t12z/depth.html 30 mins to an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM still my model of choice for good reasons ...covered multiple times, surrounding mesoscale feedback processes and discrete/finite thermal field analysis bearing on physics in coastal frontogen/PP/baroclinic axis. NAM superior convective handling in slantwise CSI related lift is also troubling more accurate to this meteorologist, as well. BOS FRH data: 24075999830 43309 960536 35009796 30094986713 -2008 853631 29009792 First bolded field sums to almost 1.7" liq equiv and there is more coming, but this interval achieves all that in 12 hours. At 13:1 ratio outside of I-95 that's 21" and counting in just 12 hours.. pushing extremeness undertstood. This can be done folks. This systme has some unique dynamical concerns as outlined, again ... I cannot emphasize enough that the NAM is superior in handling these types of finite scale physics. 2nd bolded column is wind: 36 kts at 900mb level is a sinch to sink down in heavier precipitation columns and dynamic mixing. That's your 6-hourly mean middle BL flow and there is your frequent gusts to 35mph at the surface. This is a blizzard folks, period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrokenASOS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 With good ratios, that's what I am expecting at this time. Still a chance for a little more, but am not pushing it. I'll be happy! Yeah, one thing I have noticed, and my profs have talked about this a few times, are the screaming low level winds. While we're getting great snow-growth at say 700 to 750mb, those strong winds shatter the delicate dendrites and that tends to lower snow ratios. Still, the vertical velocities and temps through the cloud layers would still support an average of about 11-13:1 throughout the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What did the euro do to me down here Scott? I'm puckering the cheeks right now. Agreed. Only because it's been stable not because I think it's going to be 100% right which is normal....this will be a nowcast, dry slots, etc. I think Scott is right the GFS is coming west. The NAM did shift the vorticity east but just barely. It's going to likely keep doing that but again it's an outlier so we shouldnt be surprised. What's the difference anyway, 6-12/8-16 versus 12-20...now it's just greedy. It tracked it very close to ACK. It gave you over an inch of qpf, but half of that could be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrokenASOS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm not expecting the GFS to cave to the NAM if that's what you're asking. I figure it might shift slightly west to come in line with Doc. Seems a safe assumption. I'm waiting for it to not phase at all, and shove the low over, say 40N, 65W. haha joking. Hopefully, we like what we see this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 30 mins to an hour Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I see the NAM backed s a little from s from 006z....looks like sw of Boston jackpot wins. What did the SREFs do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 30 mins to an hour updated now Wiz , holy crap http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah, one thing I have noticed, and my profs have talked about this a few times, are the screaming low level winds. While we're getting great snow-growth at say 700 to 750mb, those strong winds shatter the delicate dendrites and that tends to lower snow ratios. Still, the vertical velocities and temps through the cloud layers would still support an average of about 11-13:1 throughout the storm. I've seen great dendrites in 60mph winds. While they can break up in stronger winds, I don't really think that happens all that often. Where it does hurt, is how the wind can compact the snow at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm waiting for it to not phase at all, and shove the low over, say 40N, 65W. haha joking. Hopefully, we like what we see this time around. I like the fact that is trys for a later phase, Would help here if it pops over our area, Buts its a moot point if it stays east anyways........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I see the NAM backed s a little from s from 006z....looks like sw of Boston jackpot wins. What did the SREFs do SREFs went a hair se, but NAM is still better for you. It really did not have a difference for your hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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