Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Warnings up everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Ratios out this way look to be 15:1 or better. Going to be some nice skiing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It'll snow in the north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I wonder how many posts have been dedicated to this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 <br>To be fair, the NAM has gone all over the place within a 50 miles envelope with no run to run consistency other than to say this low will be closer in than originally thought which appears to be a win for it.<br><br> <br><br>... with huge implications even further south: for example, philly went from a 3-6 event to a 10-14 event comparing the 0z to 6z ETA... that is a drastic shift in 6hr models within the <30 hr timeframe... the ETA is either on to a major coup over the EURO/RGEM/SREF consensus, or it's on some crack with the amplification. hence my question on generalities for which models are most accurate in <48 hr timeframe (ETA, EURO, MM5, SREFs, RGEM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Ratios out this way look to be 15:1 or better. Going to be some nice skiing. This should get the Berks back in business thankfully. I think I'll just ski down the hill up the street. Actually at the height of the 12/26 storm kids were snowboarding down one of the streets on a huge hill. Kind of nuts but no cars were going anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 <br><br> ... with huge implications even further south: for example, philly went from a 3-6 event to a 10-14 event comparing the 0z to 6z ETA... that is a drastic shift in 6hr models within the <30 hr timeframe... the ETA is either on to a major coup over the EURO/RGEM/SREF consensus, or it's on some crack with the amplification. hence my question on generalities for which models are most accurate in <48 hr timeframe (ETA, EURO, MM5, SREFs, RGEM) I think the answer regardless of lead time is Euro based on what I've read here over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think the answer regardless of lead time is Euro based on what I've read here over the years. Whatz the consensus up here, tossing the GFS completely or giving it some creedance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This should get the Berks back in business thankfully. I think I'll just ski down the hill up the street. Actually at the height of the 12/26 storm kids were snowboarding down one of the streets on a huge hill. Kind of nuts but no cars were going anywhere. I'll spend most of the afternoon battening down the hatches at the 2k site. Chesterfield's highway department must have gotten the news as they are pushing the snowbanks back already. Always a good sign. Better than when they use the front end loader to cut run-off channels when a thaw/rainstorm is coming in.lol Ok, have fun all. Big Winter incoming, BIG BIG WINTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think the answer regardless of lead time is Euro based on what I've read here over the years. I hope that's right... ETA is threatening the potential for the top 1st or 2nd storm Boston metro sees this year... we shall see, perhaps as soon as 12Z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like an TOL-ORH-Near Ray jackpot for now. ORH maybe the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I hope that's right... ETA is threatening the potential for the top 1st or 2nd storm Boston metro sees this year... we shall see, perhaps as soon as 12Z! interestingly, doesn't seem like upstream offices for PHL or ACY have given 6z ETA much credence... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Does the Americanwx WRF model run only 0z/12z or does it do 6z/18z as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I tell you what, I think ALY is reallybeing bold in not at lesat having a watch up for the zones around the CD. You've got this really dynamic system with most models showing warning criteria just to the east of the district. Then, you have the 06 NAM which has come in wiht .5 well west of ALY and nearly to Plattsburgh. Sure, might not verify, but having a watch up would seem to be prudent. I guess since they've indicated they like the gfs, they don't see the need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS ens mean went east a bit it looks like but still def west of the OP run...but that east tick might be some evidence that these occasional Buzzards Bay tracks are too amped up. It could also mean nothing...the areas it really affects are SE MA...won't make a big difference for a good chunk of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like an TOL-ORH-Near Ray jackpot for now. ORH maybe the sweet spot. scooter, you have the euro going over ACK on your products or inside of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It'll snow in the north as well. Did ya think GYX discussion was odd? They are saying the storm will come up to near the Cape so they must not be buying the GFS track, but their snow totals were 6-10 for CON and 812 or extreme se nh. They are basically giving us the GFS qpf output while buying the euro track. Maybe just being conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like an TOL-ORH-Near Ray jackpot for now. ORH maybe the sweet spot. Amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I hope that's right... ETA is threatening the potential for the top 1st or 2nd storm Boston metro sees this year... we shall see, perhaps as soon as 12Z! Ehh...even 6Z NAM gives Boston metro a big dump but a dry slot at the height is probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This should get the Berks back in business thankfully. I think I'll just ski down the hill up the street. Actually at the height of the 12/26 storm kids were snowboarding down one of the streets on a huge hill. Kind of nuts but no cars were going anywhere. I dont' know ETA short range verification but I know you cut the qpf by a 1/3 in coastals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 scooter, you have the euro going over ACK on your products or inside of it? I'm not at work, but it looks like maybe near ACK or ACK sound?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS ens mean went east a bit it looks like but still def west of the OP run...but that east tick might be some evidence that these occasional Buzzards Bay tracks are too amped up. It could also mean nothing...the areas it really affects are SE MA...won't make a big difference for a good chunk of SNE. no kidding. its crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm not at work, but it looks like maybe near ACK or ACK sound?? cool thx. the only confidence i have for my area is that i don't have much confidence in how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well boys I'm ready to chuck 'em.... 12"-20" statewide. The Euro's track sold me on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Cold start here 4/0. Time to get outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well boys I'm ready to chuck 'em.... 12"-20" statewide. The Euro's track sold me on it. This should make Kevin happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Does someone mind doing a quick summary of the overnight models to get things going? Curious about NE VT in particular. I would go back and go through the threads but I must head out the door in a couple of minutes. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 cool thx. the only confidence i have for my area is that i don't have much confidence in how this plays out. Even for BOS it could be 10" then dryslot or 18". We are right on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well boys I'm ready to chuck 'em.... 12"-20" statewide. The Euro's track sold me on it. CT looks to be in a great spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomWH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Doesn't the NAM over do amounts esp with these types of systems. Seems I have seen someone post on this in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.