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BUFKIT NAM, SREF AND GFS listing of Snow Totals for New England (and Ney York and New Jersey)

Confuzzled

By Confuzzled,
in New England

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Confuzzled

Confuzzled

Posted
Posted

4 bufkit methods for snow ratios are listed and given in the order of 1) Nam, 2) SREF, 3) GFS.

CT looks to have some slamming omega values colocated with the the dendritic growth zone...

New Jersey

NAM SREF GFS

KRUT

Max Temp in Profile 7 NA 5

Zone Omega 15 NA 8

Surface Temp 6 NA 4

10:1 Ratio 5 NA 4

KACY

Max Temp in Profile 7 <1 <1

Zone Omega 8 <1 <1

Surface Temp 7 <1 <1

10:1 Ratio 7 <1 <1

New York

NAM SREF GFS

KALB

Max Temp in Profile 11 14 4

Zone Omega 11 15 3

Surface Temp 9 12 4

10:1 Ratio 6 8 2

KPOU

Max Temp in Profile 10 18 6

Zone Omega 12 21 7

Surface Temp 10 18 6

10:1 Ratio 7 12 4

Connecticut

NAM SREF GFS

KHFD

Max Temp in Profile 18 NA 8

Zone Omega 39 NA 7

Surface Temp 17 NA 8

10:1 Ratio 14 NA 5

KIJD

Max Temp in Profile 17 NA 8

Zone Omega 24 NA 9

Surface Temp 16 NA 9

10:1 Ratio 14 NA 6

KBDL

Max Temp in Profile 18 18 7

Zone Omega 36 30 5

Surface Temp 17 18 7

10:1 Ratio 14 13 5

KCAN

Max Temp in Profile 17 NA 9

Zone Omega 23 NA 5

Surface Temp 15 NA 9

10:1 Ratio 10 NA 4

KHVN

Max Temp in Profile 17 17 8

Zone Omega 38 30 10

Surface Temp 14 17 8

10:1 Ratio 13 13 6

WTBY

Max Temp in Profile 17.8 NA NA

Zone Omega 32.5 NA NA

Surface Temp 19 NA NA

10:1 Ratio 12.7 NA NA

KGON

Max Temp in Profile 17 12 7

Zone Omega 18 11 13

Surface Temp 16 10 7

10:1 Ratio 16 10 7

KBDR

Max Temp in Profile 16 18 8

Zone Omega 32 32 9

Surface Temp 13 19 7

10:1 Ratio 12 13 6

Rhode Island

NAM SREF GFS

KPVD (Sref shows mixing)

Max Temp in Profile 15 5 8

Zone Omega 14 6 13

Surface Temp 14 5 8

10:1 Ratio 14 5 7

Long Island

NAM SREF GFS

KOKX

Max Temp in Profile 17 9 7

Zone Omega 32 11 12

Surface Temp 16 8 6

10:1 Ratio 16 8 6

Massachusetts

NAM SREF GFS

KBOS (SREF Has RAIN)

Max Temp in Profile 17 2 8

Zone Omega 17 3 12

Surface Temp 16 2 8

10:1 Ratio 16 2 6

KHYA (SREF SHOWS RAIN/ GFS has some IP)

Max Temp in Profile 5 Low 2

Zone Omega 9 Low 11

Surface Temp 4 Low 2

10:1 Ratio 7 Low 28

KORH

Max Temp in Profile 19 17 NA

Zone Omega 24 20 NA

Surface Temp 20 17 NA

10:1 Ratio 13 12 NA

New Hampshire

NAM SREF GFS

KMHT

Max Temp in Profile 14 15 9

Zone Omega 20 23 10

Surface Temp 15 15 8

10:1 Ratio 10 11 5

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Confuzzled

Confuzzled

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The zone omega stuff is inflated. It's a tool...you can't take those snow estimates literally.

Usually overdone. I listed all four options in case anyone was interested in a wide spread of data without having to grab the profiles and look at them all individually. I never said to accept it at face value, however.

The zone omega stuff can be usefull in the right conditions but I wouldn't take it verbatim. I don't see Hartford getting 40" of snow. :arrowhead:

From what I gather of it there might be good lift throughout CT (and elsewhere) and it will be colocated in many places with a saturated zone of high RH, favorable to stellar dendrites (-12-18c zone). Snow ratios should be significantly greater than 10:1. Of course, as noted, it does not account for compaction, wind and assumes that the model input it correct. Bufkit is just a software that analyzes data. Garbage in garbage out is the motto (GIGO).

its just an attempt at using a bit of cloud microphysics to more accurately forecast snow totals. But it is far from infallible.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Usually overdone. I listed all four options in case anyone was interested in a wide spread of data without having to grab the profiles and look at them all individually. I never said to accept it at face value, however.

The zone omega stuff can be usefull in the right conditions but I wouldn't take it verbatim. I don't see Hartford getting 40" of snow. :arrowhead:

From what I gather of it there might be good lift throughout CT (and elsewhere) and it will be colocated in many places with a saturated zone of high RH, favorable to stellar dendrites (-12-18c zone). Snow ratios should be significantly greater than 10:1. Of course, as noted, it does not account for compaction, wind and assumes that the model input it correct. Bufkit is just a software that analyzes data. Garbage in garbage out is the motto (GIGO).

its just an attempt at using a bit of cloud microphysics to more accurately forecast snow totals. But it is far from infallible.

It estimates hourly snowfall and the last I checked it didn't account for compaction with time. For the DC storms last year it was estimating 40-50" when the cities were only getting around 20". You always have to slash and gash that number.
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Confuzzled

Confuzzled

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It estimates hourly snowfall and the last I checked it didn't account for compaction with time. For the DC storms last year it was estimating 40-50" when the cities were only getting around 20". You always have to slash and gash that number.

Bufkit 10 might have added that or it could be something else. There is a snow accumulation line in the overview panel and it goes up and down with time showing the snowfall. When you select and drag over the precip now in the overview panel to see how much has fallen the value can drop with time even though additional snow is falling. I don't know to what level they fully accounted for this but that wasn't in the older models to the best of my memory. But this hasn't reduced the zone omega values so you are probaby correct in it being in error.

I have found it to be over done as well. I don't think cutting it in half is a bad idea but I would prefer to estimate qpf for my region and just utilize it as one tool in formulating a snow ratio. I think ratios in this storm will be around 15:1 for a lot of CT because of the cold profile, full saturation, and lift which appear colocated with a stellar dendrite zone. The wind keeps me from thinking of going any higher than that. I am sure there are other techniques but they are probably too advanced for me.

Also, I thought you were supposed to measure precip every 6 hours and wipe the board anyways to avoid compaction? Isn't that how they train spotters?

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