Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I posted this in a couple of other threads, but thought I'd post it here too given it could potentially be a climate change issue. I'm not saying it is, but would be interested in hearing some feedback from people. I have noticed that, during the second half of the last decade, January mean temperatures warmed considerably, with the notable exception of January 2009. Take a look at the list. The temperature to the right is the mean temperature for the month: January 2001: -9.4C January 2002: -4.9C January 2003: -13.5C January 2004: -15.7C January 2005: -11.7C Now take a look at the second half of the decade: January 2006: -5.7C January 2007: -7.7C January 2008: -6.3C January 2009: -13.6C January 2010: -7.5C Quite the significant rise in mean temperature, a pattern which seems to be continuing into the new decade, despite the two cold winters in the US south and mid atlantic. The northern latitudes seem to be warming considerably in January, the coldest month of the year. For interest's sake, I decided to look at the 1990s decade, supposedly remembered for its warm winters. January 1990: -4.6C January 1991: -10.6C January 1992: -11.6C January 1993: -9.2C January 1994: -18.0C (!) January 1995: -7.0C January 1996: -11.7C January 1997: -11.8C January 1998: -7.9C January 1999: -10.2C January 2000: -10.2C It would appear that Januaries in the 1990s were significantly colder than the late 2000s in Ottawa. Finally, let's look at the 1980s: January 1980: -9.2C January 1981: -14.5C January 1982: -15.9C January 1983: -8.6C January 1984: -12.7C January 1985: -13.5C January 1986: -9.8C January 1987: -9.1C January 1988: -9.1C January 1989: -7.9C The 1980s were significantly colder in January than the late 2000s. In the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s, it was noteworthy if Ottawa had a January with a mean temperature warmer than -9.0C. Now it seems to be the other way around. The trend seems to be continuing this Jnauary, with bitter cold air seemingly unable to make it into this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelvin Wave Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I've transformed your data into chart form for everyone's visualization convenience. There is indeed a slight upward trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 I've transformed your data into chart form for everyone's visualization convenience. There is indeed a slight upward trend. Thanks for the graph. It will be interesting to see if this is a permanent trend. Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Does the bitter cold come in Feb? Interesting either way. Thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Does the bitter cold come in Feb? Interesting either way. Thanks for sharing. Interesting point. Obviously I was only looking at January temperatures. From what I can gather, December temperatures have not warmed as much. In fact, there was a stretch of rather mild Decembers in the 80s. I'm not sure about February. I'll have to look into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Regional Warming? When there is Regional Cooling, don't the AGW lovers call it "weather, not climate?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherRusty Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Regional Warming? When there is Regional Cooling, don't the AGW lovers call it "weather, not climate?" No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelvin Wave Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 AGW has to do with the entire Earth - there will be regional differences and some places are bound to cool off as others warm. Anyone who thinks that AGW implies that every single place on the globe will warm is sadly mistaken and misunderstands some of the fundamentals of climate change theory. Interesting point. Obviously I was only looking at January temperatures. From what I can gather, December temperatures have not warmed as much. In fact, there was a stretch of rather mild Decembers in the 80s. I'm not sure about February. I'll have to look into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherRusty Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 AGW has to do with the entire Earth - there will be regional differences and some places are bound to cool off as others warm. Anyone who thinks that AGW implies that every single place on the globe will warm is sadly mistaken and misunderstands some of the fundamentals of climate change theory. People who know very well the meaning of variability about a mean value, nonetheless claim that variability to cast doubt on climate change in general and trend rates in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelvin Wave Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Tis true. Many don't understand that trends can be separated out of data and analyzed independently of variability around a mean. The natural climate fluctuations that people often talk about, as being the real answer to "global warming" can and do occur - but that doesn't mean that there aren't other trends (AGW) superimposed onto the natural cycle. People who know very well the meaning of variability about a mean value, nonetheless claim that variability to cast doubt on climate change in general and trend rates in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.