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January 9th-11th Winter Storm Obs Thread


Powerball

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GRR is more bullish while DTX is conservative. Maybe because the pivot is going to set up further west? Maybe they feel the transfer will limit moisture this far east? Or maybe the GRR guys are snow fans and the DTX guys have to drive 2 hours to work everyday and forecast what they want to happen.

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  On 1/11/2011 at 2:48 PM, Powerball said:

The models were apparently a bit too dry.

90% mid-level humdiity values are getting up into Michigan (which wasn't forecasted by any model). That probably explains why the air seems to be saturating a bit quicker than forecasted.

Yea currently 90 % here and only 70-80 further south and west. Seems like the humidities are higher further east. Hopoefully a fun day after a month hiatus here in Michigan.

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  On 1/11/2011 at 2:26 PM, buckeye said:

I would say right now the biggest monkey wrench for us would be what happens with that dryslot in n.central KY, where it pivots, how far north it comes and if it grows in coverage. But you're right about the area behind it having to swing thru anyways I guess.

That dryslot looks like it is heading right for us.

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  On 1/11/2011 at 3:40 PM, hawkeye_wx said:

There is a large hole over east-central Iowa where only 1.5-2.0 inches has fallen. Snow has moved back in from the east on radar, but it is extremely light. It would take several hours just to get another half inch. Central to southeast Iowa got their snow, but it's a definite disappointment around here.

Yeah this system is pretty lame for our areas. Models had the screw zone from eastern Iowa into northwest Illinois pegged 3 days ago. I was hoping we'd get lucky and make it up to 3", but I don't see that happening.

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  On 1/11/2011 at 3:44 PM, Alek said:

yesterday's 18z NAM FTW?

Visibility down near or .25 or so with 25 dbz returns and fog.

Yeah, I don't know. :lol:

Steady as she goes here, have to be over 2" now. Curious to see what LAF has, as the visibilities have been 0.5mi (a couple 0.2mi obs too) or lower for the past hour and a half. Probably another premature bust call by me. :arrowhead:

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  On 1/11/2011 at 3:50 PM, Chicago WX said:

Yeah, I don't know. :lol:

Steady as she goes here, have to be over 2" now. Curious to see what LAF has, as the visibilities have been 0.5mi (a couple 0.2mi obs too) or lower for the past hour and a half. Probably another premature bust call by me. :arrowhead:

Nice, I'd have to go outside to get an estimate, but going by visiblity alone, i imagine we're over 2" as well with a nice 20-25dbz lake enhanced band overhead.

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  On 1/11/2011 at 3:50 PM, Chicago WX said:

Yeah, I don't know. :lol:

Steady as she goes here, have to be over 2" now. Curious to see what LAF has, as the visibilities have been 0.5mi (a couple 0.2mi obs too) or lower for the past hour and a half. Probably another premature bust call by me. :arrowhead:

I'm glad things have turned around vs. a couple of hours ago. Puts me at ease.

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