buckeye Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 congrats on the rapid saturation per radar returns, you look pretty golden. I'm trying to figure out how we get screwed. Right now if i had to choose a scenario, it would be this thing taking a hard left turn north as it's heading thru ky....although that might be more of a screwjob for those east of cmh at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 FWIW, I'm already seeing flurries, so the air's saturated here, probably thanks to the flow off the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 LAF going to go bust with this one. This thing is developing too late/too far east for anything appreciable. Good for southern/central IN and OH though. Also the dry punch that is just southwest in IL, should effectively shut this thing down soon for LAF. No biggie though, we were long overdue for a stinker. That dry punch looks just east of the developing 700/850 low which should organize throughout the day after losing some punch over night, we knew there would be a screw zone in between yesterday. I'm actually feeling pretty good about 3" chances up here as things come together. I like the overlapped area for best chances of 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That dry punch looks just east of the developing 700/850 low which should organize throughout the day after losing some punch over night, we knew there would be a screw zone in between yesterday. I'm actually feeling pretty good about 3" chances up here as things come together. I like the overlapped area for best chances of 6"+ Your outlined areas look good. LOT's radar starting to spruce up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah, I was expecting to see the best returns a good hundred miles further north on the national composite. Implications aren't good here either. 12z NAM came in a fair bit further south with the northern extent of its QPF field, and even it looks like it's still too far north. lol dont worry its coming. We go through this every system on the boards. People want to take models verbatum 7-10+ days out, then when the storm is HAPPENING, panic mode sets in for some reason, with thinking that the models during nowcast time are wrong (even though that is when they actually do decent). Still feeling quite good about this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Your outlined areas look good. LOT's radar starting to spruce up. Low end moderate snow continues here on the lakefront, snow globe style, lots of tiny flakes, little wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Snowing hard here, visibility under a half of a mile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm trying to figure out how we get screwed. Right now if i had to choose a scenario, it would be this thing taking a hard left turn north as it's heading thru ky....although that might be more of a screwjob for those east of cmh at this point. I don't see how you get screwed at all....that band of snow down into western Kentucky is not depicted at all on the NAM....even if areas in western PA and eastern OH get dry slotted, that band should pivot into the area rather quickly after the dry slot...just my two cents. Again, you in Columbus...I think that you are going to see a solid 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Low end moderate snow continues here on the lakefront, snow globe style, lots of tiny flakes, little wind. Mod snow here in Kankakee, though flake size isn't overwhelming. I'll be curious to hear everyone's obs on flake size as we go through the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Mod snow here in Kankakee, though flake size isn't overwhelming. I'll be curious to hear everyone's obs on flake size as we go through the day. Looking at the national radar, the returns are really starting to take on a more organized and classic comma look. I think we see flake size trend up within the next few hours as a little lake moisture gets pulled in and the 700 mb low organizes, but i doubt we see the big fluffy dendrites up this way, just not enought moisture getting pulled back this far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 lol dont worry its coming. We go through this every system on the boards. People want to take models verbatum 7-10+ days out, then when the storm is HAPPENING, panic mode sets in for some reason, with thinking that the models during nowcast time are wrong (even though that is when they actually do decent). Still feeling quite good about this event. Latest RUC has a 0.25" bullseye over you, and a widespread 0.20" - 0.25" from I-696 south along the I-75 Corridor and the eastside through Toledo. It's actually hinting at banding, as those numbers taper off to the west & east of that corridor. All of this is only through 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 LAF getting a little love right now. Get while the gettin's good. Lafayette, Indiana (Airport) Updated: 12 min 47 sec ago 25 °F Snow Freezing Fog Windchill: 20 °F Humidity: 86% Dew Point: 21 °F Wind: 4 mph from the East Pressure: 30.08 in (Falling) Visibility: 0.2 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I don't see how you get screwed at all....that band of snow down into western Kentucky is not depicted at all on the NAM....even if areas in western PA and eastern OH get dry slotted, that band should pivot into the area rather quickly after the dry slot...just my two cents. Again, you in Columbus...I think that you are going to see a solid 6 inches. I would say right now the biggest monkey wrench for us would be what happens with that dryslot in n.central KY, where it pivots, how far north it comes and if it grows in coverage. But you're right about the area behind it having to swing thru anyways I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I got light snow here in Sterling Heights, MI tells me that the atmosphere has no problem saturating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 FWIW, I'm already seeing flurries, so the air's saturated here, probably thanks to the flow off the water. DTX JUDGING FROM THE SUITE OF OBSERVATIONS AT PRESS TIME, THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ABOUT ON TRACK WITH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW REACHING THE GROUND TO OUR WEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT THE LAYER OF DRY AIR OVER SE MICHIGAN QUITE NICELY COMPARED TO THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING. ALL OF THIS ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE ONSET TIMING BY NOON NEAR THE OHIO BORDER TO EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN THUMB Its flurrying here in macomb county arleady too, very surprised. Not good to see the green returns down in ohio fading away but I feel confident in a 3-5 forecast. Probably more from 696 south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 LOL at the DC mid atlantic thread....complete suicide mode over there...even the admins are joining in on the complaining! Just curious what all you guys think...does the 12z NAM look too far north too you? Too me, the southern precip extent looks like it is about 50 miles too far north on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 returns have only increased since then and lol @ me for just noticing i was under a headline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Snowing steadily now in West Jeff(20 miles west of Columbus). Maybe 1/4 to 1/2 inch of snow on my car. The radar looks really good for us right now, but like Buckeye, until the snow is all on the ground I am wondering 'how are we going to get screwed this time' lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looking at the national radar, the returns are really starting to take on a more organized and classic comma look. I think we see flake size trend up within the next few hours as a little lake moisture gets pulled in and the 700 mb low organizes, but i doubt we see the big fluffy dendrites up this way, just not enought moisture getting pulled back this far. Bigger dendrites here now. But yeah overall, I agree. What are you thinking for your hood, 2-4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I would say right now the biggest monkey wrench for us would be what happens with that dryslot in n.central KY, where it pivots, how far north it comes and if it grows in coverage. But you're right about the area behind it having to swing thru anyways I guess. We will see... I think that you are safe regardless...I don't see that dry slot getting into CMH...me however, I'm concernced. I could honestly see Pitt getting dry slotted, then Butler, which is about 30 miles north, stay under coverage the whole time...it has happened before, and I remember very few storms here I didn't get dryslotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 I would say right now the biggest monkey wrench for us would be what happens with that dryslot in n.central KY, where it pivots, how far north it comes and if it grows in coverage. But you're right about the area behind it having to swing thru anyways I guess. BTW, the RUC virtually screws everyone east of I-75 through 00z. Take it FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 LOL at the DC mid atlantic thread....complete suicide mode over there...even the admins are joining in on the complaining! Just curious what all you guys think...does the 12z NAM look too far north too you? Too me, the southern precip extent looks like it is about 50 miles too far north on the NAM. The storm will start turning n/ne,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 BTW, the RUC virtually screws everyone east of I-75 through 00z. Take it FWIW. What od u mean east of 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 What od u mean east of 75 See my earlier post (before the one you quoted). I was emphasizing Ohio in the one you quoted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 BTW, the RUC virtually screws everyone east of I-75 through 00z. Take it FWIW. You have to gamble with the dryslut if you want the big totals, and i think the RUC is overdoing things, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The storm will start turning n/ne,. Why you think that? What are you seeing that makes you say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's almost a heavy flurry now, darn near a light snow with slightly bigger flakes. So much for the dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Bigger dendrites here now. But yeah overall, I agree. What are you thinking for your hood, 2-4"? Flake size no longer pathetic, but still not anything to write home about. Rate still pretty good and maybe increasing, pretty much all of the city under 20-25 dbz returns now. 2-4 sounds pretty good, I think we hit 3 unless things fizzle out shortly, probably over an inch down already and snowing pretty good. If band can become semi stationary over the next 4-5 hrs as low turns and continues to tap the lake, we could make a run at 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 H5 trough going more negatively tilted (although slight) and hence we are starting to see the adjustment of the sfc/850 low farther to the northwest...as seen in the 12z 12km NAM and latest RUC progs. As for obs...snowing lightly here at this point with about 3/4 mile visibility. Flake size starting to pick up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's almost a heavy flurry now, darn near a light snow with slightly bigger flakes. So much for the dry air. Same here in STHTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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