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New England Storm Dicussion - January 11-12


Baroclinic Zone

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Let's hope tonight we don't see the Euro wandering 50 miles in either direction to take 5 runs of consistency and flush it.

We've got the american models going left and right every six hours, the CMC which was out in right field with Troy O'Leary and the Ukie, and the NMM/ARW cannot even agree (NMM is higher res I think BTW right?). The NAM and MM5 are almost always the same/close to it, they cannot even agree on where the max precip will be setting up at 48.

As long as it's 50 miles NW, I'm good with that.

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OK, I just spent a couple of hours fixing up all my stats and found some great stuff. Here is the Update

=========================================================================================

Guys - At least for MBY -

This will be HISTORIC if I can pull 15" out of this. The reason being:

2 15" Snowstorms within 1 month of each other -

1. January of 1948 Winter had 2 in 8 Days.

2. The UnREAL February of 1969 had 2 (24"+ too)

3. The 2 Historic Blizzards of January and February of 1978 of course had 2 (20"+ of course)

Very Close Call in February of 2003.

This would be Huge. Huuuuge if it could be pulled off.

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OK, I just spent a couple of hours fixing up all my stats and found some great stuff. Here is the Update

=========================================================================================

Guys - At least for MBY -

This will be HISTORIC if I can pull 15" out of this. The reason being:

2 15" Snowstorms within 1 month of each other -

1. January of 1948 Winter had 2 in 8 Days.

2. The UnREAL February of 1969 had 2 (24"+ too)

3. The 2 Historic Blizzards of January and February of 1978 of course had 2 (20"+ of course)

Very Close Call in February of 2003.

This would be Huge. Huuuuge if it could be pulled off.

Double dipping...

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snapback.pngbaroclinic_instability, on 10 January 2011 - 06:57 PM, said:

The 18Z GFS operational just looks bad, and it is no surprise its own ensemble suite is well W. The GFS/ECM ops have been the flattest and weakest from the start 5-6 days ago with this storm as it tracked through the OV. They are holding strong with a weaker solution farther E, but they will likely be wrong in the end--at least to some degree.

snapback.pngforkyfork, on 10 January 2011 - 06:58 PM, said:

the vort track is nearly perfect for the nyc metro

snapback.pngCoastalWx, on 10 January 2011 - 06:59 PM, said:

I def would be excited if I lived near NYC and ne NJ. This has the look of some very heavy snow for a time, as the low gets going and before the mid level lows jump east.

some of the 3 best mets on the board.

don't be suprised if NYC W CT jackpot.

what's with this mid level low jump crap......don't we want the mid level lows effecting us longer for the heavy bands to sit on us longer.

or am i reading into things too much.

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OK, I just spent a couple of hours fixing up all my stats and found some great stuff. Here is the Update

=========================================================================================

Guys - At least for MBY -

This will be HISTORIC if I can pull 15" out of this. The reason being:

2 15" Snowstorms within 1 month of each other -

1. January of 1948 Winter had 2 in 8 Days.

2. The UnREAL February of 1969 had 2 (24"+ too)

3. The 2 Historic Blizzards of January and February of 1978 of course had 2 (20"+ of course)

Very Close Call in February of 2003.

This would be Huge. Huuuuge if it could be pulled off.

Bang out a few beats on the ole squeezebox...I think it's gonna happen for you

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LOL - Troy O'Leary ref.

Hopefully the coast can keep the warmth away for a while...

If we have a track at the canal etc, I'll get my few inches and then it'll flip before dry slotting. Like I said starting with a clean slate tonight IMO, this is crunch time and where some of the variances we've seen this year seem to shake out.

Moneypit, I'd like to see it snow 6-18" in all of ski country. Their economy is more important that me sticking a ruler in snow. Plus I can't ski in Plymouth but I'd like to see the kids get enough to sled on here.

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They somehow manage to squeak by with no public posted snowfall amounts calls in most events for all of SNE. I respect them and want to see what their forecasts are

All I know is that Scooter said he thought GC would do well and that is enough for me. Personally, I think the Western edge of the envelope is more likely than east. That combined with the fact that the East slope seems to find a way to do well regardless makes me confident 12+ is likely. I think a good band will be thrown back this way and set up camp for a while. This will be a good storm but not one that will be a legendary cyclone. Also, they are professional mets that are called upon for forecasts everyday, maybe they just want to enjoy the storm without a gun to their heads. I have an Uncle that is a doctor and he tells me he grows tired of being at social engagements and having one person after another come to him with advice on their ailments. Sometimes people want to just kick back. For salesman it's different, they always need to be selling something, they're weird that way.lol

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BTW I only looked quickly don't really care about previous modeling at this stage in regards to tonights solutions but the RUC and rough UA/WV:

18z NAM was overamplified on the east coast. It was to fast with the vorticity placing it ENE of the Panhandle when it appears to be due north/west. There isn't a clear winner but it would appear the 18z NAM was heavy on the stink factor. Doesn't mean this run won't come in west, just saying.

EDIT: Oh, the GFS looked a little slow with the vorticity...which may be why it ended up booting everything east on the op so we'll see.

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snapback.pngbaroclinic_instability, on 10 January 2011 - 06:57 PM, said:

The 18Z GFS operational just looks bad, and it is no surprise its own ensemble suite is well W. The GFS/ECM ops have been the flattest and weakest from the start 5-6 days ago with this storm as it tracked through the OV. They are holding strong with a weaker solution farther E, but they will likely be wrong in the end--at least to some degree.

snapback.pngforkyfork, on 10 January 2011 - 06:58 PM, said:

the vort track is nearly perfect for the nyc metro

snapback.pngCoastalWx, on 10 January 2011 - 06:59 PM, said:

I def would be excited if I lived near NYC and ne NJ. This has the look of some very heavy snow for a time, as the low gets going and before the mid level lows jump east.

some of the 3 best mets on the board.

don't be suprised if NYC W CT jackpot.

what's with this mid level low jump crap......don't we want the mid level lows effecting us longer for the heavy bands to sit on us longer.

or am i reading into things too much.

use the multi-quote function. just click multi-quote on the quotes you want...then hit "add reply"

anyway, it is interesting what some of the mesomodels are doing down in NJ/NYC area.

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