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New England Storm Dicussion - January 11-12


Baroclinic Zone

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I saw the WSI RPM/WRF really goes nuts with the CCB pretty far west... basically north of NYC!

ginx earlier asked why you would go against "all" model runs and pick litchfield hills area to jackpot...

but you were not going against all model runs.......and i took it as you saying you wouldn't be suprised if they did

the meso models love the area of interior W CT.

now i will freely admit i'm talking out my azz (from "the gut") and i just have a feeling that this thing has 2 Likely paths (of lease resistance) to take

1 curl up tight under central longisland.....H7 nearly pivots again and NYC /W/CT Get 2 feet

2. just inside bench mark track wide spread 10-12 amounts with lollis 16-18

3. outside bench mark weaker ML centers 6-9 with 12 lolli's with the last being the least likely.

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We went the sunday after Christmas and it was a zoo at 7 in the am

I find it rather silly, unless people now a days don't stock up on food but just buy for a few days at a time so they all have to rush to get their food for the day of and the day after the storm just in case they can't travel.

I swear though, people act like they will never be able to get out again.

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I hope folks are going to bed early tonight and not stay up all night for the Euro etc.. You're gonna need your sleep for tomorrow night/Wed

I certainly won't be staying up for the Euro, I've been really exhausted the past few weeks. I went to bed at 5 AM this morning and set my alarm to wake up at 8 AM but ended up sleeping until 3:30 PM :arrowhead:

Going to bed right after the GFS and will wake up around 6 AM tomorrow.

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I find it rather silly, unless people now a days don't stock up on food but just buy for a few days at a time so they all have to rush to get their food for the day of and the day after the storm just in case they can't travel.

I swear though, people act like they will never be able to get out again.

The funny thing is that most of the stores that are mobbed prior to an event are ones within the bigger cities where convenience stores are within wallking distance...and just to keep this a bit on topic, I think 8-14 state wide with lollies to 18, mainly in the ne corner

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What are you talking about? What models am I going against?

I'm a bit worried that the GFS is so far east with the mid level lows and late in closing them off.

Let's hope tonight we don't see the Euro wandering 50 miles in either direction to take 5 runs of consistency and flush it.

We've got the american models going left and right every six hours, the CMC which was out in right field with Troy O'Leary and the Ukie, and the NMM/ARW cannot even agree (NMM is higher res I think BTW right?). The NAM and MM5 are almost always the same/close to it, they cannot even agree on where the max precip will be setting up at 48.

At 2 days, although the margin is somewhat slight the EC has been outperforming everything else recently at 500 with geo heights. I wonder how it's been doing with vorticity but we're about to find out.

Benchmark +/- 20-30is miles to SE of ACK 10-30 miles seems to be where the Euro has been for days. I think that's all we can do at this stage is go with it and keep our fingers crossed that tonight there are no major curves.

I don't make much of the 18z OP Gfs. It's interesting that certain runs verify better than others in terms of 18z/6z/12z/0z....for some reason in this pattern the 18z seems to do the most bouncing.

At least the good news is now that we're at 36-42 hours we don't have to stay up very long to see most everything come in :) And we should be able to pick up the shifts by H12/18.

I'm still deliberately going light in general because it's tough to pin the max, 6-12 figuring on widespread .6 to 1" inch QPF all the way to about Worcester and eastern CT, 1-1.5" east of there (kev is right on the line). 8-16 in the max zones. I do think the canal area(me) east is potentially getting into some temp issues with the 18z wobble west. Balls to the walls by about 11pm when we have at least a sample of the CMC/UK/GFS/NAM and even the "trend" of the nocraps which has been west for 3 runs.

A track up over ACK or between ACK and Chatham means warm air gets into SE MA most of the time. I'd think we'd see some intrusion back towards western Plymouth RTE 44 and up and around a lot like 12/26...that's if the 8h tracked under RI like we had on the NAM scraping the coast. I"m just as worried about the west shift busting snow totals high here (good for some of you) as I am the shift east aloft.

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People bug out in this state whenever a "major" snowstorm is forecast all thanks to '78. the likely hood of that ever repeating(in terms of shuting down the state for three days etc.) is very remote...but people are paranoid

78 was 33 years ago. I think at this point, we (those who were around to enjoy it) merely have it as a "that was great--missed a whole week of school" mentality.

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yeah but think about it...if weenies on here get pissed when someone puts out a range of 9-14 and they only get 10...think what people who don't know crap about the weather think when they hear 12 to 18 with some spots seeing 24 to 30. all they hear is 24 to 30. LOL

I would expect 9 with that forecast especially the way things have gone for me the last 3 years, maybe even expect 7-8", lol

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Let's hope tonight we don't see the Euro wandering 50 miles in either direction to take 5 runs of consistency and flush it.

We've got the american models going left and right every six hours, the CMC which was out in right field with Troy O'Leary and the Ukie, and the NMM/ARW cannot even agree (NMM is higher res I think BTW right?). The NAM and MM5 are almost always the same/close to it, they cannot even agree on where the max precip will be setting up at 48.

At 2 days, although the margin is somewhat slight the EC has been outperforming everything else recently at 500 with geo heights. I wonder how it's been doing with vorticity but we're about to find out.

Benchmark +/- 20-30is miles to SE of ACK 10-30 miles seems to be where the Euro has been for days. I think that's all we can do at this stage is go with it and keep our fingers crossed that tonight there are no major curves.

I don't make much of the 18z OP Gfs. It's interesting that certain runs verify better than others in terms of 18z/6z/12z/0z....for some reason in this pattern the 18z seems to do the most bouncing.

At least the good news is now that we're at 36-42 hours we don't have to stay up very long to see most everything come in :) And we should be able to pick up the shifts by H12/18.

I'm still deliberately going light in general because it's tough to pin the max, 6-12 figuring on widespread .6 to 1" inch QPF all the way to about Worcester and eastern CT, 1-1.5" east of there. 8-16 in the max zones. I do think the canal area(me) east is potentially getting into some temp issues with the 18z wobble west.

LOL - Troy O'Leary ref.

Hopefully the coast can keep the warmth away for a while...

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Just do a few bong hits from your 6 footer

:lol:

Not for me

After 10.5 hours sleep?

I might not be able to fall asleep early tonight just b/c of that, but my sleep schedule is so screwed up so I really don't know what to do, I'll try falling asleep early. Maybe I'll go get a 40...those usually help me sleep...for a few hours anyways.

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