MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think I slept 5 minutes. Hopefully I survive the workday and live to actually see the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think I slept 5 minutes. Hopefully I survive the workday and live to actually see the storm. One time about 3 years ago I had spent literally 4-5 days sleeping for like 2 hours a night looking at the models for a severe wx event and I went to sleep the night before around 4 AM and wanted to get up at 6-7 AM b/c there was a round of storms coming through in the morning, I slept through the storms and missed it, one of the storms ended up producing half dollar-sized hail in East Hartford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Thumpity Thump. Hey, How much for DC?lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Anyone recall how soon before go-time did GFS follow mesoscale models and shift west on 12/26? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Anyone recall how soon before go-time did GFS follow mesoscale models and shift west on 12/26? I think it was on the Friday just prior to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think it was on the Friday just prior to the storm. GFS didn't follow mesoscale models in the 12/26 storm...it was furthest west and ended up being the most correct. It was actually the mesoscale models which were further east in that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 My favorite SREF graphic this morning...Never thought I'd see 80% of 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS didn't follow mesoscale models in the 12/26 storm...it was furthest west and ended up being the most correct. It was actually the mesoscale models which were further east in that storm. Gotcha, I was confusing the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Don't want to leave KBosch out of the loop ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Your 48hr total RGEM QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Good God Interesting, it only gives BED 13.1" (only)?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 And for our friends in Vermont ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 30 inches anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Gives me pretty close to 1''...not bad. Probably going to end up trimming back some from my previous map now that things are becoming more fine tuned and there seems to be a general idea of where the heaviest QPF is going to occur and where the better banding may potentially occur. Instead of having 10-20'' for CT might just go to 8-16'' statewide with lollipops near 20'', especially towards NE CT. We'll see how 12z runs are QPF wise and if the NAM backs down any or if any other models beef up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Clown map Locked and key chucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS didn't follow mesoscale models in the 12/26 storm...it was furthest west and ended up being the most correct. It was actually the mesoscale models which were further east in that storm. thanks... i have archived only 12/24 0Z GFS which was far east (and ultimately less accurate than) 12/24 18Z - 12/25 18Z ETA suites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 30 inches anyone? If the NAM has its way maybe. Thinking ~2' is max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM wins.. Started the west trend yesterday. Not often it scores a coup..but it has done it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Locked and key chucked Thats how we know the 06z NAM is probably wrong...it tries to give a little jackpot near Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just a crushing, crushing storm for most of us. Glad i slept 8 hrs last nigt. Tonight is gonna be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Thats how we know the 06z NAM is probably wrong...it tries to give a little jackpot near Tolland. LOL..good point. I honestly think the NAM totals may not be that far from reality. I haven't gotten back far enough into the thread. How much qpf does Euro have? Did you throw out any forecast #'s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammerz_nailz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Will there be dry slot issues with this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Your 48hr total RGEM QPF. 26mm = inch? I always screw that one up. Looks like some folks are going to get some snow from this. Are those SE totals in the BOX map due to mixing? In that case, we (speaking as a region) better hope the jackpot doesn't shift any further lest we have some really disgruntled folks. As it stands now, all of us can enjoy. Speaking as a weenie, though, let's give this jackpot a nudge northwest. 11.5/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 LOL..good point. I honestly think the NAM totals may not be that far from reality. I haven't gotten back far enough into the thread. How much qpf does Euro have? Did you throw out any forecast #'s? Well I issued my forecast to clients awhile ago. I do think some lollis to 20" are possible. I'll throw out some numbers later. Euro qpf wasn't NAM-esque with 1.5-2.0+ amounts....more like 1.00-1.25 with a few spots maybe just over 1.25. 06z NAM is likely a bit overdone, but its original idea yesterday of something near or inside of ACK seems to have been correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm hoping the 6z NAM is a bit too much trend. I'll take SREFs/Euro and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 26mm = inch? I always screw that one up. Looks like some folks are going to get some snow from this. Are those SE totals in the BOX map due to mixing? In that case, we (speaking as a region) better hope the jackpot doesn't shift any further lest we have some really disgruntled folks. As it stands now, all of us can enjoy. Speaking as a weenie, though, let's give this jackpot a nudge northwest. 11.5/7 Close .. 25.4mm = 1 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 We'll probably end up seeing somewhere around 1-1.25'' widespread QPF wise with some places probably getting closer to 1.50'' perhaps a tad higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm hoping the 6z NAM is a bit too much trend. I'll take SREFs/Euro and be happy. And herein begins the intra-region rivalry...... : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Will...what about the snow numbers? Even last night's NAMMOS seemed underdone everywhere. GFS the same. Snow numbers have been underdone in the progs for this event the entire time which I still take this as a flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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