HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Staying up late to hear the Euro returns has been well worth it - I'll fall asleep w/ a smile! Dogs waking me at 6am not so good. G'nite all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 IZG got deformed pretty well on Boxing Day, but I believe you were home? If the EC is right we should do pretty damn well if the banding sets up over us. violently agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Cue Kbosh The WRF is awesome. And it looks like it wants me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I have a feeling the radar is going to look almost like an MCS over LI at some point around 06-09z Wednesday morning and its going to get absorbed into the rapidly developing CCB over SNE...hopefully it works out ideally....it could be pretty awesome to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Euro looks like it wants to swing a clipper thru here on sunday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I have a feeling the radar is going to look almost like an MCS over LI at some point around 06-09z Wednesday morning and its going to get absorbed into the rapidly developing CCB over SNE...hopefully it works out ideally....it could be pretty awesome to watch. Yeah it has that look on the models. It should really go to town down there prior to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Euro looks like it wants to swing a clipper thru here on sunday.. In time for football? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like the EURO gives me about 1.1" of QPF. NAM 1.76" GEM, RGEM and SREFs ~1.5" GFS and UK are being flushed like a used jimmy. Final call IMBY: 12-20"+ 1.1-1.5" of QPF with ratios likely a hair better than 10:1 due to superior snow growth; banding potential above avg considering optimal positioning of mid level centers, cf placement and timing of most rapid H5 intensification. Largest event since Feb 2006 is very likely here and I'm pretty confident. Greater than 20" would not shock me, but only duration precludes me from calling for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Euro looks like it wants to swing a clipper thru here on sunday.. If Ji lived in SNE he'd already be over our impending Wednesday storm and setting his sights on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah it has that look on the models. It should really go to town down there prior to 12z. The amount of lift is going to be pretty amazing. There's definitely slantwise convection too...so I'd expect the radar to be lit up like a Christmas tree down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I ask this every time because I deem you the expert of it, but what are you thinking in terms of ratios? It would depend on banding, i'd assume. I'm off to bed so no time for BUFKIT. I have to be up at 5:15am so I'm already going to be dragging. Just know that we should get into a period of deformation banding with deep mid-level moisture and strong omega. The NAM has very strong omega at CON from 12-18z Wed from 500-700mb. The prime snow growth zone (-12C to -18C) is running around 550-700mb there during that time. So we should have some great snow growth in those bands. I'd assume 20:1 in the bands and 10-12:1 outside of them. Account for some settlement with time and winds and I'd say we average 15-18:1. The more snow you get the more difficult it is to sustain high ratios since the weight of the snow compacts on itself. If you want to be a true snow measuring weenie, yet stay within the rules, measure and clear the snow every 6 hours after it begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm off to bed so no time for BUFKIT. I have to be up at 5:15am so I'm already going to be dragging. Just know that we should get into a period of deformation banding with deep mid-level moisture and strong omega. The NAM has very strong omega at CON from 12-18z Wed from 500-700mb. The prime snow growth zone (-12C to -18C) is running around 550-700mb there during that time. So we should have some great snow growth in those bands. I'd assume 20:1 in the bands and 10-12:1 outside of them. Account for some settlement with time and winds and I'd say we average 15-18:1. The more snow you get the more difficult it is to sustain high ratios since the weight of the snow compacts on itself. If you want to be a true snow measuring weenie, yet stay within the rules, measure and clear the snow every 6 hours after it begins. Thanks for taking the time Brian. I really like everyone from KMHT south (and probably KCON). Up this way (west and north), I'm less hopeful, but I'm pretty convinced this should be a warning event even here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Boy, the EURO actually does tuck this pretty near MTP before shooting ene into ACK sound......unrivaled QPF max over LI.......shades of the Boxing day event. How does that differ from that event.....Scott.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Boy, the EURO actually does tuck this pretty near MTP before shooting ene into ACK sound......unrivaled QPF max over LI.......shades of the Boxing day event. How does that differ from that event.....Scott.... The qpf blob there almost looks convective as the storm goes totally nuts...the mid/upper level features never wrap well back W of us like that storm did. 500mb is about perfect for us...and not wrapped up obscene well SW of us...thats not to say we can't discount flirting with dryslots...but I thing most will find the issue is much diminished this storm and if occurs, less short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The qpf blob there almost looks convective as the storm goes totally nuts...the mid/upper level features never wrap well back W of us like that storm did. 500mb is about perfect for us...and not wrapped up obscene well SW of us...thats not to say we can't discount flirting with dryslots...but I thing most will find the issue is much diminished this storm and if occurs, less short lived. I hate that SV doesn't have H7 for the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hey Will, March 1960\Dec 2005 hybrid.....still analog of choice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hey Will, March 1960\Dec 2005 hybrid.....still analog of choice... Yeah I suppose, but this is def. more compact than Mar '60...and probably faster moving, so that's where 12/9/05 comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah I suppose, but this is def. more compact than Mar '60...and probably faster moving, so that's where 12/9/05 comes in. Exactly what I was figuring...I'm so pumped that I'm staying up for the NAM, despite having wk tmw.....I am going to be a zombie come Wed PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SREFs look almost identical to the 21z run except they are stronger with the sfc low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SREFs look almost identical to the 21z run except they are stronger with the sfc low. Everything trending ever so slightly more impressive as we near go-time.....wow. Usually the opposite is the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 EC ens match the op a hair SE of MTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow the 6z NAM is way tucked in toward the coast. NE MD/PHL/NYC hit hard 18-24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow the 6z NAM is way tucked in toward the coast. NE MD/PHL/NYC hit hard 18-24. Yeah this might be by far the furthest tucked in solution we've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It looks like it handles the vorticity field a lot differently than other runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 984mb over MTP at 30hr. CT to ORH pounded in those 6hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Oh sh**. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hmmm, 8" of snow in 3 hours here between 27-30h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This run is too much like Boxing day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Back to the 12/9/05 Buzzards Bay track. Probably a bit too amped up on this run, but it would be perfect for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This run is too much like Boxing day. You can't compare this storm to Boxing Day....it will never mature as early as that one was. There could be some brief dryslot issues with a 12/9/05 track, but even on this run you get destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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