Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

New England Storm Dicussion - January 11-12


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Its over an inch of qpf for all of SNE/LI and even back to NYC which is right on the line...so everyone should get a huge dump of snow where ptype issues don't enter the equation.

Fantastic. The "here we go again" was alluding to something like...over a foot again, seriously? This is actually going to happen twice in a winter in coastal CT? It's awesome.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think we could see some decent banding here..........

Which in turn would boost our totals.. im not used to relying on banding. Im used to ocean enhanced, ocean effect, and cf stuff. Really antsy and nervous cause i dont know the climate here half as well as i do at home. My first big storm here. God, gotta go to bed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Been 2 years and a month since the last game of naked twister....

You might get it this storm...it probably won't be as sharp a CF as that one (pretty tough to beat that one)....but there will be a CF.

Keep in mind how bad the CFs are often forecast in a lot of storms...they often show a diffuse setup like low 30s right on the water and mid 20s in ORH....but in reality it ends up being 32F in BOS and 18F in ORH with the huge gradient somewhere in between...usually near you. I remember the morning of 12/21/08, the models had me pegged for like 28F and coastal MA for 35F when it was around 31F in BOS and 13F IMBY. They will sometimes bust by 10F or more on those.

Thats just another component we'll have to watch as we get closer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Over ACK is just about a perfect, text book track for KGAY.....NAM, GEM, RGEM and SREF....lalallalalalal lock sh** up.

12/26 actually went west of there, but this will have better mid levels. The CF I think gets past the coastline because I think we'll have some erly flow for a little while before winds go n. It's close.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You might get it this storm...it probably won't be as sharp a CF as that one (pretty tough to beat that one)....but there will be a CF.

Keep in mind how bad the CFs are often forecast in a lot of storms...they often show a diffuse setup like low 30s right on the water and mid 20s in ORH....but in reality it ends up being 32F in BOS and 18F in ORH with the huge gradient somewhere in between...usually near you. I remember the morning of 12/21/08, the models had me pegged for like 28F and coastal MA for 35F when it was around 31F in BOS and 13F IMBY. They will sometimes bust by 10F or more on those.

Thats just another component we'll have to watch as we get closer.

I can see 33 at BOS, 31 for me and 26 or 27 for Ray and as you said possible below 20 for ORH

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You might get it this storm...it probably won't be as sharp a CF as that one (pretty tough to beat that one)....but there will be a CF.

Keep in mind how bad the CFs are often forecast in a lot of storms...they often show a diffuse setup like low 30s right on the water and mid 20s in ORH....but in reality it ends up being 32F in BOS and 18F in ORH with the huge gradient somewhere in between...usually near you. I remember the morning of 12/21/08, the models had me pegged for like 28F and coastal MA for 35F when it was around 31F in BOS and 13F IMBY. They will sometimes bust by 10F or more on those.

Thats just another component we'll have to watch as we get closer.

Yup.

Don't expect it to be as insane as that one, but 32 @ noraster128's and Don's place and 27* here is fine by me.....couple that with perfect placing of mid level centers and well timed intensification of H5 and my largest concern is keeping my expections in check.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yup.

Don't expect it to be as insane as that one, but 32 @ noraster128's and Don's place and 27* here is fine by me.....couple that with perfect placing of mid level centers and well timed intensification of H5 and my largest concern is keeping my expections in check.

The limiting factor in all of this is likely to be duration....we'll see if we can get lucky and have a 12/9/05-esque type fireworks show (well nothing will ever match that one) but lasting for 4-6 hours longer than that one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Which in turn would boost our totals.. im not used to relying on banding. Im used to ocean enhanced, ocean effect, and cf stuff. Really antsy and nervous cause i dont know the climate here half as well as i do at home. My first big storm here. God, gotta go to bed.

Higher ratios are going to be good out where you are thats for sure so that will boost totals......... :snowman:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12/26 actually went west of there, but this will have better mid levels. The CF I think gets past the coastline because I think we'll have some erly flow for a little while before winds go n. It's close.

Yup.

Don't expect it to be as insane as that one, but 32 @ noraster128's and Don's place and 27* here is fine by me.....couple that with perfect placing of mid level centers and well timed intensification of H5 and my largest concern is keeping my expections in check.

Right......more to it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The limiting factor in all of this is likely to be duration....we'll see if we can get lucky and have a 12/9/05-esque type fireworks show (well nothing will ever match that one) but lasting for 4-6 hours longer than that one.

That is the one mitigating factor for me and the only one.

We'll see if I can pull of a 20" in 12 hrs miracle.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Which in turn would boost our totals.. im not used to relying on banding. Im used to ocean enhanced, ocean effect, and cf stuff. Really antsy and nervous cause i dont know the climate here half as well as i do at home. My first big storm here. God, gotta go to bed.

IZG got deformed pretty well on Boxing Day, but I believe you were home? If the EC is right we should do pretty damn well if the banding sets up over us.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...