40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like Will is going for 12 hrs of sleep, tonight in prep for ballz to the wallz tmw night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like Will is going for 12 hrs of sleep, tonight in prep for ballz to the wallz tmw night. Wednesday will probably be one of the more interesting sne threads in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wednesday will probably be one of the more interesting sne threads in a while. I can't believe that the NAM gives me 1.76", the GEM and RGEM give me 1.5" and even the stingy EURO gives me a bit over an inch....I am pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like Will is going for 12 hrs of sleep, tonight in prep for ballz to the wallz tmw night. Nah, just needed a quick 3 hours after the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah both nam and gfs mos waving a red flag for some reason. Nammos pops arent as high as you would think either. The MET has snow cats of 1-8 at LCI, 4-4 at ORH, and 4-1 at BDL. lol...throw it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 all right. I'm out. Conclusions thus far: Widespread 8"+ for the BOX CWA Someone in eastern MA or CT will reach 18" I'll try to be up at 8 tomorrow, and get in some power naps during the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Near ACK looks to be a growing consensus as we fine tune the final forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Near ACK looks to be a growing consensus as we fine tune the final forecasts. Right on cue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nice. You keep trying to make me think I'm gonna win again With the velocity I'd think the band of precip would be a tick more to the west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You keep trying to make me think I'm gonna win again With the velocity I'd think the band of precip would be a tick more to the west? You and your west fetish. Vertical velocity won't make the band move west, but yes you should do fine, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The SUNY really wraps the CCB around...nice frontogenetic banding on the SW/S side of the H7 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You and your west fetish. Vertical velocity won't make the band move west, but yes you should do fine, regardless. Oh I know I'll do fine, just wondering and trying to learn while we wait, thanks. If Kevin was here he'd be asking for the mets to throw out their totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You and your west fetish. Vertical velocity won't make the band move west, but yes you should do fine, regardless. Lol...he's has a jackpot fetish ever since the norlun over performed there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 LOL, some of the ensembles (like the 00z GFS) want to make this quite the wintry pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Lol...he's has a jackpot fetish ever since the norlun over performed there. I'm being greedy. I want a true jackpot. I could drive for 20 minutes and get in to Mount Shelton to find someone who doubled me from the norlun. I'd be happy with 8 out of this which is all but a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You and your west fetish. Vertical velocity won't make the band move west, but yes you should do fine, regardless. Scott, there's still uncertainty for SE areas as there often is with respect to the rain/snow line. On the 26th the rain made it as far west as Newport. Do you see a similar rain-line with this event? My hope is this storm has more balls to it and can keep SE areas snow longer as soon as temps creep up to 33. With that storm as soon as the heavy precip. moved north and we were affected by the dry slot...more spotty areas of precip, we went over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm being greedy. I want a true jackpot. I could drive for 20 minutes and get in to Mount Shelton to find someone who doubled me from the norlun. I'd be happy with 8 out of this which is all but a lock. Yeah I wouldn't worry, you should get at least 10" I would think....with a chance a lot more. Someone further northeast in SNE will probably get the jackpot....or a big total could come out of LI which could do sneaky well if BL temps cooperate enough not to drop ratios too low. But regardless, I think the entire region should be getting pretty big totals save maybe the Cape which is a lot iffier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Scott, there's still uncertainty for SE areas as there often is with respect to the rain/snow line. On the 26th the rain made it as far west as Newport. Do you see a similar rain-line with this event? My hope is this storm has more balls to it and can keep SE areas snow longer as soon as temps creep up to 33. With that storm as soon as the heavy precip. moved north and we were affected by the dry slot...more spotty areas of precip, we went over to rain. It really will depend on the track. 20 miles could be the difference between a 36F rain and a 33F wet snow bomb. I would say that you could mix with rain for a time, especially if you come close to dryslotting and lose the good lift, but it looks like you would have one heck of a wet snow bomb. I know you are pretty far south, but your longitude will help. At least climo helps a little this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah I wouldn't worry, you should get at least 10" I would think....with a chance a lot more. Someone further northeast in SNE will probably get the jackpot....or a big total could come out of LI which could do sneaky well if BL temps cooperate enough not to drop ratios too low. But regardless, I think the entire region should be getting pretty big totals save maybe the Cape which is a lot iffier. That's beautiful, thanks for your thoughts. You're even more bullish than Ryan. I know my jackpot odds for anything are obviously minimal given my location but it would be a lot of fun to approach the blizzard total again. What a span here - in a little more than two weeks we may have two systems giving us a combined 30+ inches and a great norlun in the middle. It's insane for coastal Connecticut. And two bombs being sleet-free, even more shocking! Perhaps some pellets for everyone again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Man, still very much up in the air here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Man, still very much up in the air here. GFS is..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS is..... Far NW fringe in my mind spells deform but no mets chimed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It really will depend on the track. 20 miles could be the difference between a 36F rain and a 33F wet snow bomb. I would say that you could mix with rain for a time, especially if you come close to dryslotting and lose the good lift, but it looks like you would have one heck of a wet snow bomb. I know you are pretty far south, but your longitude will help. At least climo helps a little this time around. Thanks Scott. At the height of the 26th storm we entered the dryslot earlier than areas just to my east in extreme Southern Bristol County and those beach towns like Westport west of New Bedford had 11 inches while I only had 6 inches. Other than March 1999 significant wet snow bombs in Newport are rare because usually after a couple hours of wet snow with 33 degree temps something has to give and we usually flip to rain or the snow starts melting as it's falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Euro through 24 looks very very similar to 12z...it could end up just a fraction more amped because the vortmax looks more impressive. Heights are almost dead on...again maybe just the slightest fraction amped. But it definitely seems like we are probably not going to see any huge shifts now. However small shifts will make a big difference for far SE areas, so they'll be important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It looks a little west of 12z at hr 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like its west more and amped more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 near ACK track. Moneypit doubters cast aside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It looks a little west of 12z at hr 36. Yeah I'm guess its going to probably go over ACK or somewhere close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It looks a little west of 12z at hr 36. BINGO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.