Organizing Low Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think there was an event last winter (maybe the winter before?) where a 12z NAM run went bonkers for SNE and TV mets went aggressive for a lot of snow. I think a lot of schools closed early before snow even was supposed to start falling. In the end it ended up being a light rain/snow mix for a lot of places with little, if any, accumulation. I'm not saying it relates to this system, but it just came into my mind. Anyone remember the date for that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What, do we have HPC-gate every storm now? . My 2 cents. Means very little. We heard this song and dance 12/26 only that time "bad data". HPC Gate? Jerry that just put drops out in support of the storm. I tihnk it's much more important that there were no important erros and if anything the GFS got even more data. The bad data thing was a red hierring from the get go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 FWIW..not much...Nogaps came west. Basically runs the low now over or just outside the BM which for them is the equivalent of the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 My 2 cents. Means very little. We heard this song and dance 12/26 only that time "bad data". Anyway...looks like the same old solution more or less to me. Exactly....not sure what he is talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think there was an event last winter (maybe the winter before?) where a 12z NAM run went bonkers for SNE and TV mets went aggressive for a lot of snow. I think a lot of schools closed early before snow even was supposed to start falling. In the end it ended up being a light rain/snow mix for a lot of places with little, if any, accumulation. I'm not saying it relates to this system, but it just came into my mind. Anyone remember the date for that one? I remember that...I think it was in March. NAM was totally and completely on it's own though, from what I can remember. Like, not even an iota of support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think there was an event last winter (maybe the winter before?) where a 12z NAM run went bonkers for SNE and TV mets went aggressive for a lot of snow. I think a lot of schools closed early before snow even was supposed to start falling. In the end it ended up being a light rain/snow mix for a lot of places with little, if any, accumulation. I'm not saying it relates to this system, but it just came into my mind. Anyone remember the date for that one? Yeah I remember it not sure which one. What new soloution.....same crap we have seen all day; NAM great and GFS meh. Meh? You're greedy man, the GFS is a nice snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 HPC Gate? Jerry that just put drops out in support of the storm. I tihnk it's much more important that there were no important erros and if anything the GFS got even more data. The bad data thing was a red hierring from the get go. But it didn't change.....it still isn't a bomb, so what is the good news....I have no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah I remember it not sure which one. Meh? You're greedy man, the GFS is a nice snowstorm. Dude, you're coming off like the GFS just improved by leaps and bounds and it didn't. All it did was serve to perpetuate the same questions that already existed. And yes.....relative to the NAM...the GFS is meh....I think most would agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM/UKMET is a decent snowstorm. NAM/RGEM is a huge. Euro somewhere in the middle to this point but leaning more strong vs weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 In this last system in the same rough pattern (was only 48 hours ago) the RGEM/NAM were consistently too far NW and got tooled by the Euro/GFS/UK. It's impossible to say what is right but I did post the maps earlier today showing the GFS having verified very well in the last day or two, same with the Uncle Ukie. This will be the storm that we either shelve the NAM mentally, or all give it another great chance. I'm in the shelve category, I think this run had some real issues post 33+. I may be wrong and won't be too proud to admit if it that's the case. I think it's doing the same thing as the other day...again. yeah but the last storm was a weird setup ...this is not. would this not be the place where the gfs would show its se bias? of course that would suggest split the diff and go with the euro. it just seems that most of the models have been trending a little west...maybe they've trended to far and the gfs is starting the leveling off process. ah who the fook knows. for two days i've been expecting to wake up to a wsw for 6-10 and that is probably what it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM/UKMET is a decent snowstorm. NAM/RGEM is a huge. Euro somewhere in the middle to this point but leaning more strong vs weak. Euro is going to go a very, very long way in the mesoscale vs. global dispute. Especially since it has almost NAM-like resolution. If it hedges east, we know the NAM is wrong. If west, bombs away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think there was an event last winter (maybe the winter before?) where a 12z NAM run went bonkers for SNE and TV mets went aggressive for a lot of snow. I think a lot of schools closed early before snow even was supposed to start falling. In the end it ended up being a light rain/snow mix for a lot of places with little, if any, accumulation. I'm not saying it relates to this system, but it just came into my mind. Anyone remember the date for that one? Feb. 10th, 2010? The bowling ball Miller B too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Exactly....not sure what he is talking about. It appears HPC ran some research flights to put dropsondes into various areas. That's not going to hurt the GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I remember that...I think it was in March. NAM was totally and completely on it's own though, from what I can remember. Like, not even an iota of support. Feb 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It appears HPC ran some research flights to put dropsondes into various areas. That's not going to hurt the GFS.... I never said that it would, but I think that significance of that "extra data" is often overstated and my point will be slammed home when the EURO holds serve in an hour and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think there was an event last winter (maybe the winter before?) where a 12z NAM run went bonkers for SNE and TV mets went aggressive for a lot of snow. I think a lot of schools closed early before snow even was supposed to start falling. In the end it ended up being a light rain/snow mix for a lot of places with little, if any, accumulation. I'm not saying it relates to this system, but it just came into my mind. Anyone remember the date for that one? Oh man I remember that one...it was a late seasaon event...like late Feb or March...just can't remember the date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 But it didn't change.....it still isn't a bomb, so what is the good news....I have no idea. Maybe that this is a good thing for the accouracy of the model TONIGHT? It's not all about my backyard Ray. It's probably not a coincidence that there are differences right away in the NAM/GFS now either IMO...but who cares anway it's a good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Feb 10. Yeah, I said Feb. at first but second-guessed myself. NAM had 1.5'' of QPF like 30 hours out. Only difference was that everything else was a crappy solution, unlike this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Oh man I remember that one...it was a late seasaon event...like late Feb or March...just can't remember the date. I had given up any hope for the winter and mentally and emotionally checked out, by that point.....so i didn't really care and expected nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I never said that it would, but I think that significance of that "extra data" is often overstated and my point will be slammed home when the EURO holds serve in an hour and a half. The NAM and GFS don't appear to have significant difference IMO for initialization. It's the model physics that is causing the larger difference for the low position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This is pretty neat to see. Note how those theta-e surfaces our in the vertical and trying to fold back near 12z Wednesday. Some of that may be related to dynamic cooling, but that's a good indication of instability aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mica Vim Toot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I honestly had to look that up when you first posted it... I hope N ME gets in on the action. Don't we both. Lived in Westminstah on the Ashburnham line back in the day. Loved Wachusett. The lit trails to my south dimmed with approaching snow were my "radar" at the time. Vim Toot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Maybe that this is a good thing for the accouracy of the model TONIGHT? It's not all about my backyard Ray. It's probably not a coincidence that there are differences right away in the NAM/GFS now either IMO...but who cares anway it's a good snow. Not shocking....if you haven't noticed, they haven't been exactly shaking hands of late.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 According to this http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/t00z/depth.html The best banding would occur from SE CT through RI and NE/SE MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The NAM and GFS don't appear to have significant difference IMO for initialization. It's the model physics that is causing the larger difference for the low position. I admittedly didn't look, but I would have guessed that to be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This is pretty neat to see. Note how those theta-e surfaces our in the vertical and trying to fold back near 12z Wednesday. Some of that may be related to dynamic cooling, but that's a good indication of instability aloft. THUNDERSNOW!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 According to this http://moe.met.fsu.e...t00z/depth.html The best banding would occur from SE CT through RI and NE/SE MA if what Scott posted verifies..there will actually be convective instability...which would favor vertical convection instead of slant wise convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 if what Scott posted verifies..there will actually be convective instability...which would favor vertical convection instead of slant wise convection. That would be sick!!!! That would mean we'd be dealing with actual embedded thunderstorms again with rotation!!!! That would certainly mean 3-5''/HR snowfall rates and wind gusts well over 40-50 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Cue severe wx season in the sE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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