SC48 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Crazy Uncle UKIE has come in further west and wetter... Weathafella, If you see the 60 hour totals on the GFS, they are slightly wetter and a tick or two /northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 After the GFS run, We can hold off on most of the 12-18" calls........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Remember, we're missing qpf from 36 to 42 which is likely pretty high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Crazy Uncle UKIE has come in further west and wetter... it had to come west...otherwise it was going to go from crazy uncle to Alzheimer's grampy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Man, this is a tough forecast for western areas, I don't know what to think at this point. As a , I want to believe the GFS is too far east but I also think the NAM is overdoing it...maybe the ECM is a good compromise? I am thinking the same thing which means waiting. But the trend in the RGEM and Srefs in the past 12-18 hours has consistently been more precip and further West. The Nam has even gotten more intense and slightly more west with the PCP as far as I rememver. GFS has stayed pretty much constant. I think I am going with a SREF // Euro combo for pcp amounts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Does anyone have QPF fields for the Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Weathafella, If you see the 60 hour totals on the GFS, they are slightly wetter and a tick or two /northwest. I think UKMET is actually the same or maybe even wetter vs GFS this run but we miss the 6 hour period from 36 to 42. Looks decent to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I have a buddy who works for the NWS in North Carolina. He says and i quote " All I can tell you is that the NAM omega fields nailed our snow band today whereas the GFS missed it." good sign for us weenies The 18z run was a little too far north for ATL, but did show the mega band even there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is it possible that this is a pattern that the GFS doesn't do as well with? I realize the last couple of storms were in very anomalous patterns whereas this seems more like a straightforward miller b hybrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 At least the 21z old school ETA is a good crushing though . that's a good point brian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Agree with Phil and Jerry...UK came west so it's now in the consensus of the 0z GFS/12z EC...little east of the EC but in the ballpark now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is it possible that this is a pattern that the GFS doesn't do as well with? I realize the last couple of storms were in very anomalous patterns whereas this seems more like a straightforward miller b hybrid. That's what Tip says. Ok, now off to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 At least the 21z old school ETA is a good crushing though . It is, but I'm not sure how they're running that model anymore (and I'm not sure how exactly they initialize the SREFs). They're weird model run times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 it had to come west...otherwise it was going to go from crazy uncle to Alzheimer's grampy Looks decent to me Phil...much wetter than I would have thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks decent to me Phil...much wetter than I would have thought. i love how it looks for MBY... i was just saying it damn well better have made a move west...it was really far east earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If the NAM seemed to verify for the south what implications does that have for us? If any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 0253Z TUE JAN 11 2011 00Z NCEP PROD IS ON SCHD WITH NAM TO POST PROCESSING AND THE GFS UNDERWAY. 30 CAN 6 MEX AND 3 CARIB RAOBS WERE ABVL FOR THE GFS. ALSO 8 DROPSONDE AND 13 FLIGHT LEVEL RECON REPORTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WERE AVBL FOR THE GFS IN SUPPORT OF THE DEVLPG AND POTENTIALLY MAJOR EAST COAST STORM. RAOB UPDATE... XMR/74794 - DELETED TEMPS 719-690 MB...WET-BULB EFFECT. why not incude it in the NAM??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If the NAM seemed to verify for the south what implications does that have for us? If any? Probably not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i love how it looks for MBY... i was just saying it damn well better have made a move west...it was really far east earlier. You don't think you're changing to rain? What do you think you'll get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You don't think you're changing to rain? What do you think you'll get? well i didn't say that. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is it possible that this is a pattern that the GFS doesn't do as well with? I realize the last couple of storms were in very anomalous patterns whereas this seems more like a straightforward miller b hybrid. In this last system in the same rough pattern (was only 48 hours ago) the RGEM/NAM were consistently too far NW and got tooled by the Euro/GFS/UK. It's impossible to say what is right but I did post the maps earlier today showing the GFS having verified very well in the last day or two, same with the Uncle Ukie. This will be the storm that we either shelve the NAM mentally, or all give it another great chance. I'm in the shelve category, I think this run had some real issues post 33+. I may be wrong and won't be too proud to admit if it that's the case. I think it's doing the same thing as the other day...again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i love how it looks for MBY... i was just saying it damn well better have made a move west...it was really far east earlier. Yes it was crazy uncle east. Don't be surprised if it runs up into our us next run...lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You don't think you're changing to rain? What do you think you'll get? The UKMET does not show rain anywhere. He was talking about that specific model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 0253Z TUE JAN 11 2011 00Z NCEP PROD IS ON SCHD WITH NAM TO POST PROCESSING AND THE GFS UNDERWAY. 30 CAN 6 MEX AND 3 CARIB RAOBS WERE ABVL FOR THE GFS. ALSO 8 DROPSONDE AND 13 FLIGHT LEVEL RECON REPORTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WERE AVBL FOR THE GFS IN SUPPORT OF THE DEVLPG AND POTENTIALLY MAJOR EAST COAST STORM. RAOB UPDATE... XMR/74794 - DELETED TEMPS 719-690 MB...WET-BULB EFFECT. why not incude it in the NAM??? HUGE! I don't think they can and get it out in time. So that's huge. Tons of extra recon and we have a new solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I am thinking the same thing which means waiting. But the trend in the RGEM and Srefs in the past 12-18 hours has consistently been more precip and further West. The Nam has even gotten more intense and slightly more west with the PCP as far as I rememver. GFS has stayed pretty much constant. I think I am going with a SREF // Euro combo for pcp amounts.... I'm hedging on the side of caution..even though that burned me in the last storm. This is a different beast though. I decided for my initial call for DXR I'm going with 5-10"..if I need to up it then I will but if the GFS never comes around I'm going to have a hard time doing that. How much does the ECM give western CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What, do we have HPC-gate every storm now? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 HUGE! I don't think they can and get it out in time. So that's huge. Tons of extra recon and we have a new solution. possibly but the GFS has been consistently SE, so who knows maybe those raobs didnt have much effect.....i guess we will see. the euro will be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 HUGE! I don't think they can and get it out in time. So that's huge. Tons of extra recon and we have a new solution. My 2 cents. Means very little. We heard this song and dance 12/26 only that time "bad data". Anyway...looks like the same old solution more or less to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think there was an event last winter (maybe the winter before?) where a 12z NAM run went bonkers for SNE and TV mets went aggressive for a lot of snow. I think a lot of schools closed early before snow even was supposed to start falling. In the end it ended up being a light rain/snow mix for a lot of places with little, if any, accumulation. I'm not saying it relates to this system, but it just came into my mind. Anyone remember the date for that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 HUGE! I don't think they can and get it out in time. So that's huge. Tons of extra recon and we have a new solution. What new soloution.....same crap we have seen all day; NAM great and GFS meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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