goeatweeds Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I use NCEP for GFS NAM and Srefs though Errrrr, nm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I thought Kev was your Svengali. That's when it comes to severe wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Seriously? You wait two minutes before the GFS starts to go to bed??? . . . Yeah, I've got stuff to deal with before I go to bed, and I really need to get more than 4 hours of sleep tonight. Chances are I will wake up at about 2:00am and check the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It may flirt with rain for a time, but could be another wet snowbomb down there. Could be electricity fail in a lot of places again. yeah was thinking the same. somewhere se of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It looks like more qpf believe it or not. But pretty close agreement between RGEM/NAM which Will has said is a good sign for agreement. We'll see. You have to be kidding. How can the nam be outdone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 God do I want this to verify. KTAN 33 01/12 09Z 32 32 55 14 0.12 0.00 535 540 -4.6 -23.6 1006 100 -SN 000OVC277 1.2 0.7 36 01/12 12Z 32 32 49 20 0.53 0.00 536 534 -4.0 -23.4 997 100 +SN 000OVC222 5.5 0.1 39 01/12 15Z 33 32 34 25 0.60 0.01 532 523 -4.3 -25.9 988 100 SN 002OVC083 5.8 0.4 42 01/12 18Z 32 31 338 22 0.30 0.00 530 518 -5.0 -27.0 984 100 SN 001OVC097 3.1 0.0 45 01/12 21Z 29 27 297 21 0.19 0.00 526 518 -8.1 -28.2 989 100 SN 002OVC179 1.9 0.5 48 01/13 00Z 26 24 302 20 0.11 0.00 524 520 -8.8 -29.1 994 100 -SN 000OVC166 1.1 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah, you'll get the pertinent frames within 20 minutes. Stick around, Youk! . . . Crap. You're right. Holding on till 11:00, but that's my cut-off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wait - did he do the whole "Paul, I am your father" thing to you We don't need another Debbie Downer - are you sure you can commit to that sort of forecasting lol Well unlike the rest of you weenies.... when I start getting excited you know it's really time to get amped up. If I'm going nuts in 25 minutes after the GFS you can all get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Errrrr, nm I think 1:30...am and pm...but not 100% certain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Can't go... heading to NYC that night. Heading up to Mt Snow on Thursday though. Can't wait! You should caravan with us to MRG. We could rendezvous on 91. Insiders guided tour of the best mountain on the east coast...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Leon Lett Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well when it comes to forecasting in CT Ryan is pretty damn good, I've really tried to take an approach to forecasting more like his, I hope nobody considers that stealing but the way he goes about things I think is just a great method. He is. I just meant he's conservative of course being a pro on air met, so you know he wants to keep it low as he's been saying...until now perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think 1:30...am and pm...but not 100% certain Pertinent frame should be out near 1 AM this close, I would think. Still wayyy too late though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Best place to get gfs? ncep? or somewhere else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS rollin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wait - did he do the whole "Paul, I am your father" thing to you We don't need another Debbie Downer - are you sure you can commit to that sort of forecasting lol In all honesty though it's always probably best to be on the lower side of things rather than hype everything...unless you have tremendous model support. There is just so much to look at, and I'll admit I don't look at it all, the reason is it's just b/c I don't know how to read everything and I don't know all the links to all the great data. When forecasting a HISTORIC storm you need EVERY model to be showing that sort of solution and just need so much support. Honestly, I do think I went too bullish on my maps, it takes ALOT to get widespread totals like I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Pertinent frame should be out near 1 AM this close, I would think. Still wayyy too late though. yeah...sleepin at night...and workin in the day, so I never catch it when it comes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That's when it comes to severe wx Is that what he told you to call it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Color 00z RGEM maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Best place to get gfs? ncep? or somewhere else? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is that what he told you to call it? This sure beats torch/temp talk when we would get 1 page every...2 days? Snow is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well unlike the rest of you weenies.... when I start getting excited you know it's really time to get amped up. If I'm going nuts in 25 minutes after the GFS you can all get excited. You do know we're adults, don't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is that what he told you to call it? Only a few more months until heavy, heavy tree damage and catastrophic hail damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nighty night. Have fun guys, hope the globals are just as amped. Time to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS a bit more amped through 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Bob the RGEM is tucked in awfully far west on that color map. Surprised to see it that far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 A guess based on the look at 21 hours but to me GFS appears more amped than prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS a bit more amped through 12. Higher heights in the east, stronger s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This sure beats torch/temp talk when we would get 1 page every...2 days? Snow is better LOL, what a nightmare Summer is. Endless Winter for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Only a few more months until heavy, heavy tree damage and catastrophic hail damage. Only a few hundred miles until you hit Oklahoma and actual severe... Snow baby snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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