DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Jerry, it's tough to see the track there but it would appear as though it's close to ACK, no? Looks almost dead on ACK to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I meant "at least" 8 or 10" LOL, I'm going with 15" when all is said and done. Are you going to the GTG in ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Jerry, it's tough to see the track there but it would appear as though it's close to ACK, no? RGEM is the euro track no? My low res graphics would run it SE of ACK but who knows with the 12 hour increments. The high res stuff always seems to show west on the RGEM graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hey guys, New to this board. In Medway, Ma, pretty excited about this storm. Work in Brockton, family in Middleboro, looking like myself and most people I know are going to get drilled by this. I am pretty new at interpreting models but even with my limited knowledge looks like me and most people I know are getting slammed by this. At this range, how much uncertainty should I expect? Prior experience tells me models should have a good hold on track at this point, just curious about QPF and ratiios + location of dry slot since the low is so close to benchmark. Is it possible low will track inland and move rain/snow line at this point? Historical evidence? Seems like most TV meteorologists are being more conservative than the last few storms, despite the fact that this one seems to have far more model support than any of the others with less of a timeframe. I assume that is due to jumping the gun. This system seems far more predictable and "classic" though so I am letting myself get excited. This board is great though - in the past I have read a few of the "major" forums that deal with DC-NE and the amount of crying about delmarva-NJ MAYBE missing storms completely occludes any reveling about NE maybe getting a monster. Good luck to everyone, especially those in the zones I care about ;P. Welcome to the boards. I grew up in Medway, where abouts are you. Medway tends to get hit well in these situations, had 36" in the April Fools Storm. I am close to the Medway police station on Village street, towards the river. Supposed to be at work in Brockton at 7 AM wednesday but looks like a work from home kind of day at this point. By the way, Taunton updated forecast discussion for 10 pm. - WILL THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS? POSSIBLY...HEAVY SNOW WILL BRING 1/4 MILE VSBYS AT TIMES AND WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD AT LEAST GUST NEAR 35 MPH...STRONGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE NEAR BLIZZARD ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF RI AND EASTERN MASS. BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO MOVE TO A BLIZZARD WATCH. Good stuff! hey guys, i'm in medway as well...live off of winthrop street, near the holliston line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is there an easy link for a list of when models run for eastern time zones? I understand the general timestamping but not from all sources involved from ensembles and whatnot... I found this...but someone here probably has a better link http://snowday.community.officelive.com/computermodels.aspx fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RGEM is an enormous hit.....we're getting some heavy snow...some great snow rates regardless of final outcome. That's my favorite part...seriously heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 LOL, I'm going with 15" when all is said and done. Are you going to the GTG in ORH? I think you'll see 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Did you expect him to say anything but that? Stick to your guns. We shall see what comes. Well when it comes to forecasting in CT Ryan is pretty damn good, I've really tried to take an approach to forecasting more like his, I hope nobody considers that stealing but the way he goes about things I think is just a great method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 3 for 3 and it sounds like someone is starting to get excited!!! Wow at the RGEM!!! WOW!!! Crushing run for all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RGEM is an enormous hit.....we're getting some heavy snow...some great snow rates regardless of final outcome. That's my favorite part...seriously heavy snow. Anywhere near the nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think you'll see 4". I think you're counting your chickens before they've hatched.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goeatweeds Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hey guys, i'm in medway as well...live off of winthrop street, near the holliston line A little early to call our area destined for serious stuff but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hey guys how's it looking for SE Mass in Kingston area, at a family party and can't see much on the phone. Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 LOL, I'm going with 15" when all is said and done. Are you going to the GTG in ORH? Can't go... heading to NYC that night. Heading up to Mt Snow on Thursday though. Can't wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think you're counting your chickens before they've hatched.lol Leon Lett Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Harvey Leonard will probably be hitting this hard at 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goeatweeds Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I found this...but someone here probably has a better link http://snowday.commu...utermodels.aspx fixed Exactly what I was looking for, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Anywhere near the nam? It looks like more qpf believe it or not. But pretty close agreement between RGEM/NAM which Will has said is a good sign for agreement. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 3 minutes until the gfs starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow at the RGEM!!! WOW!!! Crushing run for all of us Adding up the 2 maps looks like 1.5-2" for a lot of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 . . . I'm out. Talk to you guys tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 3 minutes until the gfs starts I think it pretty much has to trend west here, but you never know with that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 . . . I'm out. Talk to you guys tomorrow. Seriously? You wait two minutes before the GFS starts to go to bed??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Exactly what I was looking for, thanks! I use NCEP for GFS NAM and Srefs though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hey guys how's it looking for SE Mass in Kingston area, at a family party and can't see much on the phone. Thanks in advance It may flirt with rain for a time, but could be another wet snowbomb down there. Could be electricity fail in a lot of places again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hey guys how's it looking for SE Mass in Kingston area, at a family party and can't see much on the phone. Thanks in advance How close to the coast are you there? I'd say you look pretty good at this point but given your proximity to the coast you may see some pingers and a brief changeover to rain, but those are still up in the air. I'd think the majority of the storm is snow for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well when it comes to forecasting in CT Ryan is pretty damn good, I've really tried to take an approach to forecasting more like his, I hope nobody considers that stealing but the way he goes about things I think is just a great method. I thought Kev was your Svengali. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Time to walk the dog...when I come back GFS will likely deflate the balloon but I suspect it's going to be close to NAM but biased just a bit less robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Seriously? You wait two minutes before the GFS starts to go to bed??? Yeah, you'll get the pertinent frames within 20 minutes. Stick around, Youk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well when it comes to forecasting in CT Ryan is pretty damn good, I've really tried to take an approach to forecasting more like his, I hope nobody considers that stealing but the way he goes about things I think is just a great method. Wait - did he do the whole "Paul, I am your father" thing to you We don't need another Debbie Downer - are you sure you can commit to that sort of forecasting lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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