CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Things look good for a solid thump here on the East Slope, the NAM notwithstanding, but I think there is a decent chance they could trend even better. Think that is reasonable? Sure is an awful lot of spiking of the ball over the NAM. I think 8" or 10" is a good bet for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wednesday AM present... Damn...mesoscales going nuts as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Haha. We lived right down the street from the police station on Charles St. My parents still live there. I am close to the Medway police station on Village street, towards the river. Supposed to be at work in Brockton at 7 AM wednesday but looks like a work from home kind of day at this point. By the way, Taunton updated forecast discussion for 10 pm. - WILL THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS? POSSIBLY...HEAVY SNOW WILL BRING 1/4 MILE VSBYS AT TIMES AND WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD AT LEAST GUST NEAR 35 MPH...STRONGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE NEAR BLIZZARD ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF RI AND EASTERN MASS. BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO MOVE TO A BLIZZARD WATCH. Good stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yesterdays? It updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 it wasn't a stab at you. i, for one, actually like short posts. i didn't think it was a stab - really. i just don't have it in me tonight. it's big. also, consider that 48 frame...though the QPF is lighter, you are actually more efficiently accumulating relative to rad intensity during that phase of the event. .35"liq equiv in an hour is a solid 4-6" of snow in backside cold compression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yesterdays? Whoops, forget it ... refresh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is this the correct up to date map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Cool, best of luck to you! Where in the area do you live? North Cumberland, RI. I hate the fact I will be in LA for this. Possibly, only the FORTH time in 120 years that 2 15" Plus storms hit within a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 somewhere in tolland a little weenie in feetie pjs just tossed and turned in bed like he was having a bad dream. LOL, that was really funny Phil. I can totally picture a little sleep twitch happening on Mt. Tolland. Kev talking in his sleep " To low.. Rip and read ....Rip and read...." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wednesday AM present... And much more during the day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Here's the 36 hour forecast (so about this time range) the other day. Yeah I know the setups all different etc etc, but it's a mid level low with a vort max spinning off the SE which kicks off a low that was going to hit the Cape kind of. Anyway, the first panel is the 36 hour 500mb forecast, the 2nd is the 0z init 36 hours later. Slight change. I think if there's a thought better to post it now, pre the other models. They all did it to an extent the other day. Not a forecast, not saying this is going to happen, but it's a worthy addition to the discussion at 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 yes Alright. Thanks for the input! I got swayed a bit just b/c for the weekend stuff I totally was too low...I get so annoyed with myself, one event I'm too high, the next I'm too low, then I'm too high. But once again my fetish for the NAM kicks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is this the correct up to date map? Yes'm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Do you think my 10-20'' call for CT (I went 8-16'' for far W. CT) is a bit too aggressive? I think you almost sound sort of confident about that call. Don't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think 8" or 10" is a good bet for you OOfff ! Even Box's map plants a 12.5" snowfall here. Kev may be right about you after all.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 I am close to the Medway police station on Village street, towards the river. Supposed to be at work in Brockton at 7 AM wednesday but looks like a work from home kind of day at this point. By the way, Taunton updated forecast discussion for 10 pm. - WILL THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS? POSSIBLY...HEAVY SNOW WILL BRING 1/4 MILE VSBYS AT TIMES AND WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD AT LEAST GUST NEAR 35 MPH...STRONGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE NEAR BLIZZARD ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF RI AND EASTERN MASS. BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO MOVE TO A BLIZZARD WATCH. Good stuff! this is the portion of the changed discussion. You can see it where it enclosed by these && && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... -- Changed Discussion --MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE DEWPOINTS TO BETTER ALIGN THEM WITH CURRENT TRENDS. THIS LOWERED DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR TWO MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH A PATCH OF CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE BERKSHIRES. WINDS INLAND ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS...MIN TEMPS SHOULD REACH DOWN TO THAT LEVEL AWAY FROM THE COAST.-- End Changed Discussion -- && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RGEM at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goeatweeds Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is there an easy link for a list of when models run for eastern time zones? I understand the general timestamping but not from all sources involved from ensembles and whatnot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 OOfff ! Even Box's map plants a 12.5" snowfall here. Kev may be right about you after all.lol I meant "at least" 8 or 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Alright. Thanks for the input! I got swayed a bit just b/c for the weekend stuff I totally was too low...I get so annoyed with myself, one event I'm too high, the next I'm too low, then I'm too high. But once again my fetish for the NAM kicks in. Did you expect him to say anything but that? Stick to your guns. We shall see what comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Man, if we can get as many inches per hour as posts per minute right now, we're golden! Wooow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow at the RGEM!!! WOW!!! Crushing run for all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow at the RGEM!!! WOW!!! Crushing run for all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Man, if we can get as many inches per hour as posts per minute right now, we're golden! Wooow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Jerry, it's tough to see the track there but it would appear as though it's close to ACK, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think you almost sound sort of confident about that call. Don't you? I probably wouldn't break the state apart yet. I def feel that I could be in a sort of screw zone if the best deformation zone sets up west of here in the hills and then the CCB starts ripping like crazy NE of here up toward Will and Ray. That's why I think using 8" or something as a low bound is a good plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow at the RGEM!!! WOW!!! Crushing run for all of us What's shocking for this run on the RGEM - it's cold. I mean usually the RGEM has the r/s warmth way NW...brrr. RGEM/NAM were tucked the furthest NW last time too, but this is close to the euro track I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Jerry, it's tough to see the track there but it would appear as though it's close to ACK, no? Yeah ACK or ACK sound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 this is the portion of the changed discussion. You can see it where it enclosed by these && && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... -- Changed Discussion --MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE DEWPOINTS TO BETTER ALIGN THEM WITH CURRENT TRENDS. THIS LOWERED DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR TWO MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH A PATCH OF CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE BERKSHIRES. WINDS INLAND ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS...MIN TEMPS SHOULD REACH DOWN TO THAT LEVEL AWAY FROM THE COAST.-- End Changed Discussion -- && Missed more of the discussion, my bad. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT NE OF THE REGION. LEFTOVER WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS...TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD AS A NORTH WIND TRAJECTORY...LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO GUSTY WINDS ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC BUT SHOULD NOTE GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY...A COLD BUT DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE. H925 TEMPERATURES FROM -5 TO -9C GENERALLY SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 20S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOME FLY IN THE OINTMENT POSSIBLE AS THE GFS/ECMWF FORM AN INVERTED TROUGH WEST OF THE OLD COASTAL STORM...WHICH COULD BRING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE TURNING COLDER FOR FRIDAY AS 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES DROP INTO THE 510S. SATURDAY...A COLD BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHOULD NOTE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DAILY HIGHS WILL STILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SOME DIFFERENCES DEVELOP AMONGST THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS/ECMWF BRING WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING THAN THE GFS AND IN FACT STALLS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE COLD FRONT FURTHER EAST. NOTING THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE RESOLVING PACIFIC JET STREAM ENERGY WHILE THE GFS IS FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. PLAN ON SIDING WITH THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF AS IT DEVELOPS A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH. THERMAL PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME. WILL ALSO INCLUDE CHANCE POPS FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME AND FOLLOW HPC GUIDANCE.-- End Changed Discussion -- && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think you almost sound sort of confident about that call. Don't you? Well yes I do after seeing the NAM but it's no secret I have a huge fetish for the NAM...not sure why I still have a TON of work to do though when it comes to forecasting, it;s one thing to have knowledge about the weather but it's another thing to be a great forecaster. I'll admit though up until this past year really I haven;t done my best to work on gaining better forecasting skills so I've taken it upon myself to do what I need to do, even if it means I make myself look stupid at times. I just feel experience will help me out more than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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