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New England Storm Dicussion - January 11-12


Baroclinic Zone

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If I had to guess an area to feel "comfortable" in..(not necessarily the max), I'd say near BOS up to Ray and wsw through ORH into CT. I'm concerned with a track close to the Cape for places in se mass, but they could still get the jackpot...I'm just talking about the areas that should do well, taking everything into account.

Sketch a weenie map

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If I had to guess an area to feel "comfortable" in..(not necessarily the max), I'd say near BOS up to Ray and wsw through ORH into CT. I'm concerned with a track close to the Cape for places in se mass, but they could still get the jackpot...I'm just talking about the areas that should do well, taking everything into account.

Analogy time, Will Scooter Brian Tippy the Met?

Headed out to go bowling at Foxwoods new off the hook awesome lanes, looks like my Weekend goes to five days, hate that lol

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Man the Berks need snow, hope they get some high ratios, nice inflow should put a nice max zone at 2k

Northern Berks/S.VT have been shemped as of late. That's why I've been skiing at Catamount (s.Berks). B'east should get a shot in the arm. Skied at Magic 2 weeks ago and had some major core shots taken out of my rock skis. How was your first time back on the snow? Feeling good?

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If I had to guess an area to feel "comfortable" in..(not necessarily the max), I'd say near BOS up to Ray and wsw through ORH into CT. I'm concerned with a track close to the Cape for places in se mass, but they could still get the jackpot...I'm just talking about the areas that should do well, taking everything into account.

It seems we are in a good place here. In past winters when storms ran aground in NE, the NAM always was the first to pick it up as a trend. But there doesn't seem to be a trend, and we seem to win no matter what track prevails.

I am getting fired up. Especially because it is a daylight storm.

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I disagree, but at least is in consideration -

WILL THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS?

POSSIBLY...HEAVY SNOW WILL BRING 1/4 MILE VSBYS AT TIMES AND WINDS

ALONG THE COAST SHOULD AT LEAST GUST NEAR 35 MPH...STRONGER ON THE

CAPE AND ISLANDS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE NEAR BLIZZARD ESPECIALLY

IN PARTS OF RI AND EASTERN MASS. BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT

SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO MOVE TO A BLIZZARD WATCH.

Esp in EMA I think this shouldn't be a problem but I can see them waiting after what happened the other night. There's no harm in the benefit of one more full run.

John, the HPC Winter Graphics based off the SREF's don't show much in the way of Blizzard Criteria for the majority of us right now. That could change in the next 24h though.

http://www.hpc.ncep....impactgraphics/

Man the Berks need snow, hope they get some high ratios, nice inflow should put a nice max zone at 2k

Yikes.

Running a little skimpy there?

Every resort just about is running skimpy...make snow or bust.

I love Burke way up in the northeast kingdom...only 30% of the trails are open.

http://skiburke.com/main/

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Upton tosses Wiz a weenie and discusses blizzard conditions...

WITH THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM...THERE IS THE

POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW. CONDITIONS DON`T LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE

AS THEY DID WITH THE BLIZZARD IN LATE DEC...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT

HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TUE NIGHT AND WILL BECOME STRONGEST ON

WED AS THEY BACK TO THE NW. THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW DOES

NOT APPEAR TO COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...BUT NEAR

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE

EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 6 AND 11 INCHES IN NE NJ...THE LOWER

HUDSON VALLEY AND NYC WHILE 10 TO 15 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS LI

AND SOUTHERN CT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW

BANDS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE ON THE WESTERN ENVELOPE OF SOLNS

AND IF THIS IS REALIZED THERE COULD BE SOME MIX OF PRECIP ON THE

EAST END OF LONG ISLAND...BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS AT

THIS TIME.

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It seems we are in a good place here. In past winters when storms ran aground in NE, the NAM always was the first to pick it up as a trend. But there doesn't seem to be a trend, and we seem to win no matter what track prevails.

I am getting fired up. Especially because it is a daylight storm.

I wouldn't like a NAM track, but I think even an outer Cape track would be ok for us. The GFS ensembles start the low east and then almost move it nnw and then more n-nne. If the low is bombing along the 70W line, that could be great for us.

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Northern Berks/S.VT have been shemped as of late. That's why I've been skiing at Catamount (s.Berks). B'east should get a shot in the arm. Skied at Magic 2 weeks ago and had some major core shots taken out of my rock skis. How was your first time back on the snow? Feeling good?

Unbelievable great, no angst at all, place was great for what was open cept Flying cloud which was a Pete glacial special, surprised me too we had skied everything else then hit that, came over the top hard and had momentary oh sh it moment. You guys need snow.

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Unbelievable great, no angst at all, place was great for what was open cept Flying cloud which was a Pete glacial special, surprised me too we had skied everything else then hit that, came over the top hard and had momentary oh sh it moment. You guys need snow.

Looks like MRG is the place to be, unless I"m misreading this they got 18" of snow in the last 24 hours.

http://www.madriverglen.com/?Page=conditions.php

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I actually think if we were to see blizzard watch/warnings go out it would just be the issuance of blizzard warnings, just b/c it would probably be very close to the start of the event before there is a better idea of where the best chance is of seeing prolonged blizzard conditions.

While I do think winds may be underplayed somewhat I don't think it's enough to cause widespread blizzard conditions or enough of a threat to issue blizzard watches right now. Any blizzard conditions will probably be more localized than anything.

We'll see though, still some time to iron out these details.

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