40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Mets et al... You need to go with the upper end of the acc range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Ray should be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goeatweeds Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hey guys, New to this board. In Medway, Ma, pretty excited about this storm. Work in Brockton, family in Middleboro, looking like myself and most people I know are going to get drilled by this. I am pretty new at interpreting models but even with my limited knowledge looks like me and most people I know are getting slammed by this. At this range, how much uncertainty should I expect? Prior experience tells me models should have a good hold on track at this point, just curious about QPF and ratiios + location of dry slot since the low is so close to benchmark. Is it possible low will track inland and move rain/snow line at this point? Historical evidence? Seems like most TV meteorologists are being more conservative than the last few storms, despite the fact that this one seems to have far more model support than any of the others with less of a timeframe. I assume that is due to jumping the gun. This system seems far more predictable and "classic" though so I am letting myself get excited. This board is great though - in the past I have read a few of the "major" forums that deal with DC-NE and the amount of crying about delmarva-NJ MAYBE missing storms completely occludes any reveling about NE maybe getting a monster. Good luck to everyone, especially those in the zones I care about ;P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Mets et al... You need to go with the upper end of the acc range. Damn, do you drop some weenie bombs in here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Ray should be happy. Yes he should, the NAM crushes him and the Bruins scored 4 goals in the final 4 minutes to win 4-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Mets et al... You need to go with the upper end of the acc range. You said it a couple days ago, you FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 that might have been your shortest post ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hey guys, New to this board. In Medway, Ma, pretty excited about this storm. Work in Brockton, family in Middleboro, looking like myself and most people I know are going to get drilled by this. I am pretty new at interpreting models but even with my limited knowledge looks like me and most people I know are getting slammed by this. At this range, how much uncertainty should I expect? Prior experience tells me models should have a good hold on track at this point, just curious about QPF and ratiios + location of dry slot since the low is so close to benchmark. Is it possible low will track inland and move rain/snow line at this point? Historical evidence? Seems like most TV meteorologists are being more conservative than the last few storms, despite the fact that this one seems to have far more model support than any of the others with less of a timeframe. I assume that is due to jumping the gun. This system seems far more predictable and "classic" though so I am letting myself get excited. This board is great though - in the past I have read a few of the "major" forums that deal with DC-NE and the amount of crying about delmarva-NJ MAYBE missing storms completely occludes any reveling about NE maybe getting a monster. Good luck to everyone, especially those in the zones I care about ;P. Welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The big issue for CT/LI/W MA is going to be how fast does the mid level low close. If it closes on the Jersey Shore this thing goes through ACK sound and crushes us. If it takes a bit longer to close like the GFS has been showing then it's wagons NE to KGAY for the big snows. I'm comfortable in 8"+ in most of CT... but I'm not sold on widespread 12"+ just yet. I'm getting there though and the SREFs ticking NW helped me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The big issue for CT/LI/W MA is going to be how fast does the mid level low close. If it closes on the Jersey Shore this thing goes through ACK sound and crushes us. If it takes a bit longer to close like the GFS has been showing then it's wagons NE to KGAY for the big snows. I'm comfortable in 8"+ in most of CT... but I'm not sold on widespread 12"+ just yet. I'm getting there though and the SREFs ticking NW helped me. Don't have to tell you which solution i am pulling for...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Don't know if this was posted but here it is anyways. 21z SREF's mean QPF thru 60h. Definitely some members skewing the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 if the gfs shows something close to the nam i bet youll change your mind The big issue for CT/LI/W MA is going to be how fast does the mid level low close. If it closes on the Jersey Shore this thing goes through ACK sound and crushes us. If it takes a bit longer to close like the GFS has been showing then it's wagons NE to KGAY for the big snows. I'm comfortable in 8"+ in most of CT... but I'm not sold on widespread 12"+ just yet. I'm getting there though and the SREFs ticking NW helped me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Welcome to the boards. I grew up in Medway, where abouts are you. Medway tends to get hit well in these situations, had 36" in the April Fools Storm. Hey guys, New to this board. In Medway, Ma, pretty excited about this storm. Work in Brockton, family in Middleboro, looking like myself and most people I know are going to get drilled by this. I am pretty new at interpreting models but even with my limited knowledge looks like me and most people I know are getting slammed by this. At this range, how much uncertainty should I expect? Prior experience tells me models should have a good hold on track at this point, just curious about QPF and ratiios + location of dry slot since the low is so close to benchmark. Is it possible low will track inland and move rain/snow line at this point? Historical evidence? Seems like most TV meteorologists are being more conservative than the last few storms, despite the fact that this one seems to have far more model support than any of the others with less of a timeframe. I assume that is due to jumping the gun. This system seems far more predictable and "classic" though so I am letting myself get excited. This board is great though - in the past I have read a few of the "major" forums that deal with DC-NE and the amount of crying about delmarva-NJ MAYBE missing storms completely occludes any reveling about NE maybe getting a monster. Good luck to everyone, especially those in the zones I care about ;P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 that might have been your shortest post ever. i don't have the energy to run down all the reasons that I have already outlined a half a dozen times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The big issue for CT/LI/W MA is going to be how fast does the mid level low close. If it closes on the Jersey Shore this thing goes through ACK sound and crushes us. If it takes a bit longer to close like the GFS has been showing then it's wagons NE to KGAY for the big snows. I'm comfortable in 8"+ in most of CT... but I'm not sold on widespread 12"+ just yet. I'm getting there though and the SREFs ticking NW helped me. somewhere in tolland a little weenie in feetie pjs just tossed and turned in bed like he was having a bad dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yes he should, the NAM crushes him and the Bruins scored 4 goals in the final 4 minutes to win 4-2. Just looked at the NAM, and visibility is reduced to about 1\4 mile in Goosebumps from head to toe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The big issue for CT/LI/W MA is going to be how fast does the mid level low close. If it closes on the Jersey Shore this thing goes through ACK sound and crushes us. If it takes a bit longer to close like the GFS has been showing then it's wagons NE to KGAY for the big snows. I'm comfortable in 8"+ in most of CT... but I'm not sold on widespread 12"+ just yet. I'm getting there though and the SREFs ticking NW helped me. Do you think my 10-20'' call for CT (I went 8-16'' for far W. CT) is a bit too aggressive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i don't have the energy to run down all the reasons that I have already outlined a half a dozen times. it wasn't a stab at you. i, for one, actually like short posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The big issue for CT/LI/W MA is going to be how fast does the mid level low close. If it closes on the Jersey Shore this thing goes through ACK sound and crushes us. If it takes a bit longer to close like the GFS has been showing then it's wagons NE to KGAY for the big snows. I'm comfortable in 8"+ in most of CT... but I'm not sold on widespread 12"+ just yet. I'm getting there though and the SREFs ticking NW helped me. agreed. and i think u could add NYC in to the first example. when do you think models are firm on this....tommorrow 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Welcome! What he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You bet if the gfs shows something close to the nam i bet youll change your mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The big issue for CT/LI/W MA is going to be how fast does the mid level low close. If it closes on the Jersey Shore this thing goes through ACK sound and crushes us. If it takes a bit longer to close like the GFS has been showing then it's wagons NE to KGAY for the big snows. I'm comfortable in 8"+ in most of CT... but I'm not sold on widespread 12"+ just yet. I'm getting there though and the SREFs ticking NW helped me. Things look good for a solid thump here on the East Slope, the NAM notwithstanding, but I think there is a decent chance they could trend even better. Think that is reasonable? Sure is an awful lot of spiking of the ball over the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Do you think my 10-20'' call for CT (I went 8-16'' for far W. CT) is a bit too aggressive? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goeatweeds Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Welcome to the boards. I grew up in Medway, where abouts are you. Medway tends to get hit well in these situations, had 36" in the April Fools Storm. I am close to the Medway police station on Village street, towards the river. Supposed to be at work in Brockton at 7 AM wednesday but looks like a work from home kind of day at this point. By the way, Taunton updated forecast discussion for 10 pm. - WILL THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS? POSSIBLY...HEAVY SNOW WILL BRING 1/4 MILE VSBYS AT TIMES AND WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD AT LEAST GUST NEAR 35 MPH...STRONGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE NEAR BLIZZARD ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF RI AND EASTERN MASS. BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO MOVE TO A BLIZZARD WATCH. Good stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 00z is of to an orgasmic, $shot start; SREF.....perfect......NAM.....perfect. Wow.....now all I need if for the cf to set up on rt 128 and a pint of 101 and I'll die happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wednesday AM present... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You bet [rev] Rippppp and reeeaaaaddd [/rev] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Congratulations guys. Wish I was there to enjoy this one with you all. After last year, this winter is much deserved for SNE. The Mid Atlantic is learning that Karma is a beyotch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Don't know if this was posted but here it is anyways. 21z SREF's mean QPF thru 60h. Definitely some members skewing the mean. Yesterdays? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just looked at the NAM, and visibility is reduced to about 1\4 mile in Goosebumps from head to toe. I would feel pretty good if I were you, you just might be in a great spot. You're much familiar with your area though than I ever will be and know what it takes for your area to come close to the jackpot so perhaps I'm wrong but you should do pretty damn well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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